STOCK MARKET CONSEQUENCES OF POLITICAL VIBRANCY

We define areas with strong geographic ties to powerful politicians as politically vibrant and show that they are characterized by greater value-relevant information generation and symptomatic of equity market segmentation. Political vibrancy entails greater levels of local bias and local comovement and has two important return predictability implications. First, it enhances local institutions’ informational advantages; their trades’ ability to forecast local stock returns exceeds that of nonlocal institutions. Second, in support of the view that information diffuses slowly into prices, stock returns of firms from politically vibrant areas predict returns of similar firms in other areas.     

The Value of Investor Protection: Firm Evidence from Cross-Border Mergers

International law prescribes that in a cross-border acquisitionof 100% of the target shares, the target firm becomes a nationalof the country of the acquiror, and consequently subject toits corporate governance system. Therefore, cross-border mergersprovide a natural experiment to analyze the effects of changesin corporate governance on firm value. We construct measuresof the change in investor protection in a sample of 506 acquisitionsfrom 39 countries. We find that the better the shareholder protectionand accounting standards in the acquiror's country, the higherthe merger premium in cross-border mergers relative to matchingdomestic acquisitions.     

Indirect tax harmonization and global public goods

This paper identifies conditions under which, starting from any tax-distorting equilibrium, destination- and origin-based indirect tax-harmonizing reforms are potentially Pareto improving in the presence of global public goods. The first condition (unrequited transfers between governments) requires that transfers are designed in such a way that the marginal valuations of the global public goods are equalized, whereas the second (conditional revenue changes) requires that the change in global tax revenues, as a consequence of tax harmonization, is consistent with the under/over-provision of global public goods relative to the (modified) Samuelson rule. Under these conditions, tax harmonization results in redistributing the gains from a reduction in global deadweight loss and any changes in global tax revenues according to the Pareto principle. And this is the case independently of the tax principle in place (destination or origin).     

The dynamics of crop sectors in regional development: The case of tobacco

The importance of specific crop sectors can be better cast in a broader framework to account for intersectoral effects. Input-output analysis can provide this framework to assess the importance of the controversial crop, tobacco. In this respect, employment, income, and output multipliers were estimated to demonstrate the dynamics of the sector at the regional and national levels. Furthermore, the impact of totally eliminating tobacco cultivation was computed. Results clearly demonstrate the significance of the tobacco sector and its interrelation with the rest of the economic sectors.This study was partially financed by the Portuguese Association of Tobacco Producers.     

R&D contribution in TFP growth of Greek industry: A limited information likelihood approach

We provide a novel panel model to decompose total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the Greek industry at the firm level while we tackle the contribution of R&D. We, therefore, opt for parametric methodology that provides statistical inference and would validate the results. Our modeling departs from prior strong assumptions such as error terms across firms being independent. In fact, we provide a novel limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation method that adequately deals with the issue of endogeneity and model misspecification. We demonstrate that our model detects variability in terms of TFP growth components across industries and firms. Our results show that R&D would enhance TFP of Greek firms, albeit the crisis has had a detrimental impact. Financial ratios such as liquidity and solvency ratios also affect TFP as we demonstrate that both would enhance TFP. The solvency ratio is important as it provides an estimate of whether the firm can cope with debt. We also note variability across small versus medium and large firms and report that small firms are more productive and spend more of their revenues on R&D. In terms of policy, our evidence warrants higher R&D spending to enhance TFP growth, though R&D funding is a concern.     

Macroprudential policy and the inward transmission of monetary policy: The case of Chile,Mexico, and Russia

This paper studies whether domestic macroprudential policy may attenuate the inward transmission of monetary policy shocks from the United States to domestic bank lending growth in three emerging market economies—Chile, Mexico, and Russia. Identification relies on banks’ heterogeneous exposure to prudential policies and the fact that foreign monetary policy shocks are exogenous from the perspective of these economies. After analyzing the effects of the aggregate domestic prudential policy stance, we focus on specific prudential policies targeting mortgage and consumer loans, as well as foreign‐currency deposits. Although our overall results are mixed, we find evidence that the strength of international monetary policy spillovers varies depending on the stance of domestic macroprudential policy. In particular, a tighter reserve requirement stance over foreign‐currency deposits in Chile dampens the effect of an international monetary policy shock on domestic local‐currency lending, but reinforces that on foreign‐currency lending, whereas in Russia, it dampens the effect on both local‐currency and foreign‐currency lending, although to different degrees. Prudential policies targeting the asset side of banks’ balance sheets, such as mortgage loans or consumer credit, are found to amplify international monetary policy spillovers in some cases and attenuate it in others, depending on the country context.     

A high-frequency analysis of price resolution and pricing barriers in equities on the adoption of a new currency

We use ultra high frequency (trade by trade) data to demonstrate that equity price clustering and pricing predictability around psychologically important prices in Greece switches away from drachma-focused with the introduction of the euro, but does not immediately switch to euro-clustering. The change in trader price focus around the euro introduction addresses an open debate in the clustering literature on whether the presence of clustering is a bias related to the current prices or anchoring to past prices. Our findings of a decline in drachma clustering, but lack of switch to euro effects supports the case for clustering being a trading feature that is slow to transfer to new pricing regimes. A key advantage of the ultra high frequency dataset is we are also able to demonstrate the presence of psychological pricing barriers related to each currency that are not detectable in daily data.     

Optimum Growth and Carbon Policies with Lags in the Climate System

We study the optimal carbon tax in an economy in which climate change, stemming from polluting non-renewable resource, affects the economy’s growth potential. Our main contribution is to introduce and explore the natural time lag of the climate system between emissions and damages to capital accumulation in an endogenous growth setting. This allows us to investigate how optimal climate policy, and its interplay with climate dynamics, affect long-run growth and the transition of the economy towards it. Without pollution decay, a higher speed of emissions diffusion steepens the growth profile of the economy. With pollution decay, this leads to lower short-run but higher long-run economic growth during transition. Poor understanding of the emissions diffusion process leads to suboptimal carbon taxes, resource extraction and growth.     

AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF UNCERTAINTY IN COORDINATION GAMES

Global games and Poisson games have been proposed to address equilibrium indeterminacy in Common Knowledge Coordination games. The present study investigates in a controlled setup, using as controls Common Knowledge games, whether idiosyncratic uncertainty about economic fundamentals (Global games) or uncertainty about the number of actual players (Poisson games) may influence subjects' behavior. We find that uncertainty about the number of actual players has more influence on subjects' behavior than idiosyncratic uncertainty about economic fundamentals. Furthermore, subjects' behavior under Poisson population‐size uncertainty is closer to the respective theoretical prediction than subjects' behavior under idiosyncratic uncertainty about economic fundamentals.