关于深化成人高校改革的新思考

随着我省社会经济在新的世纪开始新的一轮大发展时期的到来,成人高等教育也迎来了自己发展的新机遇。但成人高校必须首先解决好目前面临的有关属性、体制、投入、质量、管理和效益等一系列关系到自身存亡和发展的重大问题,才能利用好机遇,取得新的发展。成人高校发展的出路在改革。目前要从定性定位、改革体制、确定发展方向和发展模式、理顺内部管理、构建新体系几方面着手,推进成人高校的宏观和微观改革,从而使成人高校取得新的发展,为发展我省高等教育、为我省社会发展和经济建设发挥更大作用。     

“关税逆效应”刍议

针对我国已签署的《入世议定书》中相关的关税减让承诺,分析其对中国市场经济产生的影 响。结合我国的现状,对我国今后市场经济的发展作了相关论证。     

The stability of the Turkish Phillips curve and alternative regime shifting models

This article, presents empirical evidence supporting instability of the Phillips curve in Turkey. We employ the multiple structural break models and the Markov-switching models and then evaluate the performance of the two models. The data pertain to the monthly inflation rate in Turkey for the period of 1987 to 2004. The results show that the Turkish Phillips curve is not linear. There exists no evidence on the asymmetry in the inflation response to output gap. The persistence of inflation is found to be much lower than in linear models. After 2001, slight decline in persistence of inflation is observed. There exits weaker support for the Phillips curve for the periods where the policymakers attempt to take the advantage of the tradeoff between output and inflation relationship.     

Quantifying the impact of economic crises on infant mortality in advanced economies

Policy makers rely on a mix of government spending and tax cuts to address the imbalances in the economy during an economic crisis, by promoting price stability and renewed economic growth. However, little discussion appears to focus explicitly on quantifying the cost of economic crises in terms of human lives, especially the lives of the most vulnerable members of society, infants. Using a statistical approach that is robust to the increases of mortality in outlying years, we quantify the effect that economic crises, periods of prolonged economic recession, have on infant mortality. Moreover, we investigate whether different levels of public spending on health across advanced industrialized democracies can mitigate the impact of crises on infant mortality. We find that economic crises are extremely costly and lead to a more than proportional increase in infant mortality in the short-run. Substantial public spending on health is required in order to limit their impact.     

Budget deficits,money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence

The paper investigates the long-run relationships between budget deficits, inflation and monetary growth in Turkey considering two alternative trivariate systems corresponding to the narrowest and the broadest monetary aggregates. While the joint endogeneity of money and inflation rejects the validity of the monetarist view, lack of a direct relationship between inflation and budget deficits makes the pure fiscal theory explanations illegitimate for the Turkish case. Consistent with the policy regime of financing domestic debt through the commercial banking system, budget deficits lead to a growth not of currency seigniorage but of broad money in Turkey. This mode of deficit financing, leading to the creation of near money and restricting the scope for an effective monetary policy, may not be sustainable, as the government securities/broad money ratio cannot grow without limit.     

The impact from changes in stock market valuations on investment: new economy versus old economy

This paper investigates whether there is a different impact from changes in ‘new’ and ‘old’ economy stock valuations on private investment for seven OECD economies. A vector autoregressive model is estimated for each individual country, using quarterly data over the period 1990–2000. It is found that the impact from changes in valuations of new economy stocks to investment is roughly the same in North America and in the United Kingdom as in continental Europe. By contrast, the impact from changes in old economy stock valuations on investment is, in general, larger in North America and in the United Kingdom than in continental Europe. Finally, the results suggest that in continental Europe the impact on investment from changes in the valuation of new economy stocks is bigger than for old economy stocks, whereas for North America and the United Kingdom, the impact is more similar.     

Why do diners tip: rule-of-thumb or valuation of service?

When diners decide how much to tip, is the decision based on social convention or on conscientious appraisal of server productivity? Previous researchers in economics and social psychology are generally inconclusive on this question. A common finding in the literature is that tip size and service quality are unrelated, a result usually obtained from OLS regressions. OLS is only appropriate if service quality is exogenous. It is argued that service quality is very likely endogenous in any regression of tip size; good quality encourages good tips, but server expectations of good tips encourage good quality. This simultaneity is accounted for by jointly estimating percentage tips and customer rankings of service quality on a sample of 247 diners in a Central Minnesota restaurant. Included are explanatory variables consistent with both the social psychology and economic views of tipping. In contrast to previous studies, it is found that service quality significantly affects tip size and when servers expect higher tips, customers rank service quality higher. Also it is found that patronage frequency and coupon redemption have no effect on percentage tips, but server gender influences quality significantly. It is concluded that the results are generally supportive of an economic hypothesis of tipping.     

浅析统计信息失真的原因及对策

近年来一些领域和地方的统计信息失真现象严重,极大地影响了国家决策部门的决策行为,对国民经济的有效运行带来了严重的负面影响。本文对我国统计信息失真的原因进行了剖析,进而有针对性地提出了提高统计信息质量的相应对策。     

内部控制体系建设中的几点体会——以中国石油股份公司内控建设为例

本文介绍了内部控制体系的内容,从领导、环境、业务流程、制度建设、信息系统建设、内部控制的过程、员工素质、内部控制工作成果八个角度对内部控制体系的建设谈了自己的体会。     

国际工程合同的评析与借鉴

国际工程合同为我们提供了建造合同、设计和建造合同、EPC/交钥匙合同等多种可供选择的工程承包模式,探讨国际工程合同的优势和缺陷,明确其应用范围,对于克服我国工程承包合同存在的内容简单;操作性不强等问题有积极的意义。