Social-Centric Development of Multi-Agent Architectures

In the past few years, software applications have increased in complexity and in stakeholders' expectations principally due to new Internet-centric application areas, such as e-business, web services, ubiquitous computing, and peer-to-peer networks. Multi-agent systems (MAS) architectures have gained popularity for developing such software. Unfortunately, despite considerable work in software architecture during the past decade, few research efforts have aimed at truly defining frameworks for agent-based architectural design. Considering that MAS architecture is conceived as a society of software agents, this article overviews a social-driven design approach dedicated to build up agent-based systems. The approach is based on organizational structures and social patterns to define agent architectures notably in the context of e-business system design.     

Environmental Dynamism as a Moderator of Familiness and Performance in Mexican SMEs

This research explores how the environmental dynamism affects the relationship between familiness and a family firm’s performance in an emerging economy. To achieve this goal, we used an instrument to measure three familiness theoretical dimensions (process, human, and organizational resources). To collect data, we interviewed owners of family firms characterized as SMEs in México. Contrary to what is expected, our findings suggest that familiness, as a source of competitive advantage for family firms, may be more suitable in stable environments characterized by certainty of conditions. In other words, the effect of familiness on a family firm’s performance diminishes in highly dynamic environments.     

BUBBLES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND MONETARY POLICY

We evaluate the macroeconomic performance of different monetary policy rules when there are bubbles in the exchange rate. We do this in the context of a non‐linear rational expectations model. The exchange rate is allowed to deviate from its fundamental value and the persistence of the deviation is modeled as a Markov switching process. Our results suggest that reacting to exchange rate movements does not significantly improve welfare. However, taking into account the switching nature of the economy may be more beneficial.     

Approximation of Asymmetric Multivariate Return Distributions

We develop a new method to approximate the asymmetric multivariate probability density function (pdf) of financial asset returns by using series expansions; a rate of convergence for the mean absolute error of this approximation is also provided. We then propose the method of maximum likelihood and the generalized method of moments to estimate the parameters of the approximated pdf. A Monte-Carlo experiment corroborates the feasibility of our approach.     

The determinants of FDI in Turkey: A Markov Regime-Switching approach

This paper considers movements of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in Turkey, and therefore, to understand the dynamics of FDI, runs several nonlinear FDI equations in which the basic determinants of FDI in Turkey are determined through Markov Regime-Switching Models (MSMs). The statistical properties of Markov Regime-Switching time series models are more desirable than those of conventional time series or panel regression models. Through these properties of MSMs, i) one can observe structural changes, if they exist, in FDI equations through time, ii) if, in fact, the true FDI regression equation follows a nonlinear relationship, MSMs fit data better than the linear models. This paper eventually follows maximum likelihood methodology of Markov Regime-Switching Model (MSM) to search for the possible structural changes in level and/or trends and possible changes in parameters of independent variables of FDI–MSM equations through the transition probabilities. In conclusion, this paper yields the outcome that Turkish FDI growth equation has significant structural changes in level and trend and that has significant coefficient shifts in explanatory variables. These explanatory variables are Turkish GDP Growth, Labor Cost, the Electricity Price Growth, the growth in average prices of High Sulphur Fuel Oil, Cooking Coal, Steam Coal and Natural Gas, Export Growth, Import Growth, Discount Rate and Country Risk Indexes for Turkey, US and EU, respectively, within the time interval from 1988 first quarter to 2010 second quarter.     

Sources of productivity differentials in manufacturing in post-transition urban South-East Europe

The paper analyses the effects of urbanization and localisation economies on manufacturing firms’ productivity across urban landscapes in post-transition South-East European (SEE) countries. Fixed-effects panel data estimations on a large sample of firms show that the factors accounting for productivity advantages of manufacturing firms in urban post-transition SEE are related to the firms and to the environment in which these firms operate. Firms located in diversified cities benefit from a productivity premium generated in this type of agglomeration, while no evidence was found that the relative specialization across industries has any effect on firm productivity levels.     

商业银行与中小企业共赢之道——供应链融资

供应链融资是近年来全球商业银行界最关注的一项金融业务。我国的商业银行通过向供应链的各个环节提供融资支持,促进了中小企业发展和贸易复苏,为我国经济摆脱金融危机负面影响起到了积极的促进作用,商业银行的客户基础和利润来源也得以扩展。     

外部不平衡:渐近修复、阶段修复

自G20多伦多和首尔峰会以来,如何衡量并约束全球经济失衡已成为各国争论的焦点问题。2011年2月在巴黎召开的G20会议强调已经就评估世界经济失衡的指标达成初步共识,但没有涉及到如何调整现存的以美元为主导的国际货币体系所具有的内在不稳定性,也没有针对国际金融体系的不足继续提出有针对性的矫正措施。     

A note on steady-state price:Output relationships

Two sufficient conditions for non-perverse steady-state price: net output relationships are derived: (i) weak substitutability of each produced input, both with respect to other produced inputs and with respect to primary factor inputs, and (ii) constancy of the produced-input: output coefficients.     

房地产融资的创新大道——房地产业融资格局备受挑战

自2001年央行发布“195号文件”以来，一系列规范房地产市场的政策相继出台，使得近来房地产商过分依赖银行贷款的特定融资格局受到很大的挑战。长期以来，贷款作为我国房地产融资最主要的途径之一，其波动成为影响房地产融资总体状况的关键。从房地产贷款内部结构看，最主要的两部分是开发商贷款与个人住房消费贷款。二者在资金运行特征上差异较大，应区别对待。