Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction: An appropriate model for listed firms in Vietnam

This paper aims to develop a comprehensive model, the first of its kind in Vietnam, for the purpose of predicting financial distress and bankruptcy at Vietnamese listed firms. The period 2003–2016 is used to study the likelihood of financial distress in different scenarios. Various factors are utilized, including (1) accounting factors in the emerging market score model; (2) market factors in the distance-to-default model; and (3) macroeconomic indicators. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUC) curve is used to compare the usefulness of various models that predict financial distress and bankruptcy. Empirical findings from this study show that accounting and market factors, together with macroeconomic fundamental factors, both affect financial distress when they are considered in isolation. However, in a comprehensive model, the effects from accounting factors appear to be more significant than those from market-based factors. The default prediction model, which includes accounting factors with macroeconomic indicators, appears to perform much better than the model comprising market-based factors with macroeconomic fundamentals.     

A retrospective on the state of international advertising research in advertising,communication, and marketing journals: 1963–2014

Scanning from the earliest to the recent literature on international advertising research, this study aimed to provide a more comprehensive and detailed picture of the research trends and patterns across the advertising, marketing, and communication disciplines over the past half century. Findings exhibit continuous growth in terms of the quantity of international advertising studies. While theoretical foundations need to be further solidified and elaborated, methodological and statistical rigors have been increasingly underpinned in international advertising research. Further, this study recognized authorial and institutional productivity, and influential articles in the field of international advertising research. The finding indicates that scholarly endeavors are necessary for diversity of countries studied in future research.     

基于制度经济学的我国农村金融需求分析

农户和农村企业的存、贷款金融需求具有多层次差异性、高成本与高风险、季节性和时间性及需求多元化等四个方面的特征.应从金融供给层次化,加快发展农村保险市场和非正规金融市场等三方面改善农村金融服务.     

亚洲债券基金的兴起及其发展:金融市场框架与研究综述

亚洲金融危机的爆发,在给亚洲的金融体系造成重创的同时,也促使亚洲各国认识到开展区域内金融合作的重要性,亚洲债券基金就是金融合作的种种尝试之一。亚洲债券基金的成立,标志着亚洲金融合作进入一个崭新的阶段。本文在结合亚洲金融合作的大趋势背景下,介绍了亚洲债券的最新发展、现实意义、发展方向以及存在的问题等。     

流动性过剩的形成机制

对流动性这个词汇的运用需要非常谨慎．在不同的文献里有不同的角度。在目前的讨论中．比较多是分析、防范、恐慌的．本身有负面的判断，但从全球化的发展趋势来看，它会持续相当长一段时间．是我们必须正视和加以利用的。     

Comparative advantage,demand for external finance,and financial development

This paper analyzes the effect of comparative advantage in international trade on a country's level of financial development. Countries with comparative advantage in financially intensive goods experience a higher demand for external finance, and therefore financial development. By contrast, financial development is lower in countries that primarily export goods which do not rely on external finance. We use disaggregated trade data to develop a measure of a country's external finance need of exports, and demonstrate this effect empirically. In order to overcome the simultaneity problem, we develop a novel instrumentation strategy based on the exogenous geographic determinants of trade patterns.     

Nash Equilibrium and Decentralized Negotiation in Auctioning Divisible Resources

We consider the problem of software agents being used as proxies for the procurement of computational and network resources. Mechanisms such as single-good auctions and combinatorial auctions are not applicable for the management of these services, as assigning an entire resource to a single agent is often undesirable and appropriate bund sizes are difficult to determine. We investigate a divisible auction that is proportionally fair. By introducing the notion of price and demand functions that characterize optimal response functions of the bidders, we are able to prove that this mechanism has a unique Nash equilibrium for an arbitrary number of agents with heterogeneous quasilinear utilities. We also describe decentralized negotiation strategies which, with approrpate relaxation, converge locally to the equilibrium point. Given an agent with a sequence of jobs, we show how our analysis holds for a wide variety of objectives.     

Computing deltas without derivatives

A well-known application of Malliavin calculus in mathematical finance is the probabilistic representation of option price sensitivities, the so-called Greeks, as expectation functionals that do not involve the derivative of the payoff function. This allows numerically tractable computation of the Greeks even for discontinuous payoff functions. However, while the payoff function is allowed to be irregular, the coefficients of the underlying diffusion are required to be smooth in the existing literature, which for example already excludes simple regime-switching diffusion models. The aim of this article is to generalise this application of Malliavin calculus to Itô diffusions with irregular drift coefficients, where we focus here on the computation of the delta, which is the option price sensitivity with respect to the initial value of the underlying. To this end, we first show existence, Malliavin differentiability and (Sobolev) differentiability in the initial condition for strong solutions of Itô diffusions with drift coefficients that can be decomposed into the sum of a bounded, but merely measurable, and a Lipschitz part. Furthermore, we give explicit expressions for the corresponding Malliavin and Sobolev derivatives in terms of the local time of the diffusion, respectively. We then turn to the main objective of this article and analyse the existence and probabilistic representation of the corresponding deltas for European and path-dependent options. We conclude with a small simulation study of several regime-switching examples.     

Mental Health Patterns and Consequences: Results from Survey Data in Five Developing Countries

The social and economic consequences of poor mental health inthe developing world are presumed to be significant, yet remainunderresearched. This study uses data from nationally representativesurveys in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Indonesia, and Mexico andfrom special surveys in India and Tonga to show similar patternsof association between mental health and socioeconomic characteristics.Individuals who are older, female, widowed, and report poorphysical health are more likely to report worse mental health.Individuals living with others with poor mental health are alsosignificantly more likely to report worse mental health themselves.In contrast, there is little observed relation between mentalhealth and consumption poverty or education, two common measuresof socioeconomic status. Indeed, the results here suggest insteadthat economic and multidimensional shocks, such as illness orcrisis, can have a greater impact on mental health than poverty.This may have important implications for social protection policy.Also significant, the associations between poor mental healthand lower labor force participation (especially for women) andmore frequent visits to health centers suggest that poor mentalhealth can have economic consequences for households and thehealth system. Mental health modules could usefully be addedto multipurpose household surveys in developing countries. Finally,measures of mental health appear distinct from general subjectivemeasures of welfare such as happiness.     

商业银行与中小企业共赢之道——供应链融资

供应链融资是近年来全球商业银行界最关注的一项金融业务。我国的商业银行通过向供应链的各个环节提供融资支持,促进了中小企业发展和贸易复苏,为我国经济摆脱金融危机负面影响起到了积极的促进作用,商业银行的客户基础和利润来源也得以扩展。