流动性过剩的形成机制

对流动性这个词汇的运用需要非常谨慎．在不同的文献里有不同的角度。在目前的讨论中．比较多是分析、防范、恐慌的．本身有负面的判断，但从全球化的发展趋势来看，它会持续相当长一段时间．是我们必须正视和加以利用的。     

Comparative advantage,demand for external finance,and financial development

This paper analyzes the effect of comparative advantage in international trade on a country's level of financial development. Countries with comparative advantage in financially intensive goods experience a higher demand for external finance, and therefore financial development. By contrast, financial development is lower in countries that primarily export goods which do not rely on external finance. We use disaggregated trade data to develop a measure of a country's external finance need of exports, and demonstrate this effect empirically. In order to overcome the simultaneity problem, we develop a novel instrumentation strategy based on the exogenous geographic determinants of trade patterns.     

Nash Equilibrium and Decentralized Negotiation in Auctioning Divisible Resources

We consider the problem of software agents being used as proxies for the procurement of computational and network resources. Mechanisms such as single-good auctions and combinatorial auctions are not applicable for the management of these services, as assigning an entire resource to a single agent is often undesirable and appropriate bund sizes are difficult to determine. We investigate a divisible auction that is proportionally fair. By introducing the notion of price and demand functions that characterize optimal response functions of the bidders, we are able to prove that this mechanism has a unique Nash equilibrium for an arbitrary number of agents with heterogeneous quasilinear utilities. We also describe decentralized negotiation strategies which, with approrpate relaxation, converge locally to the equilibrium point. Given an agent with a sequence of jobs, we show how our analysis holds for a wide variety of objectives.     

Computing deltas without derivatives

A well-known application of Malliavin calculus in mathematical finance is the probabilistic representation of option price sensitivities, the so-called Greeks, as expectation functionals that do not involve the derivative of the payoff function. This allows numerically tractable computation of the Greeks even for discontinuous payoff functions. However, while the payoff function is allowed to be irregular, the coefficients of the underlying diffusion are required to be smooth in the existing literature, which for example already excludes simple regime-switching diffusion models. The aim of this article is to generalise this application of Malliavin calculus to Itô diffusions with irregular drift coefficients, where we focus here on the computation of the delta, which is the option price sensitivity with respect to the initial value of the underlying. To this end, we first show existence, Malliavin differentiability and (Sobolev) differentiability in the initial condition for strong solutions of Itô diffusions with drift coefficients that can be decomposed into the sum of a bounded, but merely measurable, and a Lipschitz part. Furthermore, we give explicit expressions for the corresponding Malliavin and Sobolev derivatives in terms of the local time of the diffusion, respectively. We then turn to the main objective of this article and analyse the existence and probabilistic representation of the corresponding deltas for European and path-dependent options. We conclude with a small simulation study of several regime-switching examples.     

次级债市场发展与中国商业银行资本金结构调整

对于商业银行而言,发行次级债是一种快速、高效、便捷的资本补充方式,也是一种主功、长期的负债来源。我国商业银行资本充足率的现状和发展趋势预示着次级债的发行将呈上升趋势。但是和国外商业银行相比,目前我国商业银行的次级债发行尚处于起步阶段,国外商业银行的一些成熟的经验和做法值得我们借鉴。本文在分析我国次级债市场前景的基础上,对中外商业银行发行次级债的目的、募集方式、发行期限、定价、类型、持有对象作了比较和借鉴,提出了现阶段我国商业银行发行次级债的发展策略。     

城市化与经济增长的动力：一种长期观点

过去30多年来,中国的长期经济增长及国民财富水平的迅速提升都与方兴未艾的城市化浪潮息息相关。展望未来10～20年,中国将有近10亿人口居住在城市,从任何角度讲,中国城市化的巨大规模都将孕育新的机会,并必将成为未来中国长期增长与经济转型的宏大主题。一定程度上,未来中国经济能否继续领跑全球,关键就在于发展中的城市化主题。一个13亿人口大国的城市化问题不但直接决定未来中国经济长期增长的动力,并将对全球经济产生深远影响。     

Mental Health Patterns and Consequences: Results from Survey Data in Five Developing Countries

The social and economic consequences of poor mental health inthe developing world are presumed to be significant, yet remainunderresearched. This study uses data from nationally representativesurveys in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Indonesia, and Mexico andfrom special surveys in India and Tonga to show similar patternsof association between mental health and socioeconomic characteristics.Individuals who are older, female, widowed, and report poorphysical health are more likely to report worse mental health.Individuals living with others with poor mental health are alsosignificantly more likely to report worse mental health themselves.In contrast, there is little observed relation between mentalhealth and consumption poverty or education, two common measuresof socioeconomic status. Indeed, the results here suggest insteadthat economic and multidimensional shocks, such as illness orcrisis, can have a greater impact on mental health than poverty.This may have important implications for social protection policy.Also significant, the associations between poor mental healthand lower labor force participation (especially for women) andmore frequent visits to health centers suggest that poor mentalhealth can have economic consequences for households and thehealth system. Mental health modules could usefully be addedto multipurpose household surveys in developing countries. Finally,measures of mental health appear distinct from general subjectivemeasures of welfare such as happiness.     

Financial Transparency and Sources of Hidden Capital in Turkish Banks

This paper investigates how changes in regulatory and economic environments affect the transparency of banks’ financial-statements. Reregulation and a volatile economy make Turkish banks the ideal sample. I disaggregate sources of both hidden and booked capital in Turkish banks traded on the Istanbul Stock Exchange between 1988 and 2006. Hidden capital account for the difference between the accounting and opportunity-cost measures of a firm’s net worth. Increases in hidden capital in crisis periods indicate a greater reliance on government-contributed safety-net capital. The increase in hidden capital is more pronounced for large banks. Too-Big-To-Fail policies may explain why large banks are the beneficiaries of government-contributed capital.     

ARE PAIRS TRADING PROFITS ROBUST TO TRADING COSTS?

We examine the impact of trading costs on pairs trading profitability in the U.S. equity market, 1963 to 2009. After controlling for commissions, market impact, and short selling fees, pairs trading remains profitable, albeit at much more modest levels. Specifically, we document a risk‐adjusted return of about 30 basis points per month among portfolios of well‐matched pairs that are formed within refined industry groups. Pairs trading exhibits a lower risk and lower return profile than a short‐term reversal strategy that sorts stocks relative to their industry peers. Notably, both these types of contrarian investing are largely unprofitable after 2002.