Risk Analysis of Pension Fund Investment Choices

We provide a comprehensive and more consistent approach to analyse and compare the risk-return relationships of Australian superannuation investment options for the period January 1990 to December 2016. In estimating the risk profiles of the investment options, we allow for the movement of the asset classes over time by employing a varying coefficient panel estimation technique. We find that while risk increases across different investment options from moderate to aggressive options, using different percentages of identifying a balanced fund does not impact the long-term risk measurement. We equally find that the risk-return relationships of investment options are not sensitive to the modelling framework, except for the crisis analysis, in which the Fama-French five-factor model provides greater sensitivity.     

Peer Effects among Financial Analysts

We hypothesize that the arrival of star analysts improves the performance of incumbent financial analysts, while the departure of star analysts has the opposite effect. Our results consistent with this hypothesis are concentrated primarily in the tests related to star arrivals. Our findings are robust to an instrumental variable approach and a falsification test. In addition, we hypothesize that the impact of the arrival/departure of star analysts is more pronounced when the star analyst covers the same industry as the incumbents (especially for industries with high uncertainty), when the star analyst is more established, when the incumbent analysts are less experienced, and when the brokerage house has fewer existing star analysts. Overall, our paper offers evidence of peer effects among financial analysts, mainly through the arrival of star analysts.     

When are dividend increases bad for corporate bonds?

Employing an event study approach, we examine 5,574 bond return reactions to unexpected quarterly dividend change announcements in the U.S. corporate bond market over the period 2002–2014. On average, bond price reaction is in the same direction as dividend changes, which supports the hypothesis that dividend changes signal future firm performance. However, the price reaction varies significantly in the spectrum of bond's risk. Importantly, we document that some bondholders react negatively to unexpected dividend increases, indicating a wealth transfer effect. Such wealth transfer effect is most likely to occur in very high risk bond approaching maturity issued by firms with a low level of cash and incorporated outside Delaware.     

Macroeconomic effects of aggregate accounting conservatism: A cross‐country analysis

This paper examines whether aggregate conditional and unconditional conservatism are associated with economic growth. Prior studies find that conditional conservatism improves contracting efficiency, but that unconditional conservatism has either a neutral or detrimental impact on contracting. We therefore conjecture that country‐level conditional conservatism increases the efficiency of resource allocation in an economy, whereas country‐level unconditional conservatism is not similarly beneficial. Using a cross‐country sample, we construct country‐level estimates of conditional and unconditional conservatism. We find that conditional conservatism is associated with higher level of growth in Gross Domestic Product and Gross Domestic Product per Capita. By contrast, unconditional conservatism shows no or negative association. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate on the desirability of accounting conservatism and also extends the literature on the macroeconomic effects of aggregate financial reporting attributes.     

几种大学内部管理体制构架的动力特性比较分析

大学内部管理体制是以决策权力横向制衡为梁、以治理权力层级分配为柱而构建的运行构架,它是大学生存与发展的基础。文章将实体结构的"动力特性"概念加以抽象化和延伸,对几种大学内部管理体制构架的发展促动性和发展稳定性等进行了比较分析。     

Timeliness of Accounting Information in Family Controlled and Managed Companies in Brazil

The aim of this study was to assess the influence of family control and management in the quality of accounting information in Brazilian companies, with a focus on timeliness. The sample consisted of 72 Brazilian companies and 1,656 observations from 2008 to 2013. The results show that family-controlled companies are quicker to recognize good news related to the price of the respective stock. On the other hand, family managed companies showed low accounting timeliness in relation to recognition of good news. The findings contribute to the agency theory and the literature on family firms and confirm that such companies experience fewer agency problems arising from conflicts between majority and minority shareholders. In addition, the agency conflicts between the management and minority shareholders can be compounded by the recognition of good news not being in family managed firms.     

Can China realise its energy-savings goal by adjusting its industrial structure?

To investigate whether China can realise its energy-savings goal by 2020 through adjustments to its industrial structure, this study proposes a dynamic input–output multi-objective optimisation model. According to this model, the objectives to be achieved include the maximum gross domestic product and employment, and the minimum energy consumption, where the constraints are the sectoral dynamic input–output balance, labour and energy supply, and sectoral production capacity. The four best solutions are screened from the Pareto-optimal front. The study findings show that the energy intensities in 2020 would decrease by 42.8%, 43.5%, 42.9%, and 43.4% in the four scenarios when compared to their 2002 levels. This means that China can fully achieve its planned energy-savings target for 2020. In order to ensure that the industrial structure is optimised for the future, sectoral capital investments should be regulated by China's government and efforts to improve energy efficiency should be maintained.     

Penalized h-likelihood approach for variable selection in AFT random-effect models

Survival models allowing for random effects (e.g., frailty models) have been widely used for analyzing clustered time-to-event data. Accelerated failure time (AFT) models with random effects are useful alternatives to frailty models. Because survival times are directly modeled, interpretation of the fixed and random effects is straightforward. Moreover, the fixed effect estimates are robust against various violations of the assumed model. In this paper, we propose a penalized h-likelihood (HL) procedure for variable selection of fixed effects in the AFT random-effect models. For the purpose of variable selection, we consider three penalty functions, namely, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD), and HL. We demonstrate via simulation studies that the proposed variable selection procedure is robust against the misspecification of the assumed model. The proposed method is illustrated using data from a bladder cancer clinical trial.     

It Is Much Bigger Than What We Thought: New Estimate of Trade Diversion

Estimates of the trade diversion (TD) effect of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) tend to be much smaller than that of the trade creation (TC) effect. This paper examines two sources of estimation bias of the TD effect. The first bias arises from the failure to recognise that the concept of TD is inapplicable for a substantial proportion of PTAs, and thus, previous studies wrongly count cases where trade cannot be diverted as cases where trade is not diverted. The second bias arises from the difficulty in controlling for multilateral resistance and other unobserved time‐varying country heterogeneity when estimating both TC and TD effects simultaneously due to perfect multicollinearity. This paper corrects these two biases using a new measure of TD which provides a better mapping between the concept and data characteristics. Removing the two sources of bias leads to a multifold increase in the estimate of the TD effect. It is found that the total TD effect is comparable to the TC effect in dollar terms.     

Geographic Distance and Credit Market Access in Niger

Abstract: Distances involved in accessing basic services can constitute a major barrier to development. This paper analyzes the relationship between the distance separating households from microfinance institutions’ offices in Niger, and the low levels of development and performance of the microfinance sector in the country. To cope with the effects of geographical distance, microfinance institutions adapt their policies through more restrictive loan conditions, higher interest rates and more intensive screening. This then leads us to discuss the tension between access and sustainability in the context of financial services for the poor.