Employment and Exchange Rates: The Role of Openness and Technology

Real exchange rate movements are important drivers of the reallocation of resources between sectors of the economy. Economic theory suggests that the impact of exchange rates should vary with the degree of exposure to international competition and with the technology level. We show that both the degree of openness and the technology level mediate the impact of exchange rate movements on labour market developments. According to our estimations, whereas employment in high-technology sectors seems to be relatively immune to changes in real exchange rates, these appear to have sizable and significant effects on highly open low-technology sectors. The analysis of job flows suggests that the impact of exchange rates on these sectors occurs through employment destruction.     

Optimal liberalization of financial markets

As financial markets become completely liberalized, countries gain from improved risk sharing, but less wealthy countries can no longer profit from borrowing abroad at the lower rate and reinvesting at home at the higher rate. With decreasing rather than constant returns to capital, the gain from risk sharing is more likely to dominate the loss of the difference between the borrowing rate abroad and the decreasing reinvestment rate at home. Complete liberalization is likely to be optimal for less wealthy countries unless their labor endowment is large, their productivity is large, or holdings by foreigners are small, as in China.     

上市银行信息披露——国际经验与中国的选择

银行是世界范围内重要的并具有影响力的经营部门之一。上市银行更是作为一类特殊的企业，处于多重经济责任关系之中，银行的经营活动不同于其他的商业企业，因而对于信息披露的要求也不同。最近十几年来，金融危机的爆发、银行业务的日益复杂、传统监管的乏力以及对市场约束的依赖使得加强银行的透明度已成了国际银行业的共识，特别是2004年确立的《新巴塞尔资本协议》将市场纪律作为三大支柱之一，更加奠定了信息披露在推动银行风险管理和银行监管中的重要地位。     

Do futures‐based strategies enhance dynamic portfolio insurance?

In this paper we investigate the relative performance of two approaches to dynamic portfolio insurance: the synthetic put and the Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI). The investigation is conducted on the Australian market, over a sample period of 59 non‐overlapping quarters from December 1987 to December 2002. Its main contribution is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the two approaches under different market conditions, and the testing of ex ante information as an input into the trading program. The major finding is that the futures‐based implementation of both synthetic put and the CPPI approach is robust to both tranquil and turbulent market conditions in preserving the desired floor. The fact that this conclusion includes the case of employing implied volatility (obtained from the options market) is highly encouraging as it suggests high implementability of the strategy. Notably, the risk‐return tradeoff shows that portfolio insurance using this volatility measure yields a return that is 64 basis points over the risk free investment. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:591–608, 2004     

Price stability through price-level targeting or inflation targeting? A tale of two experiments

Price stability can be attained through price-level or inflation targeting. This paper compares the two monetary policy strategies from both a historical and a theoretical perspective. The Swedish experiment with price-level targeting in the 1930 occurred within a framework that lacked the accountability characteristic of New Zealand's current policy framework for inflation-targeting. Using a simple forward-looking rational expectations framework, we show that price-level targeting offers a better output-inflation variability tradeoff than inflation targeting in the forward-looking New Keynesian framework.     

全流通过程中股票市场格局的变化趋势

本文通过一个经典的动态不完全信息信号博弈模型,分析当前中国股票市场解禁的非流通股股东与普通流通股东的博弈行为.认为当前针对大小非减持的信息披露有其积极意义,允许上市公司回购股份等也有助于估值信息的传递;同时,市场逐步走向更加合理的产业资本与金融资本互动的估值体系的预期有利于资本市场分离均衡的实现.中国资本市场在经历后股权分置时代的深刻变革之后成为经济晴雨表的功能将逐步增强.     

我国农村正规金融与非正规金融效率分析

高效率的金融制度对经济发展提供强有力的资金支持,可以提高经济的总体竞争力,促进经济增长。对农村信用社、农业银行、农业发展银行和邮政储蓄银行等正规金融机构和村镇银行、小额贷款公司等非正规金融组织的效率进行调查,从资金配置效率、适应性效率和运行效率方面进行分析,结果显示：正规金融制度的效率偏低,非正规金融组织的效率偏高;两种金融制度的效率有各自的空间,在规模和范围较小时,非正规金融制度效率更高,而超出一定的发展范围和规模,正规金融制度的优越性则进一步凸显。     

韩国灾难管理体系研究——从“岁月”号事故看韩国灾难管理系统及政策

本篇文章探讨韩国灾难管理体系并分析体系内存在的问题,探索未来的灾难体系发展方向。并希望灾难频发的中国政府也能够借鉴韩国灾难管理体系,探索制定灾难政策的发展方向。     

基于风险的企业年金监管框架的构建

成熟市场的经验表明，风险导向监管是严格的数量限制模式和审慎性监管模式之外，整个年金监管框架中十分重要的组成部分，引入风险导向的养老金运作监管将是必然趋势。本文综述了当前国内外对养老金监管的文献观点，探讨风险导向监管模式在企业年金领域应用的理论和意义，并着重通过采集流程风险点，构建风险监管矩阵和制定监管实施工具等来建立基于我国企业年金以风险为导向的RATE监管框架，从而为我国企业年金制度初步探索新的监管理念和监管方式。