Spatial price premium transmission for Meat Standards Australia‐graded cattle: the vulnerability of price premiums to outside shocks

Studies of market integration show that price changes are transmitted spatially through arbitrage. Transmission across differentiated agricultural products is important to investigate, but it has not been explored given its complexities for assessment. Using data from Australian cattle markets, we examine the dynamics of Meat Standards Australia price premium transmission between states. An impulse response function analysis using Bayesian vector autoregression with sign restriction identification shows that shocks to prices and price premiums are partially transmitted contemporaneously between markets and it takes several weeks to complete transmission. In addition, we find an asymmetry of price and price premium shocks originating in Southern Queensland that have an inverse immediate impact in New South Wales, and take months to transmit the usual price response. This outcome may be explained by differences in cattle availability in each state, which can be related to forage availability due to weather conditions. Based on these results, producers can forecast fluctuations on price premiums and adjust their cattle supply accordingly.     

A Moral Hazard Approach to Wage Discounts under Informal Hiring

This study discusses informal hiring in terms of a standard principal–agent model. We have developed an adverse selection model of the labour market where effort is not contractible and employers have the opportunity to use informal search channels for hiring purposes. This standard framework enables us to provide an effort‐based explanation of the wage gap associated with informal hiring. Besides the wage discount, another feature of the equilibrium is that low‐ability workers informally hired shirk.     

Analysing the profitability of the Spanish fleet after the anchovy moratorium using bootstrap techniques

Given the low biomass level of the anchovy, the European Commission agreed to establish a moratorium on this species in the Bay of Biscay in 2005. Although the effects of managing the fishing activity with TACs, fees, taxes and ITQs on the stocks and future net profits are well documented in the specialized literature, scarce attention has been paid to analyze the effects of moratoriums on fisheries and the profitability of the fleet. This paper studies if the anchovy moratorium had a significant impact on the economic profitability of the fleet that fishes anchovy and other pelagic species in the North Atlantic waters. For this purpose, we compare the financial situations of the fleet before and after the moratorium from a statistical point of view using bootstrap, which is a flexible non-parametric and computationally intensive methodology. The results reveal the existence of a structural change in the financial performance of the fleet after the implementation of the moratorium.     

Robust prediction of domain compositions from uncertain data using isometric logratio transformations in a penalized multivariate Fay–Herriot model

Assessing regional population compositions is an important task in many research fields. Small area estimation with generalized linear mixed models marks a powerful tool for this purpose. However, the method has limitations in practice. When the data are subject to measurement errors, small area models produce inefficient or biased results since they cannot account for data uncertainty. This is particularly problematic for composition prediction, since generalized linear mixed models often rely on approximate likelihood inference. Obtained predictions are not reliable. We propose a robust multivariate Fay–Herriot model to solve these issues. It combines compositional data analysis with robust optimization theory. The nonlinear estimation of compositions is restated as a linear problem through isometric logratio transformations. Robust model parameter estimation is performed via penalized maximum likelihood. A robust best predictor is derived. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach. An application to alcohol consumption in Germany is provided.     

About the interactive influence of culture and regulatory barriers on entrepreneurial activity

In this paper cultural values and regulatory barriers to start-up are presented as characteristics of the business environment which influence the international differences in the level of entrepreneurial activity. A first objective of this paper is to measure the importance of a country’s cultural values in determining the national level of entrepreneurial activity, calculated by the Total Entrepreneurial Activity rate from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor. Culture is studied using Schwartz’s value structure (Schwartz 1994). This allows for the differentiating of seven cultural orientations that are then arranged around three bipolar dimensions: Autonomy- Embeddedness, Egalitarianism-Hierarchy and Harmony-Mastery. The paper also studies the effect of regulatory barriers for business start-ups on the Total Entrepreneurial Activity in different countries. Regulatory barriers are determined using data from the “Doing Business” project of the World Bank. The role of cultural values and regulatory barriers in entrepreneurial activity is tested using data from 56 countries and Structural Equation Modeling. The paper shows that cultural values and regulatory barriers are not related to entrepreneurship in the same way in countries with differing levels of development. On the contrary, the strength and nature of the influence of both factors on entrepreneurial activity depends on a country’s per capita GDP. Furthermore, the impact of regulatory barriers on entrepreneurship is moderated by cultural values. Thus, the discouraging effect of the regulatory barriers on entrepreneurial activity is more important in those countries with a societal culture characterized by autonomy, egalitarianism and harmony values.     

Item-fit evaluation in biased tests: a study under Rasch model

In this paper, the power rates and distributional properties of the Outfit, Infit, Lz, ECI2z and ECI4z statistics when they are used in tests with biased or differential item functioning (DIF) were explored. In this study, different conditions of sample size, sample size ratio focal and reference group, impact between groups, DIF effect size, and percentage of DIF items were manipulated. In addition, examinee responses were generated to simulate uniform DIF. Results suggest that item fit statistics generally detected medium percents of DIF in large samples (1000/500 or 1000/1000) only when DIF effect size was relatively high and when the mean of focal and reference group was different. Moreover, when groups had equal mean, low correct identification rates were found in the five item-fit indices. In general, the results showed adequate control of false positive rates. These findings lead to the conclusion that all indices used in this study are partially adequate fit measures for detecting biased items, mainly when impact between groups is present and sample size is large.     

On The Expected Discounted Penalty function for Lévy Risk Processes

Abstract

Dufresne et al. (1991) introduced a general risk model defined as the limit of compound Poisson processes. Such a model is either a compound Poisson process itself or a process with an infinite number of small jumps. Later, in a series of now classical papers, the joint distribution of the time of ruin, the surplus before ruin, and the deficit at ruin was studied (Gerber and Shiu 1997, 1998a, 1998b; Gerber and Landry 1998). These works use the classical and the perturbed risk models and hint that the results can be extended to gamma and inverse Gaussian risk processes.

In this paper we work out this extension to a generalized risk model driven by a nondecreasing Lévy process. Unlike the classical case that models the individual claim size distribution and obtains from it the aggregate claims distribution, here the aggregate claims distribution is known in closed form. It is simply the one-dimensional distribution of a subordinator. Embedded in this wide family of risk models we find the gamma, inverse Gaussian, and generalized inverse Gaussian processes. Expressions for the Gerber-Shiu function are given in some of these special cases, and numerical illustrations are provided.     

European monetary integration and persistance of real exchange rates

The aim of this paper is to analyze whether the persistence properties of the European real exchange rates changed when their currencies joined the euro or during the monetary integration process. More specifically, we investigate whether, as a result of the single currency or the previous macroeconomic stability, nominal price rigidities have decreased and the persistence of real exchange has fallen. We test for stationarity against a change in the integration order on different competitiveness measures during the period that runs from the middle of the seventies to nowadays. The results show that the real exchange rates of the European periphery (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece and Finland) underwent a change in their order of integration from I(1) to I(0) at some time around the middle of the 1990s. On the other hand, the real exchange rates of the Central European countries, with a greater stability in the 1980s and 1990s, changed their integration order earlier, if at all, mostly during the 1980s. So, the euro seems to have had, on the whole, little influence on the persistence of real exchange rates. Only for a few countries do our findings detect a significant decrease in persistence related with the nominal convergence process.     

Comparative analysis on the effects of the Asian and global financial crises on precious metal markets

The global financial crisis has vigorously struck major financial markets around the world, in particular in the developed economies since they have suffered the most. However, some commodity markets, and in particular the precious metal markets, seem to be unscathed by this financial downturn. This paper investigates therefore the nature of volatility spillovers between precious metal returns over fifteen years (1995-2010 period) with the attention being focused on these markets’ behavior during the Asian and the global financial crises. Daily closing values for precious metals are analyzed. In particular, the variables under study are the US$/Troy ounce for gold, the London Free Market Platinum price in US$/Troy ounce, the London Free Market Palladium price in US$/Troy once, and the Zurich silver price in US$/kg. The main sample is divided into a number of sub periods, prior to, during and after the Asian crisis. The aim of this division is to provide a wide and deep analysis of the behavior of precious metal markets during this financial event and of how these markets have reacted during times of market instability. In addition, this paper also looks at the effects of the global financial crisis from August 2007 to November 2010 using GARCH and EGARCH modeling. The main results show that there is clear evidence of volatility persistence between precious metal returns, a characteristic that is shared with financial market behavior as it has been demonstrated extensively by the existing literature in the area. In terms of volatility spillover effects, the main findings evidence volatility spillovers running in a bidirectional way during the periods; markets are not affected by the crises, with the exception of gold, that tends to generate effects in all other metal markets. However, there is little evidence in the case of the other precious metals generating any kind of influence on the gold market. On the other hand, there is little evidence of spillover effects during the two crisis episodes. Finally, the results from asymmetric spillover effects show that negative news/information have a stronger impact in these markets than positive news, again a characteristic that has been also exhibited by financial markets.