Exchange rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in Greek exports to the Euro Area,the US and Turkey: sectoral evidence

In this paper a non-linear model is applied, where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction, which we call “play” area—analogous to mechanical play. We implement an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on Greek exports is estimated based on the period from 1995Q1 to 2014Q4. Looking at some of the main export partners of Greece, the euro area, Turkey and the US, and some of its most important tradeable sectors we identify significant hysteretic effects for a part of the Greek exports. We find that Greek export activity is characterized by “bands of inaction” with respect to changes in the real exchange rate and calculate the further real depreciation needed to trigger a spurt in Greek exports. To check for robustness we (a) estimate Greek export equations for a limited sample excluding the recent financial crisis, (b) use export weight instead of deflated nominal exports as the dependent variable, (c) employ a political uncertainty variable as a determinant of the width of the area of weak reaction. Overall, we find that those specifications which take uncertainty into account display the best goodness of fit. In other words: the option value of waiting dominates the real exchange rate effect on Greek exports.     

The ADR shadow exchange rate as an early warning indicator for currency crises

We develop an indicator for currency crisis risk using price spreads between American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and their underlyings. This risk measure represents the mean exchange rate ADR investors expect after a potential currency crisis or realignment. It makes crisis prediction possible on a daily basis as depreciation expectations are reflected in ADR market prices. Using daily data, we analyze the impact of several risk drivers related to standard currency crisis theories and find that ADR investors perceive higher currency crisis risk when export commodity prices fall, trading partners’ currencies depreciate, sovereign yield spreads increase, or interest rate spreads widen.     

Multi-agent-based transport planning in the newspaper industry

In many cases of today's planning tasks, the synchronization of production and distribution is becoming increasingly important in order to minimize costs and to maximize customer satisfaction. This is especially the case if transport schedules are closely connected to production schedules, as it is in the newspaper industry—where perishable goods are distributed immediately after production. In order to achieve the above mentioned competing objectives, a special kind of vehicle routing problem, the vehicle routing problem with time windows and cluster-dependent tour starts (VRPTWCD), has to be solved. Moreover, the varying print and post-processing schedules due to unknown editorial deadlines lead to the need for a dynamic online control of the newspaper production and distribution process. In this contribution, the outlined dynamic transport problem is solved online under consideration of unforeseen changes in production schedules. The solution concept is based on a multi-agent system consisting of, amongst others, several Edition and Vehicle Agents. This system is exemplarily applied to a real life application case of one of the largest German newspaper companies. It is shown that a static (centralized) optimization of the underlying problem would even lead to worse results in comparison to the current situation and that the appliance of the multi-agent system is suitable in the newspaper industry.     

The Role of Regional Integration,Security and Development in Southern Africa

Abstract: This paper investigates the causal interlinkagcs between regional integration, security and development in Southern Africa, with special emphasis on the role of regional integration in the promotion of security in the region. It surveys the economic potentials of the region, the security concerns, and the development of institutions for regional integration. The paper then recommends new regional arrangemments for the promotion of joint security in the region with the objective of achieving both security and regional sustainable development. Résumé: Cet article s'interroge sur les liens de cause à effet entre l'intégration régionale, la sécuritéét le développement en Afrique australe, en insistant tout particulièrement sur le rôle de l'intégration régionale dans la promotion de la sécurité, au niveau de la région. Il analyse les potentialités économiques de la région, les problèmes de sécurité, et la misc en place d'institutions pour l'intégration régionale. Puis il recomande de nouveaux mécanismes régionaux pour promouvoir la sécurité commune dans la région avec l'objcctif de réaliscr à la fois la sécurité et le développement régional durable.     

Toolkits for idea competitions: a novel method to integrate users in new product development

Research has shown that many innovations originate not in the manufacturer but the user domain. Internet-based toolkits for idea competitions (TIC) are a novel way for manufacturers to access innovative ideas and solutions from users. Idea competitions build on the nature of competition as a means to encourage users to participate at an open innovation process, to inspire their creativity, and to increase the quality of the submissions. When the contest ends, submissions are evaluated by an expert panel. Users whose submissions score highest receive an award from the manufacturer, which is often granted in exchange for the right to exploit the solution in its domain. Following the idea of evolutionary prototyping, we developed a TIC in cooperation with a manufacturer of sports goods. The TIC was launched as a pilot in one of the company's markets. Submissions were evaluated using the consensual assessment technique. The evaluation of this study provides suggestions for further research, but also implications for managers willing to explore TIC in their organization.     

Currency crises and the stock market: empirical evidence for another type of twin crisis

We explore the dependency between currency crises and the stock market in emerging economies. Our focus is two-fold. First, the risk of a currency crisis rises as the foreign stake in the domestic stock market increases. Successful economies with high capital flows into their booming stock markets especially are prone to stock market-induced currency crises. Second, we apply the dividend growth model to show that stock markets crash in the run-up to a currency crisis. This new type of twin crisis is empirically tested by employing a logit framework using quarterly data for 33 emerging economies for 1994Q1–2007Q4.     

Zur optimalen Abfolge von Investitionsprojekten

Zusammenfassung  Wenn Unternehmen bei beschr?nkten Kapazit?ten mehrere Investitionsprojekte durchführen k?nnen, stellt sich die Frage nach der optimalen Reihenfolge dieser Projekte. Ein Entscheidungskriterium in Analogie zur Annuit?t kann zur Bestimmung der optimalen Abfolge herangezogen werden. Bestehen für die Projekte zeitliche Restriktionen in Form von sp?test zul?ssigen Endterminen, so kann die optimale Abfolge nur noch mit einem nicht-linearen Modell ermittelt werden. Dieses Modell kann in ein gemischt-ganzzahliges lineares Programm transformiert und mit g?ngigen Softwarepaketen gel?st werden.