Analysis of the Potential Economic Viability of Shale Gas Resources in Europe

European countries are currently exploring strategies to ensure a strong level of security of energy supply while decreasing its reliance on natural gas imports. With the strong surge in shale gas developments in the USA, similar ambitions have been the ongoing subject of inquiry in Europe. Detailed knowledge about extraction costs is a key issue in determining future shale gas investments in Europe. The paper at hand analyses the potential of European shale gas resources, highlighting their competitiveness against conventional natural gas. It examines the current volume of shale gas resources in Europe and performs a detailed cost calculation to provide an estimation of shale gas production costs. The results indicate that under current market conditions the repetition of the US shale gas boom is by all measures improbable in Europe. Furthermore, in the case that natural prices were to return to historically higher levels, only a few highly productive shale gas formations would be economically competitive.     

The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services—Microsimulation Policy Results of an Aging Society,Increasing Labour Market Flexibility,and Extended Public Childcare in Germany

Knowledge about the timing of consumption opens new insights into consumption behaviour for consumer, economic, social, as well as for communal and societal policies. It not only allows sound information for a better match of timely supply and demand but also about everyday living arrangements. This study contributes to the timing aspect of daily consumption by posing the question: How is the timing of daily demand for goods and services affected by major changes in German society? We concentrate on important and currently discussed developments and policies: the huge shift in Germany’s demographic structure with an aging society (with a population forecast for 2020 by the German Federal Statistical Office), the deregulation and the further expansion in flexibility of the labour market, and the current policy of extending public childcare support. For each aspect and policy, we first describe the actual timing of daily demand for goods and services. With the microsimulation approach and different scenarios, we then quantify the respective societal and policy impacts based on more than 37?000 time-use diaries of the current German Time Budget Survey of 2001/2002.     

Optimal Debt Relief Under Threat of Trade Punishments

The theory of optimal debt relief hinges critically on the assumption that the output of a defaulting debtor country can be partially confiscated by the creditors. This assumption is at odds with the crucial feature of international credit relationships. The present paper focuses on an alternative enforcement method, namely the impediment of international trade. It is shown that a similar result can be derived. Additionally, it can be rational to grant further credit to countries with very little initial endowment, even though it is clear to the creditors that they will grant debt relief afterwards.     

欧元美元汇率挑战预期

本文通过对欧元创设以前以及成功实施以后来自大西洋两岸学者们的不同观点的回顾，指出欧元／美元汇率变动并非如人们所预料的那样。原因在于经济模型不可能穷尽所有的基本因素，在于媒体以及其他未曾预料的事件实际上不可能使模型正常运作。     

Management of flow risk in mutual funds

This paper is the first to relate the investment practices of U.S. equity mutual funds to their management of flow risk, defined as the adverse effect of investor in- and outflows on fund performance. Using a comprehensive merged sample of 2585 actively managed U.S. domestic equity funds from the CRSP mutual fund database and the SEC’s regulatory N-SAR filings, we are the first to detect differences in funds’ responses to flow risk. We find that funds using derivatives, such as options and futures on indices as well as individual stocks, have higher performance than non-using funds. We further show that this outperformance is the result of superior flow risk management using these derivatives and not a result of derivatives based stock-picking or market-timing activities. Overall, our findings document that superior flow management ability is valuable when managing open-end mutual funds and should be considered by investors and researches when evaluating fund performance.     

Idiosyncratic risk and the cost of capital: the case of electricity networks

We analyze the treatment and impact of idiosyncratic or firm-specific risk in regulation. Regulatory authorities regularly ignore firm-specific characteristics, such as size or asset ages, implying different risk exposure in incentive regulation. In contrast, it is common to apply only a single benchmark, the weighted average cost of capital, uniformly to all firms. This will lead to implicit discrimination. We combine models of firm-specific risk, liquidity management and regulatory rate setting to investigate impacts on capital costs. We focus on the example of the impact of component failures for electricity network operators. In a simulation model for Germany, we find that capital costs increase by \(\sim \) 0.2 to 3.0 % points depending on the size of the firm (in the range of 3–40 % of total cost of capital). Regulation of monopolistic bottlenecks should take these risks into account to avoid implicit discrimination.     

Modeling different kinds of spatial dependence in stock returns

The paper modifies previously suggested GMM approaches to spatial autoregression in stock returns. Our model incorporates global dependencies, dependencies inside industrial branches and local dependencies. As can be seen from Euro Stoxx 50 returns, this combination of spatial modeling and finance allows for superior risk forecasts in portfolio management.     

Measuring learning from others: The development and validation of the Proactive Social Informal Learning Questionnaire

The present study aims to develop, validate, and cross-validate an instrument measuring three proactive social informal learning activities, namely feedback seeking, help seeking and information seeking. Prior research mainly focused on detecting or measuring the frequency of these seeking behaviours and did not consider whether the information, help or feedback that has been sought was also used. Furthermore, although these seeking behaviours were studied extensively in different research fields, the current study takes a learning perspective and interprets feedback, help and information seeking as learning activities. The questionnaire was completed by a convenient sample of 650 professionals working in higher education, consultancy, retail and food production. We performed an exploratory factor analysis (N = 230 educators) to explore the structure of the questionnaire. This was followed by a confirmatory factor analysis (N = 230 educators) to confirm the structure. Finally, we cross-validated the questionnaire in a sample of business professionals (N = 190) by testing for measurement invariance. The final questionnaire resulted in a five-factor structure measuring the (1) Use of Feedback Seeking, (2) Frequency of Help and Information Seeking, (3) Use of Help seeking, (4) Use of Information Seeking and (5) Frequency of Feedback Seeking. The current study presents a preliminary, yet promising instrument that taps into proactive social informal learning.