The Correct use of Confidence Intervals and Regression Analysis in Determining the Value of Residential Homes

This paper shows that (1) the principle of substitution has been misinterpreted in regression analysis on residential homes by the misuse of the confidence interval; (2) the proper confidence interval to judge the accuracy of the equation is the mean CI; and (3) the accuracy of the equation can be improved by applying factor analysis to the entire data set rather than a predetermined neighborhood. These results are illustrated in a sample of 571 residential sales in Northwest Arkansas during 1975. The data are divided into clusters, and a regression equation is computed for each. The results show that the mean confidence interval is the correct application of the principle of substitution. The correct decision rule to determine the superiority of the multi-equation or the single equation model compares the explained to the unexplained variation. These results should allow the appraiser to select properties that are better suited for comparison. This will improve the accuracy of the regression analysis and resulting estimates of property value.     

State Trading Enterprises as an Impediment to Improved Market Access: The Case of the Korean Rice Market

The trade and welfare effects of tariffs are well known. Less well known, and more difficult to analyze, are the economic effects of state trading enterprises (STEs). Despite STEs in importing countries having the potential to limit market access, they are no longer on the agriculture agenda in the Doha Round Negotiations in the WTO, because some Members have asserted that importing STEs do not distort international trade. We evaluate this assertion through the use of a theoretical model of an STE, which is calibrated to data for the Korean rice market. We show that this STE does distort international trade by restricting market access relative to a Cournot benchmark, and that it affects the domestic and international distribution of social welfare. This finding permits the conclusion that an important opportunity is being missed in the negotiations to improve market access, because importing STEs are not on the agenda.     

Brand Name Audit Pricing,Industry Specialization,and Leadership Premiums post‐Big 8 and Big 6 Mergers*

This paper investigates brand name, industry specialization, and leadership audit pricing in the wake of the mergers that created the Big 6 and the Big 5 accounting firms. For samples of Australian listed public companies in each of the postmerger years 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1998, we estimate national audit fee premiums for the Big 6/5 auditors and the industry specialists and leaders. We find limited support for the ability of the Big 6/5 to obtain fee premiums over non‐Big 6/5 for those industries not having specialist auditors. Nonspecialist Big 6/5 auditors are able to obtain fee premiums over nonspecialist non‐Big 6/5 auditors for those industries having specialist auditors. However, this result only holds among the smaller half of our sample. We do not find strong support for the presence of industry specialist premiums in the postmerger years, especially after 1990, using various definitions of industry specialist. We find, at best, limited support for the presence of industry leadership premiums. The evidence suggests that after the Big 8/6 audit firm mergers, some caution is required in generalizing the Craswell, Francis, and Taylor 1995 finding of national market industry specialist premiums. More generally, the study raises questions about the tenuous link between the concept of specialization and national market‐share statistics.     

Safety-critical and securtiy-critical computing in britain: an exploration

This paper explores the development and assessment, in the UK, of computer systems which are critical to human safety (focusing promarily on railways, civil aviation, offshore oil and defence), and also of those critical to national security are identified, ranging from ad hoc and unsystematic pratices, through good software engineering to the use of formal, mathematical methods. We discuss whether the resultant systems are safe and secure, and highlight two key problems: how to demonstrate safety and security, in advance of use; and how to ensure safe human computer interaction.     

An empirical examination of the effectiveness of dollar-cost averaging using downside risk performance measures

Some studies find the dollar-cost averaging investment strategy to be sub-optimal using a traditional Sharpe ratio performance ranking metric. Using both the Sortino ratio and the Upside Potential ratio, we empirically test four investment strategies for alternative asset investments. We find the relative ranking of dollar-cost averaging remains inferior to alternative investment strategies. (JEL G1, G11, N2)     

EMPLOYMENT-RELATED LEGAL OBLIGATIONS: A RISK MANAGEMENT PERSPECTIVE OF FEDERAL ANTI-DISCRIMINATION LAWS

Abstract: The authors examine the statutes, protected classes and damages under federal antidiscrimination laws. Because of the limitations of insurance as a loss financing tool, the authors contend that loss control is a more prudent course of action for employers than loss financing.     

The Impact of Second Loans on Subprime Mortgage Defaults

An estimated 12.6% of primary mortgage loans were simultaneously originated with a second loan from 2004 until 2008, although relatively little is known about how the presence of such subordinate loans affects the default decisions of borrowers. We use a novel data series of loan servicing records from 2002 until 2010 to identify such borrowers and find evidence that the default behavior of these borrowers significantly differs from borrowers without second loans. Estimating a discrete‐time proportional odds hazard model, we find borrowers with a second loan were 62.7% more likely to default each month on their primary loan when conditioning alone on the attributes of the primary loan. However, borrowers of second loans were 58.3% less likely to default on their primary loan as compared to single‐loan borrowers with equivalent current combined attributes (i.e., loan‐to‐value, balance and interest rate). We hypothesize and provide empirical evidence that this occurs because borrowers with second loans have the option to sequentially default on each loan since subordinate lenders will not pursue foreclosure if borrowers have insufficient equity. Lenders of defaulted subordinate debt may revisit their decision to foreclose in the future after housing markets start to recover, thus prompting a new round of foreclosures.     

Synthetic Floating‐Rate Debt: An Example of an Asset‐Driven Liability Structure

An asset‐driven liability (ADL) structure is analogous to a liability‐driven investment (LDI) strategy. In both cases, the intent is to reduce the risk arising from a mismatch of assets and liabilities by aligning the interest rate sensitivity of cash flows on both sides of the balance sheet. Increasingly, defined‐benefit pension plans have adopted LDI strategies that reduce their equity assets and increase the average duration of their debt assets to better match the typical long duration of their retirement obligations to its employees. To illustrate the concept of ADL, the authors use the example of a corporate issue of traditional fixed‐rate debt that is transformed into synthetic floating‐rate debt using an interest rate swap (in which the corporation receives the fixed rate on the swap and pays at money market reference rate like three‐month LIBOR). The use of such long‐term, floating‐rate debt reduces interest rate risk when the firm has operating revenues that are positively correlated to the business cycle. However, a problem arises in that there is limited demand for such debt securities from institutional investors, many of which, because of LDI guidelines, prefer long‐term, fixed‐rate securities. Derivatives provide a way of resolving this mismatch between issuer and investor interests. In the article, the authors present a detailed example of the cash flows on the “receive‐fixed” interest rate swap (and its valuation for financial reporting) to show how the synthetic ADL debt structure obtains the desired outcome.