Return Performance Surrounding Reverse Stock Splits: Can Investors Profit?

We examine the long-run return performance of over 1,600 firms with reverse stock splits. These stocks record statistically significant negative abnormal returns over the three-year period following the month of the reverse split. The sample firms experience poor operating performances over the four years that include and follow the year of the reverse split, which suggests informational inefficiencies. Because these stocks have unique financial characteristics, we also show that they would be very difficult to sell short. Thus, arbitrageurs would be restricted in their ability to earn abnormal profits, even if they correctly anticipated a price decline.     

Liquidity-saving mechanisms

This paper studies the incentives of participants in a real-time gross settlement system with and without the addition of a liquidity-saving mechanism (LSM). Participants in the model face a liquidity shock and different costs for delaying payments. They trade off the cost of delaying a payment against the cost of borrowing liquidity from the central bank. The main contribution of the paper is to show that the design of an LSM has important implications for welfare. In particular, parameters determine whether the addition of an LSM increases or decreases welfare.     

The cost of elections: the effects of public sector austerity on electoral integrity and voter engagement

Concerns have been raised that insufficient funding has been affecting the delivery of elections in many countries. This paper presents a case study of England and Wales from 2010–2016. It demonstrates that many local authorities saw major real terms cuts and were increasingly over-budget. Those subject to cuts were less likely to undertake public engagement activities. State efforts to encourage voter participation may therefore be a casualty of austerity.     

Too big to fail: Measures,remedies, and consequences for efficiency and stability*

This paper evaluates whether reform efforts addressing “too big to fail” actually enhance the stability of the financial system, and whether trade‐offs exist between stability and efficiency. We also present and discuss various measures of bank size and complexity since such measures are essential for implementing appropriate corrective remedies. As we will show, there are no unambiguous measures of size or complexity that can fully capture a bank's contribution to systemic risk. Their effects on efficiency are also impossible to capture with certainty. While we recognize the need for additional research and empirical evidence, we do identify weaknesses and strengths of proposed and implemented reforms that could have consequences for bank stability and efficiency.     

Scientific misconduct and the responsible conduct of research in science and economics

Abstract

Considered here are matters relating to the responsible conduct of research in economics and science in the United States for the last forty years. In science there was a “late 20th century wave” of scientific misconduct and then a “millennial wave”. For economics in the former era, episodes of honest error and replication failure occurred. Recently plagiarism and data manipulation have been reported. Overall few economists seem to fabricate data, but falsification of data, replication failure, and plagiarism occur. Furthermore, replication failure is the one thing that scientific misconduct and honest error have in common. In economics and compared to the sciences, there have been no misconduct hearings, no economist has been charged with a crime, nor has anyone served time in prison for scientific misconduct. Science and economics seem to be sufficiently self-corrective so that systemic science failure does not utterly thwart scientific progress in the long run.     

The effect of state health insurance benefit mandates on premiums and employee contributions

The average US state has 40 benefit mandates, laws requiring health insurance to cover particular conditions, treatments, providers or people. We investigate the extent to which these mandates increase the health insurance premiums paid by employers, and the extent to which these higher premiums are passed on to employees in the form of higher employee contributions. We use state-level data on premiums and employee contributions to health insurance from the insurance component of the 1996–2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Our main analysis is a fixed effects regression that controls for age, race, income, union membership and the presence of state mandate waivers. We find robust evidence that the average mandate increases premiums by approximately 0.6%, and that mandates lead to similar increases in employee contributions for single-coverage health insurance plans. Alternative specifications using an AR(1) error structure estimate a larger effect of mandates, while those using generalized estimating equations estimate smaller effects. We find that mandates requiring insurers to cover a specific benefit, as opposed to a specific type of provider or person, lead to the largest increases in employee contributions.     

Dining out,the missing food consumption in China

Food security concern in China is also the world’s concern. Studies on food consumption in the past, however, often neglected the increasing food consumed away from home (FAFH). Drawn on a survey data recently conducted in nine cities by a week-long diary method, we found that FAFH in urban China accounts for a significant proportion of total food consumption, although its share varies by food category. With substantial expected income growth, overall FAFH consumption will likely continue to rise, but would be negatively affected by the rapid societal aging process, both in dining out probability and per capita consumption level. The main findings of this study have implications for food processing and service industries as well as for studies in food-related environmental issues.     

INTRANATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL KNOWLEDGE FLOWS: EFFECTS ON THE FORMAL AND INFORMAL SECTORS

This article studies the effects of international and intranational knowledge flows. Contributions include comparing the effects of knowledge flows on the formal and informal sectors and determining multilateral spatial spillovers of innovation. Results show that formal entrepreneurs respect intranational intellectual property rights, but benefit from international spillovers, especially from patents granted. In contrast, informal entrepreneurs somewhat respect intranational patents granted, but not patent applications and citations. International spillovers to the informal sector are mainly from patents granted. Spillover magnitudes are greater internationally than intranationally, and greater in the informal sector than the formal sector (except for trademarks). (JEL O33, L26, K42)     

THE RISK OF FIRE SALES IN THE TRI‐PARTY REPO MARKET

This paper studies the risk of “fire sales” in the tri‐party repo market, a large and important market where securities dealers find short‐term funding for a substantial portion of their own and their clients' assets. We distinguish between fire sales of assets by a dealer who, facing a run that could lead to default, sells securities to generate liquidity, and fire sales of assets by repo investors after a dealer's default has occurred. While fire sales do cause damage no matter how they arise, the tools available to lessen the harm from the two types of fire sales are different. We find that limited tools are available to mitigate the risk of predefault fire sales and that no established tools currently exist to mitigate the risk of postdefault sales. (JEL G01, G18)