Input- and Output-Oriented Technical Efficiency of Ukrainian Collective Farms, 1989–1992: Bayesian Analysis of a Stochastic Production Frontier Model

We propose estimation of a stochastic production frontier model within a Bayesian framework to obtain the posterior distribution of single-input-oriented technical efficiency at the firm level. All computations are carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The approach is illustrated by applying it to production data obtained from a survey of Ukrainian collective farms. We show that looking at the changes in single-input-oriented technical efficiency in addition to the changes in output-oriented technical efficiency improves the understanding of the dynamics of technical efficiency over the first years of transition in the former Soviet Union.     

The Conditional Probability of Foreclosure: An Empirical Analysis of Conventional Mortgage Loan Defaults

This paper analyzes the factors affecting the conditional probability that defaulted residential mortgage loans will foreclose. We analyze a large national sample of conventional loans, which have been in default at least once during the 1988 to 1994 period. For such loans, lenders and borrowers either individually or jointly make choices which lead to the following outcomes: (1) resumption of payments, (2) termination by prepayment, or (3) foreclosure. Our estimates of a logit model indicate that termination option values and local area economic and housing market conditions affect default resolution probabilities. Perhaps more importantly, simulations using the logit model indicate that the efficiency of the default resolution process may be substantially improved by legal and regulatory reforms.     

Expatriate adjustment from the inside out: an autoethnographic account

This paper identifies some of the dynamics of expatriate adjustment using an autoethnographic account of situations experienced by the first author during her first year of work at a financial services company in Hong Kong. Success in this cross-cultural assignment is dependent on the expatriate's ability to adjust to and master the new culture. Our theoretical analysis of the autoethnographic account suggests that culture shock may be a discontinuous process. Further, the analysis suggests that cultural acceptance can play a critical role in expatriate adjustment.     

Labor unions and tax aggressiveness

We examine the impact of unionization on firms' tax aggressiveness. We find a negative association between firms' tax aggressiveness and union power and a decrease in tax aggressiveness after labor union election wins. This relation is consistent with labor unions influencing managers' in one, or both, of two ways: (1) constraining managers' ability to invest in tax aggressiveness through increased monitoring; or (2) decreasing returns to tax aggressiveness that arise from unions' rent seeking behavior. We also find preliminary evidence that the market expects these reductions around union elections and discounts firms that likely add shareholder value via aggressive tax strategies.     

Inflation and the formation of expectations

This paper develops a model of expectations which generates paths that are consistent with observations that an acceleration of the monetary growth rate initially raises and eventually lowers real holdings of cash balances. It introduces a two-part expectations hypothesis where individuals are assumed to form expectations about the entire path of the price level and about the short-term inflation rate. Interaction between regressive and extrapolative elements induces a transitory rise in money holdings during the initial phase of inflation as expectations are that the process will reverse itself. Subsequently, as expectations catch up, the decline in desired holdings induces an overshooting of the inflation rate.     

Tax Incidence in Madagascar: An Analysis Using Household Data

This article discusses tax incidence in Madagascar and askswho pays the taxes that finance government spending. Its mainconcern is to identify the progressivity of different taxeslevied in Madagascar, based on the consumption and income patternsfound in the 1994 Enquête Permanente auprès desMénages, a nationally representative survey. The resultssuggest that most taxes are progressive, meaning that wealthyhouseholds pay proportionately more of these taxes relativeto their expenditures than do poor households. Two notable exceptionsare taxes on kerosene and export duties on vanilla, both ofwhich are regressive. These results are consistent with thoseof a study of Ghana, the only other comparable research on taxincidence in Africa. That study found taxes on kerosene andcocoa exports to be the most regressive taxes in Ghana. Making firm policy recommendations for tax reform would requirean analysis of the economic efficiency and administrative efficacyof different taxes to complement this article's work on theirequity implications. Nevertheless, the results suggest thatthe movement away from trade taxes, especially export duties,and toward broadly based value added or income taxes would bemore equitable and more economically efficient. The only legitimateimpediment to such reforms in Madagascar is administrative,that is, the government's ability to collect different taxeseffectively. Although administrative efficiency may be a problemfor value added or income taxes, taxes on petroleum products(except kerosene) are highly progressive and provide a goodtax handle.     

Stochastic volatility and stochastic leverage

This paper proposes the new concept of stochastic leverage in stochastic volatility models. Stochastic leverage refers to a stochastic process which replaces the classical constant correlation parameter between the asset return and the stochastic volatility process. We provide a systematic treatment of stochastic leverage and propose to model the stochastic leverage effect explicitly, e.g. by means of a linear transformation of a Jacobi process. Such models are both analytically tractable and allow for a direct economic interpretation. In particular, we propose two new stochastic volatility models which allow for a stochastic leverage effect: the generalised Heston model and the generalised Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard model. We investigate the impact of a stochastic leverage effect in the risk neutral world by focusing on implied volatilities generated by option prices derived from our new models. Furthermore, we give a detailed account on statistical properties of the new models.     

Goal programming applied to police patrol allocation

This paper describes the development of a decision-making methodology to aid the police patrol planner in resolving the patrol allocation problem. The methodology developed provides information to assist in two major decision areas: staff sizing and vehicle requirement schedules. This research uses a queuing based simulation model to derive expected service levels for a number of different performance measures. Given these results, tradeoff curves are mapped between specified performance measures and utilization rates of patrol vehicles. With this information the patrol planner specifies limiting levels for both performance measures and other managerial constraints which, in turn, are inputted into a goal programming algorithm to determine appropriate staff sizes and vehicle requirements. The primary output provided the patrol planner is the required amount of patrol vehicle hours to allocate to each watch per day per precinct in order to satisfy a designated set of performance measure levels and managerial constraints. The methodology presented in this research was developed in conjunction with the Columbus, Ohio, Police Department with data being provided by the Research and Planning Division.     

Predicting the sample mean by extreme order statistics

Summary This paper considers the prediction of the sample mean by extreme order statistics when the population distribution is known. The predictor and its mean square error are found. The problem is studied in details for the normal model.