The ‘Wild Cards’ of European futures: Planning for discontinuities?

The use of Wild Cards has been extensively developed in the corporate world, particularly by companies dealing with strategic commodities in global markets, i.e., the nexus between warfare, oil, and energy use. One of the purposes of Wild Cards is to test the ability of a system - usually a large organisation - to react to unforeseen but high-impact events. The work presented in this article was undertaken in the context of the project on ‘Spatial Scenarios’ for the European Spatial Planning Observation Network (ESPON) Programme. In this project, four Wild Cards were introduced: “an era of energy scarcity”, “the demise of Europe's social security system”, “the gulf stream stops”, and “the dollar goes down the drain”. These Wild Cards were introduced to investigate how external events may have asymmetric impacts across the European territory, to include some reflections on themes that were not included in the integrated scenarios, and to raise awareness of the fact that today's policy choices have to be evaluated not only in the light of current policy goals but also in the light of possible, sometimes dramatic, future events. In this way the Wild Cards helped to highlight the potential impact of external events on the territorial development of Europe and their particular impact on the internal disparities between the regions.     

Market size and pharmaceutical innovation

This article quantifies the relationship between market size and innovation in the pharmaceutical industry using improved, and newer, methods and data. We find significant elasticities of innovation to expected market size with a point estimate under our preferred specification of 0.23. This suggests that, on average, $2.5 billion is required in additional revenue to support the invention of one new chemical entity. This magnitude is plausible given recent accounting estimates of the cost of innovation of $800 million to $1 billion per drug, and marginal costs of manufacture and distribution near 50%.     

Opportunism or strategic opportunity seeking? Three approaches to emerging country sourcing

The current interest in low-cost or emerging country sourcing (ECS) has inspired a multitude of empirical studies. These studies are based on varying methodological approaches and have come to somewhat different conclusions regarding the motivations for and outcomes of ECS. This paper argues that the overall approach to the new markets, especially the strategic network context surrounding each buyer-supplier relationship in the ECS setting, impacts on the prerequisites for success.The aim of the paper is to identify and discuss approaches to ECS. It begins with a review of recent empirical studies, scrutinising research interests and the approaches applied by the companies studied. It suggests and illustrates three broad categories of approaches: (1) the transactional approach focusing on individual sourcing in the emerging country, (2) the supply base approach focusing on establishing a set of supplier relationships in the emerging country, and (3) the network positioning approach in which both supplier and customer relationships are developed in the emerging country. The paper also discusses the three approaches as stages in an internationalisation process.The paper concludes that of the three strategic approaches the viability of two – the transactional approach and the supply base approach – can be questioned on several grounds, but that when seen as a process directed towards developing a network position in a new (emerging) market all three approaches make sense as different stages in a process moving towards achieving that goal. An explanation for the process of increasing commitment in emerging markets, relying on learning in interaction and on relational investments beginning with suppliers and continuing with customers, is also discussed.     

Effects of Supply Chain Management on Tomato Export in Iran: Application of Structural Equation Modeling

Although Iran is one of the top 10 countries in the world that produce tomatoes, the level that they are exported into the global market is low. This issue may have resulted from a major problem within tomatoes’ supply chain management. This paper aims to develop an empirical model of the supply chain management (SCM) of tomato companies. Throughout the reviewed literature, a SCM construct with different six indicators has been developed, including information sharing, long-term relationship, cooperation, quality, flexibility, and delivery. In this study, the influence of the SCM components on tomato export was identified through the use of empirical data that were collected from 20 different tomato companies in Northeast Iran. Using structural equation modeling, the major elements of SCM were found to have significant impacts on the export of tomatoes. The results also showed that information sharing, cooperation, flexibility, quality, and delivery had significant positive effects on the export of tomatoes.     

Yield Effects of Tissue Culture Bananas in Kenya: Accounting for Selection Bias and the Role of Complementary Inputs

We analyse yield effects of tissue culture (TC) banana technology in the Kenyan small farm sector, using recent survey data and an endogenous switching regression approach. TC banana plantlets, which are free from pests and diseases, have been introduced in East Africa since the late 1990s. Although field experiments show significant yield advantages over traditional banana suckers, a rigorous assessment of impacts in farmers’ fields is still outstanding. A comparison of mean yield levels between TC adopters and non‐adopters in our sample shows no significant difference. However, we find evidence of negative selection bias, indicating that farmers with lower than average yields are more likely to adopt TC. Controlling for this bias results in a positive and significant TC net yield gain of 7%. We also find that TC technology is more knowledge intensive and more responsive to irrigation than traditional bananas. Simulations show that improving access to irrigation could lift TC productivity gains to above 20%. The analytical approach developed and applied here and the finding of negative selection bias may also be relevant for the evaluation of other agricultural technologies.