Patents and R&D as Real Options

This article develops and implements a simulation approach to value patents and patent‐protected R&D projects based on the Real Options approach. It takes into account uncertainty in the cost‐to‐completion of the project, uncertainty in the cash flows to be generated from the project, and the possibility of catastrophic events that could put an end to the effort before it is completed. It also allows for the possibility of abandoning the project when costs turn out to be larger than expected or when estimated cash flows turn out to be smaller than anticipated. This abandonment option represents a very substantial part of the project's value when the project is marginal or/and when uncertainty is large. The model presented can be used to evaluate the effects of regulation on the cost of innovation and the amount on innovative output. The main focus of the article is the pharmaceutical industry. The framework, however, applies just as well to other research‐intensive industries such as software or hardware development.
(J.E.L.:G31, O22, O32).     

The pricing of equity-linked life insurance policies with an asset value guarantee

This paper considers the equilibrium pricing of equity-linked life insurance policies with an asset value guarantee; such policies provide for benefits which depend upon the performance of a reference portfolio subject to a minimum guaranteed benefit. The benefit is decomposed into a sure amount and an immediately exercisable call option on the reference portfolio. A numerical procedure for determining the value of the call option is presented and the risk minimizing investment strategy to be followed by the issuer of the policy is derived.     

Agricultural land in the Eastern Caribbean: From resources for survival to resources for development

The main effects of existing socioeconomic arrangements for agricultural land development in the Eastern Caribbean are discussed and changes aimed at improving both the efficiency and equity of the land development process are identified. The author argues that the existing ‘plantations-small holders’ structure is incapable of providing an efficient way of developing the available land resources and of improving the standard of living for the vast rural population. A new set of export oriented agricultural enterprises is pinpointed as a requirement in any viable solution aimed at taking land away from its present role as a resource for survival for the many and an economic benefit for the few and to reinstate agricultural lands as one of the key resources for more egalitarian, environmentally sound and efficient socioeconomic development.     

Failing and Merging as Competing Alternatives during Times of Financial Distress: Evidence from the Colombian Financial Crisis

This paper studies the determinants of individual bank failures and M&A processes in Colombia during the financial crisis of the late 1990s. Using bank-specific data we estimate competing risk hazards models and find that while profitability and capitalization are the most important determinants of the probability of failing, a bank's size, efficiency and capitalization are the main determinants of the probability of participating in an integration process. All else constant, an increase in capitalization reduces the probability of disappearing, whether due to the occurrence of bankruptcy, a merge or an acquisition. However, a marginal increase in capitalization reduces the probability of bankruptcy significantly more than the probability of integration. This study is the first to present a competing risks hazard model to identify covariates that excerpt significant influence on the probability of failing or merging for banks of an emerging economy.     

Performance Heterogeneity in Latin America: An Investigation into the Transient Effects of Country of Origin

The heterogeneity of firm performance has been studied from the perspective of factors, including the firm effect, the industry effect, and the country effect. This study emphasizes the importance of country transient effects in light of the volatility present in Latin American countries. Variance decomposition was carried out for the economic and operational performance of five countries in the period from 1998 to 2007. The results show that country effects matter for Latin America, its transient effects increase in periods of higher turbulence, and have a greater effect on a firms' economic performance than on its operational performance.     

Comprehensive Homeowners Microinsurance in Brazil: Estimation of Pricing and Market Potential

This study examines the question of comprehensive microinsurance for Brazilian homeowners. In particular, the study calculates (i) pricing for selected types of microinsurance homeowner's coverages and insured amounts and (ii) the estimated market potential of this product. The Brazilian agency charged with responsibility for regulation of private insurance, SUSEP, has determined that microinsurance should be aimed at families with a monthly per capita income of up to two minimum wages. According to this criterion, the study finds that there are more than 42 million households in Brazil eligible for microinsurance. The study also finds that microinsurance premiums for these households would be very low (US $0.97 to 2.03 per month)—less than 1% of average household income. This type of insurance would certainly be viable, considering the calculated market size of approximately US $780 million per year. These figures show that there is significant potential for the expansion of the microinsurance market in Brazil.     

Salesperson CLV orientation's effect on performance

Previous studies show how strategies based on the customer lifetime value (CLV) can lead to an increase of profitability for a firm. In this context, marketing serves the purpose of maximizing CLV and customer equity (the CLV of current and future customers). For most types of service firms, salespeople are direct participants in implementing the CLV concept. However, prior research does not answer the question of whether or how salesperson CLV orientation can enhance profits. Using data on salespeople in a large Chilean retail bank, this study shows that the effect of salesperson CLV orientation on salesperson performance follows an S-shaped function (which is first convex and then concave). Additionally, data does not support the idea that the optimum level of CLV orientation depends on salesperson customer orientation, salesperson adaptive selling behavior, or salesperson experience (i.e., CLV-oriented behaviors could be effective across a wide range of salespeople). As such, this study addresses an important concern among researchers and managers that is related to how to increase the salesperson performance. The findings of this study suggest that firms need to monitor individual salesperson CLV orientation more closely.     

On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes

The literature has identified three main approaches to account for the way exchange rate regimes are chosen: (i) the optimal currency area theory; (ii) the financial view, which highlights the consequences of international financial integration; and (iii) the political view, which stresses the use of exchange rate anchors as credibility enhancers in politically challenged economies. Using de facto and de jure regime classifications, we test the empirical relevance of these approaches separately and jointly. We find overall empirical support for all of them, although the incidence of financial and political aspects varies substantially between industrial and non-industrial economies. Furthermore, we find that the link between de facto regimes and their underlying fundamentals has been surprisingly stable over the years, suggesting that the global trends often highlighted in the literature can be traced back to the evolution of their natural determinants, and that actual policies have been less influenced by the frequent twist and turns in the exchange rate regime debate.     

Debt Sustainability Under Catastrophic Risk: The Case for Government Budget Insurance

Natural disasters are an important source of vulnerability in the Caribbean region. Despite being one of the more disaster-prone areas of the world, it has the lowest levels of insurance coverage. This article examines the vulnerability of Belize's public finance to the occurrence of hurricanes and the potential impact of insurance instruments in reducing that vulnerability. The article finds that catastrophic risk insurance significantly improves Belize's debt sustainability. In addition, the methodology employed makes it possible to estimate the appropriate level of insurance, which for the case of Belize is a maximum coverage of US$120 million per year. International organizations can play a role in assisting countries to overcome distortions in insurance markets, as well as in helping to relax internal political resistance to the purchase of insurance policies.