Output collapses and productivity destruction

In this paper we analyze the long-run relationship between output collapses—defined as GDP falling substantially below trend—and total factor productivity (TFP). We use a panel of 76 developed and developing countries during the period 1960–2004 to identify episodes of output collapse and estimate counterfactual post-collapse TFP trends. Collapses are concentrated in developing countries, especially Africa and Latin America, and were particularly widespread in the 1980s in Latin America. Overall, output collapses are systematically associated with long-lasting declines in TFP. We explore the conditions under which collapses are least or most damaging, as well as the type of shocks that make collapses more likely or severe. Furthermore, we provide a quantification of the associated welfare loss with output collapses.     

Protecting software development projects against underestimation

When a project in progress has been seriously underestimated, it is essential to figure out how much additional effort is required to complete it within its original scope and delivery date. This article posits that project contingencies should be based on the amount it will take to recover from the underestimation, and not on the amount that would have been required had the project been adequately planned from the beginning, and that these funds should be administered at the portfolio level. A model to calculate the required funds is developed.     

Concentration and foreign penetration in Latin American banking sectors: Impact on competition and risk

In the 1990s, Latin American banking sectors experienced an accelerated process of concentration and foreign penetration that prompted diverse views regarding its implications for the competitive behavior of banks and the financial stability of the system. In this paper, we examine these issues exploiting a rich bank-level database for eight Latin American countries. We find that, while increased concentration did not weaken banking competition within the region, foreign penetration appears to have led to a less competitive industry. Moreover, we find that bank risk has been negatively associated with competition which, coupled with the previous finding, explains the positive link between banking sector stability and foreign penetration revealed by the data.     

El efecto de la volatilidad del peso mexicano en los rendimientos y riesgo de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores

The effect of heavy tails due to rare events and different levels of asymmetry associated with high volatility clustering in the emerging financial markets requires sophisticated models for statistical modelling of such stylized facts. This article applies extreme value theory (EVT) to quantify tail risk on the daily returns of Mexican stock market under aggregation of foreign exchange rate risk from January 1971 to December 2010. This study focuses on the maximum-block method and generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) to model the asymptotic behavior of extreme returns in US dollars. The empirical results show that EVT-Based VaR measured at high confidence levels performs better than simulation historical and delta-normal VaR models on capturing fat-tails in the returns of highly volatile stock markets. Additionally, international investors holding long positions in Mexican stock market are more prone to experience larger potential losses than investors with short positions during local currency depreciation and financial crisis periods.     

Salesperson CLV orientation's effect on performance

Previous studies show how strategies based on the customer lifetime value (CLV) can lead to an increase of profitability for a firm. In this context, marketing serves the purpose of maximizing CLV and customer equity (the CLV of current and future customers). For most types of service firms, salespeople are direct participants in implementing the CLV concept. However, prior research does not answer the question of whether or how salesperson CLV orientation can enhance profits. Using data on salespeople in a large Chilean retail bank, this study shows that the effect of salesperson CLV orientation on salesperson performance follows an S-shaped function (which is first convex and then concave). Additionally, data does not support the idea that the optimum level of CLV orientation depends on salesperson customer orientation, salesperson adaptive selling behavior, or salesperson experience (i.e., CLV-oriented behaviors could be effective across a wide range of salespeople). As such, this study addresses an important concern among researchers and managers that is related to how to increase the salesperson performance. The findings of this study suggest that firms need to monitor individual salesperson CLV orientation more closely.     

Parametric estimation of inefficiency in cargo handling in Spanish ports

Port workers services have been usually heavily regulated and reserved exclusively for a special kind of workers, dockworkers, which seems to have been the cause of serious inefficiencies worldwide. During the eighties, law reforms have been introduced to solve this problem. In this paper we analyze and decompose efficiency in cargo handling operations in 19 Spanish ports from 1990 to 1998. The method chosen is that of the parametric estimation of both allocative and technical inefficiency using panel data and a quadratic cost function. Results show that although inefficiency has decreased overall, there has been over utilization of labor regarding capital, and technical inefficiency. This supports the need of further consideration of other aspects including competition.

Sequential Betting Behavior: A Test of Asymmetric Inconsistencies in Group Decision Making

Previous research has shown that individual decision makers tend to bet more than initially planned after experiencing a loss but not after a gain. This research tests whether groups in consensus decision‐making contexts also demonstrate similar asymmetric inconsistencies. Two experiments, one at the individual level and one with three‐person groups, were carried out based on a gambling‐type betting task. Although individuals planned more conservatively than groups regarding their betting behavior after the first outcome, both individuals and groups misestimated their own betting behavior after losses but not after gains. Negative, but not positive, emotional reactions to previous decision outcomes were also misestimated, leading to incorrect predictions of future behavior. Implications for theory and future research are discussed.     

Export Performance of Brazilian States to Mercosul and Non-Mercosul Partners

ABSTRACT

We investigate the role of the trade-weighted real exchange rate and foreign income on the export performance of Brazilian states, differentiating between Mercosur and non-Mercosur partners. The results indicate that state exports are price and income inelastic. There are differences in the influence of the different trade factors between the two groups of partners. One crucial difference is the relevance of the real exchange rate effect for non-Mercosur partners. This might be associated with the existence of specific rules for Mercosur that can overcome the usual effect of relative competitiveness associated with movements in the real exchange rate.     

Brazilian Consumer Preferences for Processed Tomato Packaging Using Conjoint Analysis

Brazil is the largest producer and consumer of processed tomato products in Latin America. However, the consumption preferences related to this product are poorly studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of certain characteristics of processed tomato product packaging on Brazilian consumer preferences. The revised Personal Involvement Inventory (PII) and conjoint analysis (CA) were applied to 206 consumers in Brazil. Four packaging attributes were evaluated: colour (green, red, and yellow); material (sachets, tin, and brick carton packaging); the presence of additional information; and the presence of “easy-open” devices. The CA technique showed that in general, the Brazilian participants were influenced positively by red brick carton and sachet packaging and by the presence of additional information and a device that facilitated opening the package. The results presented in this study are useful for the food industry to develop packaging and marketing strategies using consumer profiles.     

A No‐Arbitrage Fractional Cointegration Model for Futures and Spot Daily Ranges

The no‐arbitrage relation between futures and spot prices implies an analogous relation between futures and spot daily ranges. The long‐memory features of the range‐based volatility estimators are analyzed, and fractional cointegration is tested in a semi‐parametric framework. In particular, the no‐arbitrage condition is used to derive a long‐run relationship between volatility measures and to justify the use of a fractional vector error correction model (FVECM) to study their dynamic relationship. The out‐of‐sample forecasting superiority of FVECM, with respect to alternative models, is documented. The results highlight the importance of incorporating the long‐run equilibrium in volatilities to obtain better forecasts, given the information content in the volatility of futures prices. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 33:77–102, 2013