A simple analytical model of the adverse real effects of inflation

Abstract

The essential insight advanced in this paper is that the claim that inflation can impair growth makes most sense in the context of a monetary production economy, wherein a role for money in the determination of real activity is posited from the very start. We construct a model of inflation and growth that distinguishes between the properties of various qualitatively different inflation regimes. It is then shown how some of these regimes, by undermining confidence in various nominal contracts that are central to the process of accumulation in a monetary production economy, can adversely affect growth.     

The transfer of training: what really matters

Although organizations invest billions of dollars in training every year, many trained competencies reportedly fail to transfer to the workplace. Researchers have long examined the ‘transfer problem’, uncovering a wealth of information regarding the transfer of training. Inconsistencies remain, however, and organizations may find it difficult to pinpoint exactly which factors are most critical. Using Baldwin and Ford's model of transfer, we identify the factors relating to trainee characteristics (cognitive ability, self‐efficacy, motivation, perceived utility of training), training design (behavioral modeling, error management, realistic training environments) and the work environment (transfer climate, support, opportunity to perform, follow‐up) that have exhibited the strongest, most consistent relationships with the transfer of training. We describe our reasoning for extracting such variables from the literature and conclude by discussing potential implications for practice and future research.     

Students’ perception of CSR and its influence on business performance. A multiple mediation analysis

Firm managers play an important role in the implementation of corporate social responsibility (CSR) actions. Education is emerging as the key factor in developing a sense of moral responsibility amongst the business students who will eventually become company managers and decision makers. The aim of this research is, thus, twofold. First, to analyze the existence of a direct positive correlation between university students’ perception of CSR and its impact on business performance; and second, to examine the extent to which two factors (advantages brought by CSR and responsibilities toward stakeholders) act as mediation variables in the aforementioned correlation. The analysis was performed with a sample of 390 business‐related university students. Amongst the potential contributions made by this study we can highlight the possibility of knowing future managers’ way of thinking and of knowing the aspects where educational centers might improve their CSR teaching.     

A pairs trading strategy based on linear state space models and the Kalman filter

Among many strategies for financial trading, pairs trading has played an important role in practical and academic frameworks. Loosely speaking, it involves a statistical arbitrage tool for identifying and exploiting the inefficiencies of two long-term, related financial assets. When a significant deviation from this equilibrium is observed, a profit might result. In this paper, we propose a pairs trading strategy entirely based on linear state space models designed for modelling the spread formed with a pair of assets. Once an adequate state space model for the spread is estimated, we use the Kalman filter to calculate conditional probabilities that the spread will return to its long-term mean. The strategy is activated upon large values of these conditional probabilities: the spread is bought or sold accordingly. Two applications with real data from the US and Brazilian markets are offered, and even though they probably rely on limited evidence, they already indicate that a very basic portfolio consisting of a sole spread outperforms some of the main market benchmarks.     

Big and beautiful? On non-parametrically measuring scale economies in non-convex technologies

Knowledge on the scale economies drives the incentives of regulators, governments and individual utilities to scale-up or scale-down the scale of operations. This paper considers the returns to scale (RTS) in non-convex frontier models. In particular, we evaluate RTS assumptions in a Free Disposal Hull model, which accounts for uncertainty and heterogeneity in the sample. Additionally, we provide a three-step framework to empirically analyze the existence and extent of RTS in real world applications. In a first step, the presence of scale (and scope) economies is verified. Secondly, RTS for individual observations are examined while in a third step we derive the optimal scale for a sector as a whole. The framework is applied to the Portuguese drinking water sector where we find the optimal scale to be situated around 7–10 million m³.     

The contribution of yoga to the entrepreneurial potential of university students: a SEM approach

The literature suggests that all entrepreneurs share certain psychological and cognitive characteristics. Yoga is currently experiencing a surge in popularity due to both the physical and psychological benefits gained by yogi (practitioners of yoga). Irrespective of its more philosophical dimension, changes attributable to yoga have been identified in individuals’ psychological and behavioural patterns. It is in this context that this study analyses the characteristics associated both with entrepreneurs and yogis, seeking to specifically understand the respective personal attributes or the psychological and cognitive predispositions of both groups. The results of this study demonstrate that students who do engage in yoga show a propensity towards or strengthening of the psychological and cognitive attributes that are commonly associated with an entrepreneurial profile. Thus the study suggests that if entrepreneurial behaviour is a priority, then yoga should be integrated as a compulsory subject into general education from the primary school onwards.     

Rational Pricing of Internet Companies Revisited

In this article we expand and improve the Internet company valuation model of Schwartz and Moon (2000) in numerous ways. By using techniques from real options theory and modern capital budgeting, the earlier paper demonstrated that uncertainty about key variables plays a major role in the valuation of high growth Internet companies. Presently, we make the model more realistic by providing for stochastic costs and future financing, and also by including capital expenditures and depreciation in the analysis. Perhaps more importantly, we offer insights into the practical implementation the model. An important challenge to implementing the original model was estimating the various parameters of the model. Here, we improve the procedure by setting the speed of adjustment parameters equal to one another, by tying the implied half‐life of the revenue growth process to analyst forecasts, and by inferring the risk‐adjustment parameter from the observed beta of the company's stock price. We illustrate these extensions in a valuation of the company eBay.     

Corn and Mexican Agriculture: What Went Wrong?

The debt crisis of the 1980s caused the development strategy pursued by the Mexican government to be subject to a radical adjustment process that triggered deep repercussions for the agricultural sector and its farmers, particularly in the corn sector. In combination with the aggressive agricultural policies sustained by the U.S. government, the new approach meant that Mexican agriculture operated within an economic environment characterized by significant asymmetries and distortions, some internal and some imposed by major trading partners. This article summarizes and documents the most salient results of these policy events as well as their implications for the corn sector, and discusses some of the challenges to repair the agricultural sector in Mexico.     

Highway franchising and real estate values

It has become increasingly common worldwide to auction the construction and operation of new highways to the bidder that charges the lowest toll. The resulting highway franchises often entail large increases in the value of adjoining land developments. We build a model to assess the welfare implications of allowing large developers to participate in these auctions. Developers bid more aggressively than independent construction companies because lower tolls increase the value of their land holdings. Therefore developer participation unambiguously increases welfare, yet this increase is not necessarily monotonic in the number of developers participating. Welfare also increases when large developers can bid jointly.