Mortgage Prepayment and Default Decisions: A Poisson Regression Approach

This paper uses an extensive and geographically dispersed sample of single-family fixed rate mortgages to assess the prepayment and default behavior of individual homeowners. We make use of Poisson regression to efficiently estimate the parameters of a proportional hazards model for prepayment and default decisions. Poisson regression for grouped survival data has several advantages over partial likelihood methods. First, when dealing with time-dependent covar-iates, it is considerably more efficient in terms of computations. Second, it is possible to estimate full-hazard models which include, for example, functions of time as well as multiple time scales (i.e., age of the loan and calendar time), in a much more straightforward manner than partial likelihood methods for un-grouped data. Third, Poisson regression can be used to estimate non-proportional hazards models such as additive excess risk specifications. Taken together, our data and estimation methodology allow us to obtain a better understanding of the economic factors underlying prepayment and default decisions.     

Innovation efforts and performances of Brazilian firms

We analyze the relationship between innovation and firms' performance in Brazil using a comprehensive database that cross-references innovation information by PINTEC (Technological Innovation Research) of the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) and financial information from Serasa and Gazeta Mercantil. Results from the structural equation modeling suggest that variables associating with investments in innovation, which are connected to the innovative effort of a company, do not explain financial performance significantly.     

“To love beer above all things”: An analysis of Brazilian craft beer subculture of consumption

In this article, we describe and analyze the Brazilian craft beer subculture of consumption. We observed that feelings play an important role inside this subculture and used a sociocultural approach to analyze it. Field notes from 9 months of fieldwork at beer festivals, craft beer meetings, and Collective Brassages and 40 interviews with consumers are used as data. “Drink less, drink better” is the subculture’s motto and shows commitment to enjoyment and responsibility as craft beer consumers reject mass-produced beer and antisocial behaviors usually associated with beer drinkers. We differentiated members of the craft beer subculture of consumption according to their commitment to subculture ethos, beer-specific knowledge, experience drinking and making beer, and emotional attachment to craft beer. Craft beer consumers experience different sentiments as their status inside the subculture increases and hard-core members show a religious fervor for the beer that is similar to consumer devotion.     

Project Manager Profile Characterization in the Construction Sector in Bogotá, Colombia

This study aims to describe and evaluate the characteristics (educational background, training, skills, and experience) that make up the project manager profile in the construction sector in Bogotá, Colombia. This study is based on a project management literature review, expert interviews and surveys with a group of project managers in the construction sector, and comparisons between them. This evaluation aims to contribute to the development of a clearer de?nition of the project manager profile in the Colombian context. The identified project manager profile satisfies the essential desired characteristics with some particular weaknesses related to education and training in project management.     

Highway franchising and real estate values

It has become increasingly common worldwide to auction the construction and operation of new highways to the bidder that charges the lowest toll. The resulting highway franchises often entail large increases in the value of adjoining land developments. We build a model to assess the welfare implications of allowing large developers to participate in these auctions. Developers bid more aggressively than independent construction companies because lower tolls increase the value of their land holdings. Therefore developer participation unambiguously increases welfare, yet this increase is not necessarily monotonic in the number of developers participating. Welfare also increases when large developers can bid jointly.     

Time- or state-dependent price setting rules? Evidence from micro data

We use two rich micro-datasets on Portuguese firms to analyse the ability of time- and state-dependent price setting rules to explain durations of price spells, or the probability of price changes. Using a duration model with time-varying regressors, we find some evidence of state-dependent price setting behaviour, which suggests that time-dependent models are unable to fully describe the features of the data. Specifically, we find statistically significant impacts on the probability of a price change of inflation, the level of economic activity and the magnitude of the last price change. Besides being statistically significant, in some cases these effects are also economically important. Finally, it is found that negative and positive values of the covariates have different impacts on the expected duration of prices.     

How to Auction a Bottleneck Monopoly When Underhand Vertical Agreements are Possible

A seaport is awarded in a Demsetz auction to the operator bidding the lowest cargo-handling fee. The competitive auction is irrelevant if the port operator integrates into shipping and sabotages competitors, thus providing a motive for a ban on vertical integration. The paper shows that such a ban increases welfare even when underhand agreements with shippers are possible. For this result to attain, the auction must be combined with a sufficiently high floor on the cargo-handling fee that operators can bid in the auction. With no floor, a Demsetz auction is worse than an unregulated bottleneck monopoly.     

Imaginary money against sticky relative prices

This paper considers price setting in pure units of account, linked to the means of payment through managed parities. If prices are sticky in the units in which they are set, parity changes may facilitate equilibrium adjustment of relative prices. The paper derives simultaneously the optimal choice of unit of account by each price setter, and the optimal parity policy. The gains from having multiple units of account are computed for a simple calibrated economy.     

Privatizing Highways in the United States

We review the experience of both private toll-roads built in the United States during the 1990s, and argue that the problems they encountered could have been avoided if the length of the franchise contract would adapt to demand realizations. We also argue in favor of adjudicating private toll-roads via BOT-type contracts in competitive (Demsetz) auctions. The lessons of this paper are relevant since growing congestion and troubled government finances have made private toll-roads increasingly attractive in the United States.