The Interplay between Analytics and Computation in the Study of Congestion Externalities: The Case of the El Farol Problem

In this paper I study the El Farol problem, a deterministic, boundedly rational, multi‐agent model of a resource subject to congestion externalities that was initially studied computationally by Arthur (1994). I represent the interaction as a game, compute the set of Nash equilibria in mixed strategies of this game, and show analytically how the method of inductive inference employed by the agents in Arthur's computer simulation leads the empirical distribution of aggregate attendance to be like those in the set of Nash equilibria of the game. This set contains only completely mixed strategy profiles, which explains why aggregate attendance appears random in the computer simulation even though its set‐up is completely deterministic.     

Indirect inference with time series observed with error

We propose the indirect inference estimator as a consistent method to estimate the parameters of a structural model when the observed series are contaminated by measurement error by considering the noise as a structural feature. We show that the indirect inference estimates are asymptotically biased if the error is neglected. When the condition for identification is satisfied, the structural and measurement error parameters can be consistently estimated. The issues of identification and misspecification of measurement error are discussed in detail. We illustrate the reliability of this procedure in the estimation of stochastic volatility models based on realized volatility measures contaminated by microstructure noise.     

Financial opening, deposit insurance, and risk in a model of banking competition

We study the impact of competition on banks’ risk-taking behavior under different assumptions about deposit insurance and the dissemination of information. While financial opening increases banks’ riskiness, a risk-based deposit insurance or, alternatively, the public disclosure of financial information, are likely to mitigate this effect. Moreover, the limiting cases of uninsured but fully informed depositors, and risk-based full deposit insurance, yield the same equilibrium risk level. Although the welfare consequences of increased competition depend on its impact on risk, financial opening unambiguously improves welfare as we approach the limiting cases.     

An improved algorithm and solution on an integrated production-inventory model in a three-layer supply chain

Ben-Daya et al. (2010) established a joint economic lot-sizing problem (JELP) for a three-layer supply chain with one supplier, one manufacturer, and multiple retailers, and then proposed a heuristic algorithm to obtain the integral values of four discrete variables in the JELP. In this paper, we first complement some shortcomings in Ben-Daya et al. (2010), and then propose a simpler improved alternative algorithm to obtain the four integral decision variables. The proposed algorithm provides not only less CPU time but also less total cost to operate than the algorithm by Ben-Daya et al. (2010). Furthermore, our proposed algorithm can solve certain problems, which cannot be solved by theirs. Finally, the solution obtained by the proposed algorithm is indeed a global optimal solution in each of all instances tested.     

How globally contagious was the recent US real estate market crisis? Evidence based on a new contagion test

This paper utilizes a new contagion test based on case-resampling bootstrap technique to investigate whether there is any contagion effect in the interaction of the US real estate market with those of Australia, Japan and the UK arising out of the recent US real estate crisis or subprime crisis. Contrary to expectations, it is found that the relationship of the US market with the other markets following the US real estate market crisis cannot be characterized as one with contagion effect. Its relationship with the other markets is rather characterized by dependency behavior that prevails regardless whether the markets are under distress or not.     

Business cycle convergence and trade: Brazil and China in a changing world

The recent economic interaction between Latin America and Asia, particularly between Brazil and China, has attracted the attention of the academic world that seeks to understand the effects of this approach in terms of business cycle convergence, economic structure and development trajectory. This paper contributes to this debate, presenting new evidence about the type and quality of this relationship. Our results reveal that Brazil and China present different patterns of relationship between trade and productive specialization: while Brazil has an intra-industry trade pattern, China has an inter-industry trade pattern. We explore some normative implications and future research possibilities.     

Bank reforms and efficiency in Vietnamese banks: evidence based on SFA and DEA

This study examines the cost efficiency of Vietnamese banks from 2000 to 2014 in the first stage, and the selection and dynamic effects of two governance reforms, foreign partial acquisition and listing on the stock exchange, on the efficiency in the second stage. Empirical results from the two-stage Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) are highly consistent with those from the two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) . Specifically, the first-stage efficiency estimation indicates that the cost efficiency shows a slightly upward trend over the period 2000–2014, with the cost efficiency score being 0.93 and state-owned banks outperforming joint-stock banks (JSBs). The mixed process seemingly unrelated regression estimator which controls the potential endogeneity of public listing and foreign acquisition in the second stage shows that selection effects occur in the Vietnamese banking system: banks selected by the strategic foreign investors for partial acquisition and banks selected for public listing are more cost-efficient than those not selected. The short-term and long-term dynamic effects of foreign partial acquisition are documented: the cost efficiency of the Vietnamese banks post-partial acquisition is lower than prior-partial acquisition, and it experiences a decreasing trend since partial acquisition. However, the short-term and long-term dynamic effects of public listing are not evidenced: the cost efficiency of the banks after public listing is not statistically different from that before public listing, and it also reveals an unclear trend since public listing.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a post Keynesian open-economy model

Using a post Keynesian model, this study aims to analyze the stabilizing role of fiscal and monetary policies in an open economy with a managed exchange rate regime. The real exchange rate is modeled as an endogenous variable and inflation explained using the conflicting claims approach. The dynamic properties of macroeconomic equilibrium are evaluated in different regimes of fiscal and monetary policies. The main result of this study suggests that the preferred policy regime is the one in which economic authorities are complementary and fiscal policy plays an explicitly active role. In this regime, the fiscal policy must commit to the target for the rate of capacity utilization and the monetary authority must commit to the inflation target.     

Management Behaviour in Vietnamese Commercial Banks

This study identifies managerial behaviour in Vietnamese banks between the years 2000 and 2014, based on the managerial framework of banks, as identified by Rossi et al. ( 2009 ). This framework is built on the interrelationships between efficiency, risk, capital and diversification. This study uses the Z‐score to measure insolvency risk, the SFA to estimate cost efficiency, the ratio of total equity to total assets to capture bank capital and the HHI index to measure the diversification of revenue and earning assets. The results from the 3SLS estimator indicate that revenue diversification has an insignificant impact on insolvency risk, capital ratio and cost efficiency, but earning assets diversification has a negative effect on these three variables, supporting ‘classical diversification’, ‘economic capital’ and ‘monitoring’ behaviours. Moreover, a decline in cost efficiency leads to a rise in insolvency risk, implying ‘bad management’ behaviour; an increase in risk results in a reduction in cost efficiency, indicating ‘bad luck’ behaviour; and a reduction in capital ratio in the poorly capitalised banks leads to a growth in risk, suggesting ‘moral hazard’ behaviour. The results remain strongly robust when using an alternative risk measurement (the loan loss provision ratio) and an alternative SFA model.     

Public policies,political cleavages and urban space: state infrastructure policies in São Paulo,Brazil, 1975–2000

This article deals with the state policies of urban infrastructure in São Paulo, Brazil, from 1975 to 2000. Working with primary information about the investments made by the state in public works, we discuss a series of arguments present in the urban studies literature about the patterns of state investment in urban spaces and propose an alternative explanation for state action in Brazilian urban spaces in recent decades. We analyze the main elements that have influenced the overall pattern of investments, describe the main characteristics of this policy over time and in each of the municipal governments of the period, as well as develop an evaluation of the spatial distribution of the resources among each of the main social groups in the city.