Die prämienbegünstigte Zukunftsvorsorge in Österreich

Due to the predictable demographic developments and the budgetary restrictions in the Stability Pact of the Treaty of Maastricht the big pay-as-you-go public sector pension systems in many western European countries seem to have reached their limits. Since 2003 the Austrian government has put its trust in strengthening the third pillar of the pension system and supports private provision with state-aided premiums. In this paper this state-aided private provision system with its capital guarantee is presented, evaluated and analyzed. Moreover we point out the dilemma of this pension provision product: in the case of low asset returns the state premiums will be eroded by the expenses of the issuers. Furthermore it will be clarified that the issuers, in contrast to the clients, have no interest in investing in volatile assets since in that case the probability of exercising the capital guarantee will increase.     

THE EFFECTS OF GOAL EMPHASIS ON PERFORMANCE ON A COMPLEX TASK[1]

The article reports the results of a naturally occurring field experiment which took place in the Judge Advocate function of the Tactical Air Command (TAC), a major command within the US Air Force. Official Air Force goals for courts-martial processing time had existed for years but generally were ignored because they were considered unrealistic and unimportant. A new TAC staff advocate decided that processing time should be improved and took steps to emphasize goal attainment through various procedures. The result was a significant improvement in courts-martial processing time as compared to the rest of the Air Force where no such emphasis occurred. The implications of the results for goal setting theory and leadership are discussed.     

Kalman filtering estimation of unobserved rational expectations with an application to the German hyperinflation

The assumption that rational expectations always lie on a convergent path is subject to an empirical test using the German hyperinflation data. The estimation technique employs a Kalman filtering algorithm. After presenting a brief background for the convergent expectations problem and a derivation of the various model specifications, a generalized expectations model and its attendant Kalman filtering estimation technique are discussed. Additional estimation details and empirical results are then presented. Based on an assumption of normally distributed errors, the null hypothesis of convergent paths is rejected in all situations involving a deterministic specification of the evolution of the unobserved parameter which characterizes the convergent path. The same null hypothesis is rejected in four of the six cases corresponding to a stochastic specification of the evolution of the unobserved parameter which characterizes the convergent path. A discussion of these findings, their economic significance, and suggestions for further research concludes the paper.     

Climate policy and the optimal extraction of high‐ and low‐carbon fossil fuels

Abstract. We study how restricting CO₂ emissions affects resource prices and depletion over time. We use a Hotelling‐style model with two non‐renewable fossil fuels that differ in their carbon content (e.g., coal and natural gas) and in addition are imperfect substitutes in final good production. We show that an economy facing a CO₂ flow‐constraint may substitute towards the relatively dirty input. As the economy tries to maximize output per unit of emissions it is not only carbon content that matters: productivity matters as well. With an announced constraint the economy first substitutes towards the less productive input such that more of the productive input is available when constrained. Preliminary empirical results suggest that it is cost‐effective to substitute away from dirty coal to cleaner oil or gas, but to substitute from natural gas towards the dirtier input oil.     

Carbon leakage revisited: unilateral climate policy with directed technical change

Using a stylized theoretical model, we argue that current economic analyses of climate policy tend to over-estimate the degree of carbon leakage, as they abstract from the effects of induced technological change. We analyse carbon leakage in a two-country model with directed technical change, where only one of the countries enforces an exogenous cap on emissions. Climate policy induces changes in relative prices, that cause carbon leakage through a terms-of-trade effect. However, these changes in relative prices also affect the incentives to innovate in different sectors. This leads to a counterbalancing induced-technology effect, which always reduces carbon leakage. We therefore conclude that the leakage rates reported in the literature may be too high, as these estimates neglect the effect of price changes on the incentives to innovate.