Can a Wealthy Economy Gain from an EU Membership? Adjustment Costs and Long Term Welfare Effects of Full Integration—The Norwegian Case

We employ a large scale macroeconometric model to study adjustment problems and long term welfare effects of a Norwegian EU-membership. Accession costs depend significantly on the country's level of GDP, the size of its agricultural sector and tariff and VAT revenues as these elements determine the net membership contribution. Without the transfers, integrating the economy into EU generates a small welfare gain. This result is strongly affected by a long period with under-utilisation of resources. With the net contribution included, we identify a welfare loss. This is especially so if fiscal policy is changed to maintain the public sector budgetary balance.     

Fair Value and Risk Profile for Presale Contracts of Condominiums

Developers usually presell new condominiums, requiring purchasers to make down payments on a contract that allows them to purchase, at a fixed price, the finished condominiums on a later date. This presale contract is akin to a financial call option sold by the builder to the purchaser of the condo. In this paper, we value the presale contract from both the purchaser’s and the developer’s points of view. We examine the influence of various opt-out clauses, different interest rates and other factors on the value of presale contracts. We discuss the extent of risk sharing between the purchasers and the developers according to varying levels of down payments. We conclude that developers enjoy a reduction in risk without a corresponding reduction in expected profits by holding a presale.     

Output‐based rebating of carbon taxes in a neighbour's backyard: Competitiveness,leakage and welfare

We investigate how, in an open economy, carbon taxes combined with output‐based rebating (OBR) perform in interaction with the carbon policies of a large neighbouring trading partner. Analytical results suggest that, whether the purpose of the OBR policy is to compensate firms for carbon tax burdens or to maximize welfare (accounting for global emission reductions), the OBR rate should be positive in policy‐relevant cases. Numerical simulations for Canada, with the US as the neighbouring trading partner, indicate that the impact of US policies on the OBR rate will depend crucially on the purpose of the Canadian OBR policies. If, for a given US carbon policy, Canada's aim is to restore the competitiveness of domestic emission‐intensive and trade‐exposed (EITE) firms to the same level as before the introduction of its own carbon taxation, we find that the necessary domestic OBR rates will be insensitive to the foreign carbon policies. However, if not only the Canadian carbon tax but also an equally high US tax is introduced, compensatory Canadian OBR rates will be up to 50% lower, depending on the sector and on US OBR policy. If the policy objective is to increase economy‐wide allocative efficiency (welfare) of Canadian policies by accounting for carbon leakage, the US policies will have only a minor downward pressure on desirable OBR rates in Canada. Practical choices of OBR rates hardly affect overall domestic economic performance; thus, output‐based rebating qualifies as an instrument for compensating EITE industries without a large sacrifice in terms of economy‐wide allocative efficiency.     

The effects of the BSE outbreak on the security values of US agribusiness and food processing firms

Economic studies using aggregate data generally find that higher taxes are the most effective policy to reduce drunk driving while criminologists report strong evidence supporting law enforcement measures in policy evaluations. This paper evaluates these differing perspectives using the aggregate data that is typically used in the economic literature. OLS and fixed effects models show that police can affect the probability of arrest for drunk driving and, in combination with evidence from DUI deterrence experiments, this suggests that the failure of economic models to detect deterrence reflects the lack of systematic and sustained police efforts against DUI.     

Measuring the impact of crime on house prices

This paper uses data on over 2800 house sales in Jacksonville, FL to estimate the impact of crime on house prices. A GIS programme is used to develop neighbourhood characteristics that are unique to each observation. Crime data, available for 89 police beats are assigned to each observation. Weighting the seriousness of offences by the cost of crime to victims is used as an alternative to the customary measures of the number of index crimes. The cost of crime has virtually no impact on house prices overall, but homes are highly discounted in high crime areas.     

The role of exercise during adolescence on adult happiness and mood

The main research question for this paper was: Does exercise during adolescence predict happiness and positive moods in adult life? Data was collected through an online questionnaire (N?=?438). The questionnaire included a measure of happiness (The Subjective Happiness Scale), moods (The Profile of Mood States) and questions on current exercise and exercise during adolescence. Exercise during adolescence was a significant predictor for positive moods, even when controlling for current exercise. There is also a connection between exercise during adolescence and happiness, although it appears to be that exercise during adolescence predicts exercise in adult life, which in turn has a connection to happiness. Exercise was not a significant predictor of negative moods in adulthood.     

Sweet self-deception

People have a tendency to procrastinate when faced with aversive tasks—but they also procrastinate in relation to beneficial matters whose rewards are instantaneous. If agents value present anticipations of future consumption, revision of consumption plans may be viewed as a benign form of self-deception. We consider a minimal generalization of the Samuelson discounted utility model to allow for utility linked to next period consumption. Agents are assumed to vary with respect to their sophistication. In this context, commitment and self-control are obstacles to the pursuit of increased utility. We also examine different environments that are likely to facilitate repeated revisions.     

Optimal Timing of Climate Change Policy: Interaction Between Carbon Taxes and Innovation Externalities

This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) on the timing of climate change policy. We develop a model with a stock pollutant (carbon dioxide) and abatement technological change through R&D, and we use the model to study the interaction between carbon taxes and innovation externalities. Our analysis shows that the timing of optimal emission reduction policy strongly depends on the set of policy instruments available. When climate-specific R&D targeting instruments are available, policy has to use these to step up early innovation. When these instruments are not available, policy has to steer innovation through creating demand for emission saving technologies. That is, carbon taxes should be high compared to the Pigouvian levels when the abatement industry is developing. Finally, we calibrate the model in order to explore the magnitude of the theoretical findings within the context of climate change policy.