Impact of China's WTO Accession on East Asia

The industrialized and newly industrializing economies (NIEs) in East Asia will benefit from China's WTO accession, and the developing economies in the region may incur small welfare losses. China will increase its demand for high-end manufacturing products from Japan and the NIEs and farm products, natural resources, and manufactured goods from developing East Asia. New foreign investment may flow into these expanding sectors. The overall impact on foreign investment is likely to be positive in the NIEs but negative in developing East Asia. The NIEs may face heightened competition in global markets as China's comparative advantage shifts into high-end products. (JEL F11 , F13 , F15 )     

Determinants of Residential Land-Use Conversion and Sprawl at the Rural-Urban Fringe

We estimate a probit model of residential land conversion using parcel-level data from a rural-urban county in Ohio. Spatial landscape pattern metrics are used to quantify land-use patterns and to link patterns of residential sprawl with factors estimated to influence parcel-level land conversion. Findings indicate that the location of new residential development is influenced by preferences for lower density areas that nonetheless are close to existing urban development. Combined, these forces have generated a moderated pattern of residential sprawl. Spatial error autocorrelation is controlled using a spatial sampling technique that enables consistent estimation of the probit model.     

Deposit guarantee evaluation and incentives analysis in a mutual guarantee system

This paper analyzes how the deposit guarantee value affects the risk incentives in a mutual guarantee system. We liken the guarantee’s value to that of a European-style contingent claims portfolio. The main feature emerging from our model is that a mutual guarantee system would give banks an adverse incentive to increase riskiness. To mitigate this incentive, we introduce a regulatory provision modelled using a path-dependent contingent claim. By comparing the mutual guarantee system with a non-mutual one, we show that the former is less expensive, but implies higher adverse incentives for the banks, especially for undercapitalized institutions.     

How do UK Banks React to Changing Central Bank Rates?

This paper explores the interest rate transmission mechanism using a broad disaggregated sample of UK deposit and credit products. For a large proportion of rates the adjustment speed is time-varying, switching among four regimes according to the direction of the policy rate and its effect on the disequilibrium gap. In general, this sign asymmetry implies faster adjustment to the long run path when the policy rate revision widens the gap. There is evidence of curvature in the catch-up effect towards equilibrium, namely, large gaps entail a disproportionately faster correction although mainly for deposits. The size of the policy rate change also impacts the adjustment speed. The notable heterogeneity found across financial institutions/products regarding the presence of these nonlinear patterns raises important questions on how to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy. The cross-section heterogeneity uncovered can be explained to some extent by diversification, profit volatility, product range, market concentration and menu costs.     

A framework to measure integrated risk

A framework underlying various models that measure the credit risk of a portfolio is extended in this paper to allow the integration of credit risk with a range of market risks using Monte Carlo simulation. A structural model is proposed that allows interest rates to be stochastic and provides closed-form expressions for the market value of a firm's equity and its probability of default. This model is embedded within the integrated framework and the general approach illustrated by measuring the risk of a foreign exchange forward when there is a significant probability of default by the counterparty. For this example moving from a market risk calculation to an integrated risk calculation reduces the expected future value of the instrument by an amount that could not be calculated using the common pre-settlement exposure technique for estimating the credit risk of a derivative.     

Hotel Efficiency Analysis from the Customer’s Point of View in Romania: A Stochastic Production Frontier Approach

The purpose of this article is to measure the efficiency of hotel units in Romania from the customers’ point of view and to identify factors that explain the differences in efficiency between hotel units. A stochastic production frontier is estimated together with a technical inefficiency model using cross-sectional data from 622 hotel units in Romania. The results show that the average efficiency is high. However, there are significant differences between hotels in different regions and with different star ratings. The most influential factor affecting efficiency is the online visibility of a hotel unit on social media platforms and on travel planning sites. The study’s results offer insight for hotel decision-makers to be able to improve the perception of hotel efficiency by taking appropriate action to meet customer needs.     

Factors affecting classroom participation and how participation leads to a better learning

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we analyze various course- and student-related factors that affect participation grades within several college accounting classes. The second purpose is to determine whether in-class participation grades have an effect on exam performance in these classes. We find that, unlike in liberal arts and sciences courses, in accounting courses, participation grades for female students do not differ from participation grades for their male counterparts, regardless of class level. Overall, course level and student major have no direct effect on participation grades; however, the accounting majors and students in the lower level courses have better attendance than do non-accounting majors and students in more advanced courses. We observe that class schedule, in particular class duration and semester, affects students’ participation performance. Lastly, we find that students who participate more in classroom discussions perform 25% better on exams than do those with lower participation grades. This relationship holds for the three elements of participation grading: frequency of participation, consistency of participation, and attendance.     

Performance of Moving Average Trading Rules in a Volatile Stock Market: The Russian Evidence

This article examines the profitability of dual moving average crossover (DMAC) trading strategies in the Russian stock market over the 2003–12 period. It contributes to the existing technical analysis (TA) literature by testing, for the first time, the applicability of ordered weighted moving averages (OWMA) as an alternative calculation basis for determining DMACs. In addition, this article provides the first comprehensive performance comparison of DMAC trading rules in the stock market that is known as one of the most volatile markets in the world. The results show that the best trading strategies of the in-sample period can also outperform their benchmark portfolio during the subsequent out-of-sample period. Moreover, the outperformance of the best DMAC strategies is mostly attributable to their superior performance during bearish periods and, particularly, during stock market crashes.     

Spatially explicit micro-level modelling of land use change at the rural–urban interface

This paper describes micro‐economic models of land use change applicable to the rural‐urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro‐level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate individual land use decisions distributed across space. In contrast to the models featured by Nelson and Geoghegan, we focus on models that require spatially articulated data on parcel‐level land use changes through time. In characterising the spatially disaggregated models, we highlight issues uniquely related to the management and generation of spatial data and the estimation of micro‐level spatial models.