Estimation and validation of hybrid choice models to identify the role of perception in the choice to cycle

Cycling is one of the most sustainable and ecofriendly modes of travel and a good form of exercise. Many government and public health authorities recommend cycling to stay fit as well as to reduce air and noise pollution, CO₂ emissions, traffic congestion, and other negative consequences of car use. In light of these benefits, a major challenge for researchers today is how to promote cycling. However, in countries where cycling is not common, apart from the need for proper cycling facilities, one major issue concerns people’s perception of cycling for sport or recreational activities rather than as a mode of transport. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of perception in the likelihood of the bike being used for utilitarian purposes. We focus on the perception of: the bicycle as a means of transport; bikeability (in terms of usefulness and safety) and of bike infrastructure. Hybrid Choice Models (HCMs) have been used to estimate the effect of people’s perception on the propensity to bike. The HCM also accounts for the serial correlation between error terms in the discrete and latent perceptions, to allow for agent-common unknown factors. Furthermore, we also validate the model results using a hold-out sample and discuss some policy measures aimed at changing travel behavior. The results suggest that, besides individual characteristics, latent aspects related to the perception of the context and of the bicycle as a means of transport strongly affect the propensity to cycle.     

Advertising value and advertising processing

Advertising value research is rooted in the view that advertising messages are potential communications exchanges between advertisers and consumers. Since some level of processing effort on the part of receivers is necessary for successful exchanges to occur, it is proposed that advertising processing decisions are based on initial, spontaneous, categorical evaluations that combine to form an expected advertising value (EAV) assessment. If sufficiently positive, individuals devote additional processing effort to the advertisement and more detailed ad-related factors become the focus. Once processing ends after some or all of an advert has been taken in, an evaluation of whether or not the effort was actually worthwhile - designated as outcome advertising value (OAV) - should be a measurable outcome. Factors that account for OAV and its relationship to attitude-toward-the-advertisement (A ad ) are also discussed.     

Food Competition in World Markets: Some Evidence from a Panel Data Analysis of Top Exporting Countries

This paper investigates the relevance of relative prices and world income as determinants of food exports for the top trading countries in the period 1992–2012 using a panel data framework. We find that price elasticities generally take lower values for processed goods, and the opposite holds for income elasticities. Processed goods are also characterised by an inverse relationship between price elasticities and average unit values. The analysis suggests that both emerging and advanced countries can be expected to increase their export specialisation in processed goods. Furthermore, developed economies can face fierce competition from emerging countries by enhancing the quality content of their processed good exports.     

A vision of futures studies

The article looks at futures studies from the point of view of the author who has spent over 30 years in the field, with special reference to the World Futures Studies Federation. It suggests that visions are essential for conducting futures studies and education in futures studies is vital for preparing future oriented new generations. The author points out that around the world women are developing silent alternatives to the present societies geared to conflict and violence; this may lead to non-violent changes of which many are not aware. Futures studies will also benefit from examining futures of cultures as we seem to be developing a new culture of peace.     

Ad processing and persuasion: The role of brand identification

This article examines the relationship between ad learning and ad-based persuasion; it proposes that consumer identification of the advertising brand positively affects attitude toward the ad, which in turn enhances positive brand attitudes. A model integrating learning and attitudinal responses to ads was tested with aggregate readership recognition scores and attitudinal measures for different ads. Results suggested that identification of the advertiser is a crucial operation in ad processing. Ads that facilitated identification of the brand appeared credible, which contributed to enhancing their persuasive impact. Neither the degree of overall attention devoted to an ad previous to brand identification, nor subsequent extensive elaboration of the ad's copy, affected ad or brand attitudes. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Trading networks and liquidity provision

We study the profitability of traders in two fully electronic and highly liquid markets: the Dow and Standard & Poor?s 500 e-mini futures markets. Using unique information that identify counterparties to a transaction, we show and seek to explain the fact that the network pattern of trades captures the relations between behavior in the market and returns. Our approach includes a simple representation of how much a shock is amplified by the network and how widely it is transmitted. This representation provides a possible shorthand for understanding the consequences of a fat-finger trade, a withdrawing of liquidity, or other market shock.     

Futures research and global change

Futures research must be carried out on the basis of people having the right to choose their own future. There is thus a need, particularly in the developing countries, for the spread of training in futures to those who will themselves be shaping their own future, and this places responsibilities on futures specialists in the developed North. The global value changes underway must also be confronted if futures research is to retain its relevance. A ‘project approach’ is preferred, which embraces both extrapolative and normative futures methodologies.     

The Short Period and the Long Period in Macroeconomics: An Awkward Distinction

The aim of this paper is to show that the meaning of the well-known concepts of short period and long period is often unclear and may be seriously misleading when applied to macroeconomic analysis. Evidence of this confusion emerges through reappraisal of the interpretative debate of the 1980s and 1990s, which aimed to establish whether Keynes's General Theory should be considered a short- or long-period analysis of the aggregate level of production. Further evidence is provided by the ambiguous use that seems to be made of this distinction in macroeconomics textbooks, as will be shown in the paper. Having explored some possible explanations for the difficulties in defining and applying these methodological tools at a ‘macro’ level, the conclusion is drawn that it would be preferable to abandon this terminology in classifying different aggregate models and simply to make explicit the given factors and the independent and dependent variables in each model, exactly as Keynes did in Chapter 18 of his major work.