Optimal failure rates and penalty-bonus policies in the offshore petroleum sector

We characterize optimal time profiles of risk-reducing expenditures and wreck probabilities for petroleum platforms. The input to our analysis is the development of wreck cost, direct and imputed. Particular attention is paid to the question of how private companies deviating from socially optimal standards may be induced to comply with such standards by means of a) a time-variant penalty, b) a no-wreck bonus and c) a time-invariant penalty.     

Stepwise multi-criteria evaluation

In this article we show that quantitative methods for multi-criteria evaluation have three serious shortcomings. First, the addition of an alternative which has bad criterion scores may distort the comparison between other alternatives. Second, the addition of a criterion which does not differentiate between alternatives may distort the comparison between alternatives. Third, when a ranking of alternatives is derived from a multi-criteria evaluation, it suggests complete transitivity. It is shown that intransitivity may occur.Therefore a stepwise procedure is recommended. It involves the removal of all criteria which do not or hardly differentiate between the alternatives and a pairwise evaluation of alternatives.     

Rates of Return to Schooling in China

This study uses data from a 1988 survey of Chinese individuals to estimate rates of return to schooling in China. The Mincer-type rate of return to schooling was estimated at 4.02 percent in the rural areas and 3.29 percent in the urban areas; these are fairly low estimates compared with similar estimates in other countries. The rate of return to schooling for females was significantly higher than that for males in urban areas. In addition, members of the Communist Party in urban areas had significantly lower returns to schooling compared with non-members.     

Using an approximate kiefer-weiss solution for testing insect population densities

Summary A sequential testing procedure called 2-SPRT for the meanμ of the negative binomial distribution with known exponentk is presented. For any fixedμ ₀(μ ₁<μ ₀<μ ₂), the 2-SPRT provides an asymptotic solution to the modified Kiefer-Weiss problem. Determination ofμ ₀ such that the test provides an approximate solution to the Kiefer-Weiss problem is described. The behavior of the 2-SPRT and the Sequential Probability Ratio Test is investigated using Monte Carlo methods. The error probabilities and the average sample numbers are compared. All the computations were carried out on the Alabama Supercomputer.     

Nonparametric estimation of distribution functions

Summary Using Silverman and Young’s (1987) idea of rescaling a rescaled smoothed empirical distribution function is defined and investigated when the smoothing parameter depends on the data. The rescaled smoothed estimator is shown to be often better than the commonly used ordinary smoothed estimator.     

The effects of mergers on price and output: Two case studies from the airline industry

The literature on industrial organization contains very little direct evidence on the effects of actual mergers. This study estimates the effects of two recent airline mergers approved by the Department of Transportation over the objection of the Department of Justice. The merger of TWA and Ozark appears to have caused a slight increase in fares and a far greater reduction in service on city pairs out of St Louis. The merger of Northwest and Republic appears to have caused a significant increase in fares and a significant reduction in overall service on city pairs out of Minneapolis-St Paul.