Managing future uncertainty: Reevaluating the role of scenario planning

The business environment for many firms is changing rapidly and is becoming increasingly uncertain due to the disruption caused by new digital technologies, deregulation, new business models, and the threat of new competitive entrants. This dynamic competitive environment increases the level of uncertainty for senior executives and strategic planning teams who bear responsibility for the strategic development of the firm, particularly in terms of the future direction, scope, and the strategy required to deliver on corporate objectives. This in turn, places increased scrutiny on the strategic planning tools that are used to undertake a rational and comprehensive analysis of the competitive dynamics that inform strategy formulation. This article presents empirical findings and reflections on a scenario-planning project that sought to develop a long-term corporate level strategy. While scenario planning is an established constituent of the strategist’s toolbox, the increasing level of dynamism and uncertainty in many markets has meant that it has seen a resurgence. This article presents empirical findings on how the scenario-planning tool was selected and applied before reflecting on the individual and organizational outcomes of using scenario planning to develop an organizational strategy in uncertain market conditions.     

The thesis of “doux commerce” and the social licence to operate framework

The “doux commerce” thesis holds that commerce acts as a civilising force, contributing to the advancement and well-being of societies by inculcating certain core moral values in individuals (such as honesty, tolerance, and fair-dealing). This idea has a venerable history. However, I suggest that it faces a particular challenge in the current era in light of examples of systemic misbehaviour by global companies. This paper explores the nature of this challenge, taking the events around the financial crisis of 2007–2008 as a case study, and suggests that if we are to preserve the idea that commerce contributes to the common good then greater mechanisms of constraint on the worst excesses of business behaviour will be needed. In particular, I argue that we must recognise the need for all firms to have a social purpose and suggest that the “social licence to operate” framework, familiar from the mining and extraction sectors, could be used to provide crucial leverage on the behaviour of multinational firms.     

The role of celebrity in endorsing poverty reduction through international aid

• ‘Celebrity endorsement’ is a strategy that is gathering increasing momentum in attempts to develop public awareness of the plight of the poor. 1
• 1 We say below the goal of endorsement is not necessarily donations but political commitment.
Understanding of public perceptions is clearly important for international organizations seeking to make use of celebrity in furthering their causes. This paper reports the results of a preliminary survey conducted among 100 members of the Irish public to evaluate levels of awareness of celebrity involvement in international development work and the public's opinions about such involvement. The survey instrument was semi-structured with some open-ended questions. The focus was on respondents' ability to identify celebrities associated with such work, and to elicit their opinions on those celebrities' perceived aims, knowledge of international development, and influence upon the respondent. It also requested opinions of the value of celebrity involvement more generally. The results suggest that respondents are generally able to distinguish between celebrities and their various causes. Most found their involvement to be valuable in raising the profile of charities, though only a small number claimed to be personally influenced by such activity. The respondents were fairly cynical as to the motives of most celebrities, whose involvement they felt served their own aims—namely publicity—first and foremost.
• Most respondents were more likely to be influenced by their perceptions of the character of the celebrity rather than their causes. They respected celebrities they felt were genuinely committed to the causes they espoused, but paradoxically, they felt such commitment was best demonstrated by the celebrity keeping a low profile and not actively seeking publicity. Long-term commitment to a given cause was also highly regarded. The results are discussed with regard to theories of social persuasion and the dilemma's facing celebrities who get involve in endorsement of charity aid or campaigns. More research is necessary to substantiate and further develop our findings.

Copyright ©2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainty triggers overreaction: evidence from corporate takeovers

Behavioural finance models suggest that under uncertainty, investors overweight their private information and overreact to it. We test this theoretical prediction in an M&A framework. We find that under high information uncertainty, when investors are more likely to possess firm-specific information, acquiring firms generate highly positive and significant gains following the announcement of private stock and private cash acquisitions (positive news) while the market heavily punishes public stock (negative news) deals. On the other hand, under conditions of low information uncertainty, when investors do not possess private information, the market reaction is complete (i.e. zero abnormal returns) irrespective of the type of acquisition. Overall, we provide empirical evidence that shows that information uncertainty plays a significant role in explaining short-run acquirer abnormal returns.     

“不专业”的500强董事会

正更要命的是,集团董事会成员严重缺乏经验。集团网站上公布的董事名单中,有一名护士和一个退了休的出版商。当选董事根本不用承担任何行政责任合作社集团(The Co-Operative Group)总部位于英国曼彻斯特是世界上最大的消费者合作组织之一。值得一提的是,它有自己的所谓"股票",但"股价"固定不变,也不能交易。消费者购买"股票"后成为会员,投资金额多少并不重要,再多的投资也不会增加其在英国合作社集团中的发言权。     

Second and higher moments of fundamentals: A literature review

This literature review outlines the recent progress in fundamental second and higher moments of research. We survey the moments’ existence, formation, and financial market and macroeconomic implications. Research shows that time‐varying volatility and non‐Gaussian shocks exist throughout all measures of fundamentals at both the micro‐ and macro levels. In addition, the granular network among firms helps explain the origin of fundamental second and higher moments. Empirical evidence shows that the moments have strong predictive power on asset prices and macroeconomic variables. We also highlight several areas where more research is needed to better understand the moments.     

A Political Economy of Youth Policy in Tunisia

This paper seeks to add to debates over the contribution that a political economy approach can make to understanding the current condition of youth, specifically narrowing the focus to youth policy. The paper suggests an approach which locates youth not as a class in itself, but as being at the epicentre of the growing labour precariat. Youth policy, formulated and disseminated through the structures and hierarchies of global neo-liberal capital via the positive development approach, constructs narratives of youth as a social category which subordinate it to the changing needs of the labour market and disrupt the emergence of broad-based resistance or class consciousness. In Ben Ali’s Tunisia, youth policy had the added task of servicing the authoritarian reproduction of the regime, creating tensions and contradictions between the objectives of the various global and local structures and hierarchies of power at play.