EXCHANGE RATE FUNDAMENTALS,FORECASTING, AND SPECULATION: BAYESIAN MODELS IN BLACK MARKETS

Although speculative activity is central to black markets for currency, the out‐of‐sample performance of structural models in those settings is unknown. We substantially update the literature on empirical determinants of black market rates and evaluate the out‐of‐sample performance of linear models and non‐parametric Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) models against the random walk benchmark. Fundamentals‐based models outperform the benchmark in out‐of‐sample prediction accuracy and trading rule profitability measures given future values of fundamentals. In simulated real‐time trading exercises, however, the BTGP achieves superior realized profitability, accuracy and market timing, while linear models do no better than a random walk. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Managerial practices driving knowledge creation,learning and transfer in translational research: an exploratory case study

Despite its growing popularity in the biomedical literature, the particular phenomenon of translational research management has not been addressed from an organizational and strategic perspective yet. Our study aims to fill this gap by identifying a set of managerial practices that could influence how knowledge is created, amplified and transferred from biomedical research both to clinical practice and the productive sector. As a result of the theoretical review, we have proposed a preliminary model to guide our empirical work. We have developed an exploratory case study to gather organisational information from an outstanding translational research center. The results obtained from the analysis have allowed us to build an induced model of managerial practices that both affect the creation, integration and transfer of knowledge in the translational research organization studied, as well as derives a set of research propositions. Finally, we present the main academic and managerial implications of the work, together with its limitations and related future research lines.     

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in New EU Members: External Imbalances versus Real Convergence

In new EU members, the accumulation of net foreign liabilities has gone hand-in-hand with real exchange rate appreciations, contrary to intuition. This may be due to the induced effect that capital inflows on productivity and competitiveness (Balassa-Samuelson effect). An extended empirical model comprising relative productivity and net foreign assets is well-suited to capture this indirect, opposite effect of liabilities accumulation on the equilibrium exchange rates for the three largest economies: Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. The model makes it possible to estimate equilibrium exchange rates and misalignments. Going forward, sustaining high productivity growth will be essential to ensure a smooth transition towards euro membership.     

An Econometric Model of the Colombian Beef Sector: 1950–1970

Recent theoretical and empirical studies of beef cattle producers by Barros, Jarvis, Nores, Reutlinger, and Yver have focused on producers' supply response assuming cattle represent consumption goods and capital goods. To differentiate producer price response for cattle sold as consumption goods and cattle retained as capital goods requires data on herd and slaughter age-sex structure. This has limited the range of econometric work which could be carried out in many developing countries. This study utilizes a time series of the Colombian cattle herd which was recently constructed by Rivas and Valdes and which has the necessary age-sex and slaughter data to develop a complete system of structural equations representing the simultaneous determination of demand and supply for Colombian cattle over the 1950–1970 period.     

An analysis of e-business adoption and its impact on relational quality in travel agency–supplier relationships

This study analyzes how managers of retail travel agencies perceive the antecedents and consequences of adopting e-business in their supplier relationships. A comprehensive model integrating its antecedents and relational effects is developed and empirically tested using SEM. The study surveyed 101 travel agents in Spain. Research findings indicate that customer pressure has a strong influence on e-communication practices. E-communication with the travel agency's supplier and the pressure exerted by the sector are the main antecedents for e-procurement. Effects of e-business on relational quality are contradictory. E-procurement influences negatively on trust. Conversely, e-communication has a positive impact on trust, thus having a favorable impact on perceived reciprocity and travel agent's commitment to its supplier. Main findings indicate that the use of the Internet is largely driven by normative pressures, and this coercive power has a detrimental impact on trust. To avoid such negative consequences, perceived reciprocity is a prerequisite for committed supplier relationships.     

The future of Russian gas exports to East Asia: Feasibility and market implications

For a long time, the Russian government has aimed to diversify gas exports to East Asian countries. This gearing of Russia towards Asia will have great consequences on world energy, the global economy, and geopolitics in the coming years. This paper analyzes the growth potential of Russia's diversification strategy and the impact this policy would have on sales to Europe. As the most likely scenario is for total gas exports to grow at a moderate rate from 2010 to 2030, any increase in sales to Asia could make difficult the raising of exports to Europe. Our thesis is that this trade-off will depend primarily on domestic consumption trends, geographic targeting of investments, and commercial and financial alliances with foreign partners. However, imports from Central Asia, declining exports to Ukraine and Belarus, and Gazprom investments in other gas-producing countries could also affect gas exports and gas distribution among different markets.     

Innovation, Differentiation, and the Choice of an Underwriter: Evidence from Equity-Linked Securities

Investment banks imitate other bank’s innovative corporatesecurities and compete with the innovator to underwrite newissues. This article uses data of all the corporate offeringsof equity-linked and derivative securities in the SecuritiesData Company (SDC) to estimate the issuer’s demand ofunderwriting services provided by investment banks across differentvarieties of securities. It finds that the demand for the innovator’svariety is larger than the imitators’. This demand advantagedecreases with time and faster for securities that appear laterin a sequence of innovations. Imitation becomes less attractivelater in the sequence as information from earlier deals spills-overto all banks.     

A Class of Conjugate Priors for Log-Normal Claims Based on Conditional Specification

In this article, a new methodology for obtaining a premium based on a broad class of conjugate prior distributions, assuming lognormal claims, is presented. The new class of prior distributions arise in a natural way, using the conditional specification technique introduced by Arnold, Castillo, and Sarabia (1998, 1999) . The new family of prior distributions is very flexible and contains, as particular cases, many other distributions proposed in the literature. Together with its flexibility, the main advantage of this distribution is that, due to its dependence on a large number of hyperparameters, it allows incorporating a wide amount of prior information. Several methods for hyperparameter elicitation are proposed. Finally, some examples with real and simulated data are given.