Accounting Returns Revisited: Evidence of their Usefulness in Estimating Economic Returns

Accounting information is used for measuring firm performance in various financial applications—a practice supported by empirical studies demonstrating the value relevance of accounting numbers, but disputed by theoretical papers arguing that a firm's accounting rate of return (ARR) serves poorly as a proxy for its internal rate of return (IRR). We derive a new model of the ARR–IRR relation, and describe how the conservatism of GAAP constrains a firm's IRR to fall in a range bounded by its historical growth rate and ARR. Using cross-sectional data, we demonstrate that economic returns can be estimated from accounting numbers for many firms. We link empirical results to underlying economic theory, and thus contribute to understanding why accounting information is value relevant.     

A Multiplicative Decomposition Method to Identify the Sectoral Changes in Various Developmental Stages: Taiwan, 1966–91

This paper examines the structural changes and identifies sources of sectoral growth in Taiwan, which is an open but rapidly developing economy. A multiplicative version of a decomposition based on the Leontief input–output model is proposed. Empirical results based on deflated data using the shifting base technique show that average changes in final demand coefficients, mainly in household consumption and exports, account for a large portion of sectoral change in most industries. Extensive variations in industrial structure are detected in various developmental stages.     

When Does Extra Risk Strictly Increase an Option's Value?

It is well known that risk increases the value of options. Thisarticle makes that precise in a new way. The conventional theoremsays that the value of an option does not fall if the underlyingasset becomes riskier in the conventional sense of the mean-preservingspread. This article uses two new definitions of "riskier" toshow that the value of an option strictly increases (i) if theunderlying asset becomes "pointwise riskier," and (ii) onlyif the underlying asset becomes "extremum riskier."     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in the Euro Area with Different Assumptions on the Phillips Curve

In this paper we apply a static version of a New Keynesian macromodel to a monetary union (see Bofinger et al., J Econ Educ, 37:98–117 (2006), Walsh, J Econ Educ, 33:333–346 (2002)). We show in particular that a harmonious functioning of a monetary union critically depends on the correlation of shocks that hit the currency area. Additionally a high degree of integration in product markets is advantageous for the ECB as it prevents national interest rates from driving a wedge between macroeconomic outcomes across member states. In particular small countries are in need for fiscal policy as an independent stabilization agent with room to breath.

Are your students absent,not absent,or present? Mindfulness and student performance

The concept of mindfulness has received significant attention in recent years as the effects of ubiquitous distractions become more apparent in the workplace and in education. This study examines the relationship between three measures of mindfulness and student performance among a sample of 922 students in introductory economics classes from two large public universities. The authors’ measures of mindfulness include general dispositional mindfulness levels, frequency of mobile device usage during class as a measure of classroom mindfulness, and frequency of test anxiety as a measure of assessment mindfulness. The results show a positive association between all three measures of mindfulness and overall performance. The association between dispositional mindfulness and performance was greater for female students and students with lower grade point averages.     

Productivity spillovers from foreign multinationals and trade protection: firm‐level analysis of Vietnamese manufacturing

This paper examines how the presence of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) affects productivity in domestic private firms in Vietnamese manufacturing in 2005–10. The paper also examines how import protection has affected these productivity spillovers and how spillovers from wholly foreign MNEs and joint ventures differ. The most consistent result suggests wholly foreign MNEs impart negative spillovers while joint ventures tend to generate positive spillovers. Theory and random effects estimates also indicate that import protection reduces local firm productivity and weakens the effect of spillovers from all MNEs; but this result is not obtained when a fixed effects estimator is used. Results are similar in samples of labour‐intensive industries, which include close to three fourths of all sample firms, but differ markedly for more capital‐intensive groups.     

Effects of $9 Price Endings on Retail Sales: Evidence from Field Experiments

Although the use of $9 price endings is widespread amongst US retailers there is little evidence of their effectiveness. In this paper, we present a series of three field-studies in which price endings were experimentally manipulated. The data yield two conclusions. First, use of a $9 price ending increased demand in all three experiments. Second, the increase in demand was stronger for new items than for items that the retailer had sold in previous years. There is also some evidence that $9 price endings are less effective when retailers use Sale cues. Together, these results suggest that $9-endings may be more effective when customers have limited information, which may in turn help to explain why retailers do not use $9 price endings on every item.     

A Guadagni–Little Likelihood Can Have Multiple Maxima

Despite many advances in marketing models, the Guadagni–Little (1983) model is still in widespread use by both practitioners and academics. For many new marketing models, the Guadagni–Little model serves as a benchmark. The key variable that allows the Guadagni–Little model to accurately fit data is the loyalty variable, which is an exponential smoothing of past purchases. In this paper, I show that inclusion of this variable in the logit model may result in a likelihood function that can have multiple maxima. I am able to demonstrate this using simulated data and actual household scanner panel data. In addition, I document a systematic relationship between the loyalty coefficient and the loyalty smoothing parameter. Insight for this systematic relationship and the multiple maxima is obtained by recognizing a trade-off between capturing household heterogeneity and state dependence. Finally, in the Guadagni–Little model extreme parameter values capture two different idealized forms of consumer behavior. However, reported studies rarely find these extreme parameter values. I show that procedures commonly used to initialize loyalty biases against these extreme parameter values. This bias offers some explanation for the observed empirical regularity in Guadagni–Little parameter estimates and suggests that researchers should be cautious concluding these parameters capture regularity in consumer behavior.     

Modeling Marketing Dynamics by Time Series Econometrics

This paper argues that time-series econometrics provides valuable tools and opens exciting research opportunities to marketing researchers. It allows marketing researchers to advance traditional modeling and estimation approaches by incorporating dynamic processes to answer new important research questions. The authors discuss the challenges facing time-series modelers in marketing, provide an overview of recent methodological developments and several applications, and highlight fruitful areas for future research. This discussion is based on the First Annual Conference on Modeling Marketing Dynamics by Time Series Econometrics at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, Hanover, New Hampshire, USA on September 16–17, 2004.Insights from the First Annual Conference, Tuck School of Business at DartmouthThis revised version was published online in May 2005 with a corrected cover date.