INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSIS: THE NEXT 25 YEARS

This year marks the 25th anniversary of the International Input–Output Association and the 25th volume of Economic Systems Research. To celebrate this anniversary, a group of eight experts provide their views on the future of input–output. Looking forward, they foresee progress in terms of data collections, methods, theory testing, and focus and scope.     

Did the Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act Alter Farm Enterprise Diversification?

We estimate how much United States farms changed enterprise diversification in response to a marked increase in crop insurance coverage brought about by the 1994 Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act, which substantially increased insurance subsidies. The analysis exploits farm‐level panel census data to compare farm‐specific changes in enterprise diversification over time. By examining diversification decisions of the same farms over time, we control for time‐invariant unobserved individual heterogeneity. We then use pooled cross‐sectional data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Resource Management Survey to estimate the relationship between farm diversification and average returns. We find that the insurance subsidies caused a modest increase in enterprise specialisation and production efficiency. Estimated efficiency gains are far less than the subsidies.     

Personalized charity advertising. Can personalized prosocial messages promote empathy,attitude change,and helping intentions toward stigmatized social groups?

This study examines the role of personalized charity advertising in promoting empathy, attitude change, and helping intentions toward stigmatized social groups. Based on theories of message involvement, empathy, and reactance, we predicted that higher levels of involvement elicited by a personalized charity advertisement would reinforce empathy and prosocial outcomes. An online experiment was conducted using a personalized and a nonpersonalized version of a charity advertisement for a campaign soliciting donations of winter coats for homeless people. As expected, structural equation modeling revealed a positive indirect effect of personalization on prosocial outcomes (attitudes and behavioural intentions toward homeless people, and willingness to donate to the campaign) that was mediated by involvement and empathy. However, in addition to promoting involvement and empathy, personalization also led to heightened reactance, which detracted from the positive effects. Theoretical as well as practical implications of the findings for personalized charity advertising are discussed.     

Frequency of observation and the estimation of integrated volatility in deep and liquid financial markets

Using two newly available ultrahigh-frequency datasets, we investigate empirically how frequently one can sample certain foreign exchange and U.S. Treasury security returns without contaminating estimates of their integrated volatility with market microstructure noise. Using the standard realized volatility estimator, we find that one can sample dollar/euro returns as frequently as once every 15 to 20 s without contaminating estimates of integrated volatility; 10-year Treasury note returns may be sampled as frequently as once every 2 to 3 min on days without U.S. macroeconomic announcements, and as frequently as once every 40 s on announcement days. Using a simple realized kernel estimator, this sampling frequency can be increased to once every 2 to 5 s for dollar/euro returns and to about once every 30 to 40 s for T-note returns. These sampling frequencies, especially in the case of dollar/euro returns, are much higher than those that are generally recommended in the empirical literature on realized volatility in equity markets. The higher sampling frequencies for dollar/euro and T-note returns likely reflect the superior depth and liquidity of these markets.     

AMBITIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR ASSESSING MILITARY PERFORMANCE IN CRISIS RESPONSE OPERATIONS

This paper addresses the issue of measuring armed forces’ performance in crisis response operations. By means of interviews (17 respondents) and a large scale survey (1,253 respondents) field and general officers of the Netherlands Armed Forces (NAF) have been questioned on perceived organisational success in crisis response operations. The Dutch officers assess the NAF's performance positively. A number of senior officers are hesitant about the usefulness of measuring the performance of crisis response operations. According to them the context in which the operations are being executed is too complex. Most interviewees, however, are convinced that measuring performance is useful and should be improved. These military leaders express a strong need for criteria to assess their performance on the job.     

On Conformity Testing and the Use of two Stage Procedures

Conformity testing is a systematic examination of the extent to which an entity conforms to specified requirements. Such testing is performed in industry as well as in regulatory agencies in a variety of fields. In this paper we discuss conformity testing under measurement or sampling uncertainty. Although the situation has many analogies to statistical testing of a hypothesis concerning the unknown value of the measurand there are no generally accepted rules for handling measurement uncertainty when testing for conformity. Usually the objective of a test for conformity is to provide assurance of conformity. We therefore suggest that an appropriate statistical test for conformity should be devised such that there is only a small probability of declaring conformity when in fact the entity does not conform. An operational way of formulating this principle is to require that whenever an entity has been declared to be conforming, it should not be possible to alter that declaration, even if the entity was investigated with better (more precise) measuring instruments, or measurement procedures. Some industries and agencies designate specification limits under consideration of the measurement uncertainty. This practice is not invariant under changes of measurement procedure. We therefore suggest that conformity testing should be based upon a comparison of a confidence interval for the value of the measurand with some limiting values that have been designated without regard to the measurement uncertainty. Such a procedure is in line with the recently established practice of reporting measurement uncertainty as “an interval of values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand”. The price to be paid for a reliable assurance of conformity is a relatively large risk that the procedure will fail to establish conformity for entities that only marginally conform. We suggest a two‐stage procedure that may improve this situation and provide a better discriminatory ability. In an example we illustrate the determination of the power function of such a two‐stage procedure.