Alternative Defaultable Term Structure Models

The objective of this paper is to consider defaultable term structure models in a general setting beyond standard risk-neutral models. Using as numeraire the growth optimal portfolio, defaultable interest rate derivatives are priced under the real-world probability measure. Therefore, the existence of an equivalent risk-neutral probability measure is not required. In particular, the real-world dynamics of the instantaneous defaultable forward rates under a jump-diffusion extension of a HJM type framework are derived. Thus, by establishing a modelling framework fully under the real-world probability measure, the challenge of reconciling real-world and risk-neutral probabilities of default is deliberately avoided, which provides significant extra modelling freedom. In addition, for certain volatility specifications, finite dimensional Markovian defaultable term structure models are derived. The paper also demonstrates an alternative defaultable term structure model. It provides tractable expressions for the prices of defaultable derivatives under the assumption of independence between the discounted growth optimal portfolio and the default-adjusted short rate. These expressions are then used in a more general model as control variates for Monte Carlo simulations of credit derivatives. Nicola Bruti-Liberati: In memory of our beloved friend and colleague.     

Endspurt. Mediales Horse-Racing im Wahlkampf

The habit of presenting the candidates in a political election like horses in a race ensures drama and excitement and has therefore proven popular with the media especially during a campaign. For several years, communication and political science have been criticizing the media’s election coverage for not emphasizing the issues but focusing instead on the candidates’ relative standing in the polls. This horse race journalism is said to replace content by entertainment. The assumption that this format has increased over the past years and also grows within a single election year as the election approaches has now been reassessed empirically. A comparison of the two major German newspapers Süddeutsche Zeitung and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung of the years 1976 and 2005 revealed surprising findings: the share of the horse-racing format in election campaign coverage is considerably lower than expected and has increased only a little within the past three decades. Quantity has apparently been overestimated, at least considering high-quality newspapers. Therefore it has to be asked whether the newsworthiness of horse racing leads to exceeding consumption and in consequence to a biased perception by its critics.     

Educational travel: The Overseas Internship

An important objective of educational travel programs is to teach students how to bridge cultural distance. Research remains inconclusive to what extent and under what circumstances students actually learn from educational travel experiences. This paper examines the influence of cultural distance on the perceived learning effects of the overseas internship, specifically cross-cultural competencies and management skills. It is shown that asymmetric cultural distance and psychic distance have a negative relationship with the perceived learning of management skills and interaction with locals. Students traveling to low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia in particular tend to face difficulties.     

Trade Liberalization and Cartel Stability

Can reduced trade barriers promote a collusive understanding about not exporting into each others domestic markets? Reduced trade costs increase the short‐run gains from starting exporting, but can also make the long‐run punishment of such a strategy harsher. If collusion on prices is supported by a trigger strategy, a reduction in trade costs weakens competition in the sense that collusion is easier to sustain. In a corresponding model with collusion on quantities, this conclusion is reversed. The authors also discuss how results change if grim trigger strategies are replaced by stick‐and‐carrot punishments.     

Adoption of soil conservation practices in Belgium: An examination of the theory of planned behaviour in the agri-environmental domain

Soil erosion is a problem with serious on-site and off-site consequences. There exists a broad series of measures to mitigate soil erosion, unfortunately policy makers observe little voluntary adoption. This paper reports on a study to elicit the factors explaining adoption of soil erosion control practices in Belgium. Following a socio-psychological approach, the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), adoption of cover crops, reduced tillage and buffer strips is evaluated using linear regression techniques. Results show that the most explaining factor is attitude towards the soil conservation practice. The TPB adapted to include perceived control and difficulty appears to provide a suitable framework for evaluating adoption of erosion control measures in Belgium. Future interventions directed at promoting erosion control measures should be directed at changing the attitude of farmers. Further study is, however, required in order to elucidate the cognitive foundations of the negative attitude of a majority of farmers towards the implementation of erosion control practices.     

Organizing for Product Development Projects

How should companies organize to support the development of new products? Erik Larson and David Gobeli assessed the relative effectiveness of five different project management structures by comparing the performance of 540 development projects in terms of cost, schedule and technical performance. The findings contradict Peters and Waterman's popular conclusion that project teams are superior to matrix structures for developing new products and services. Both the balanced matrix and project matrix compared favorably with project teams in terms of cost, schedule and technical performance. Furthermore, the project matrix received a stronger recommendation from managers than the project team. Little support was found for either the functional or functional matrix approach to project management.     

Upswing in the world economy

The world economy gained distinct momentum last year. Following North America, the forces for growth have now prevailed in Western Europe and the Japanese economy has also picked up. Real gross domestic product in the industrial countries rose faster than expected at 3%. Will this upward trend keep going, as it must to alleviate unemployment?