Development banking and technological development: a case study of industrial development banks in the GCC countries

This article explores the important role of Industrial Development Banks in promoting the quality of technological development. It is argued that the historical experiences of the developed economies and several developing economies during recent times support the need and potentials of a more pro-active role by Industrial Development Banks. Against this background, the specific experiences of Industrial Development Banks in the Gulf Co-operation Council Countries are examined and the results of a select field survey are reported. This exploratory study suggests that some fundamental steps are needed in order to develop Industrial Development Banks from being comparatively passive conduits of technological aid to more active promoters of technological development.     

Inter-industry Technology Spillover Effects in China： Evidence from 35 Industrial Sectors

The present paper calculates 35 industrial sectors’ similarity matrices for the period of 1997-2008 using China’s input-output tables for 1997,2002 and 2007,and uses these to measure inter-industry technology spillover to analyze the spillover effects on industrial sectors’ labor productivity.The empirical analysis shows that inter-industry technology spillover has a significant positive effect on the labor productivity of each industry.The elasticity of productivity effects of inter-industry technology spillover is not only larger than that of direct R&D input,but also increases over time.We group the industries into four major categories and find that the inter-industry technology spillover effect within the categories is,on average,greater than that between the four categories,indicating that technology spillover occurs more easily between similar industries.This research shows that the interindustry technology spillover effect in China has begun to increase,and the government should take advantage of this effect.     

The new public management and the UK Police Service

This article explores the impact of the introduction of the New Public Management (NPM) within the UK Police Service since the mid-1990s. A specific focus upon individual performance management (one of the central features of NPM) is examined from the perspective of the police sergeant who has primary responsibility for managing performance and ultimately the delivery of policing services within one of the UK's ‘essential’ public services. After a discussion of the literature on individual performance management within the context of the NPM, the article identifies four major research questions relating to: the job role demands of performance management; access to valid and reliable performance management information; the capacity to provide follow-up development and support; and the wider integration of performance management with organization strategy and service objectives. After reporting on interview data collected from role sets in which the sergeant is a focal member, the article concludes with a discussion of the constraints upon effective performance management within the NPM.     

A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept

This paper suggests a technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process. This approach focuses primarily on the utilization of the information that has been skipped in conventional Delphi survey data. That is, through a simple statistic, the interrelationships among sequential technology developments can be extracted in a formal structure of a semi-Markov model from the original Delphi panel's estimates. A simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships. This technique provides a flexible and useful tool for R&D planners or project managers, especially in postanalysis of Delphi forecasting. To make good use of the approach, a computer-based interactive Delphi data analysis system (IDEAS) is implemented in IBM PC.     

关于后危机时代我国商业银行可持续发展策略的思考

银行业的可持续发展,就是在保持银行业与实体经济协调发展的前提下,自身资源配置不断趋于均衡合理、金融风险得到有效控制、金融生态环境持续优化、经济效益和竞争力不断增强的过程。文章从内外部环境分析了我国商业银行可持续发展的推动因素,并从顺应结构调整要求完善信贷业务经营模式,健全资本管理体制,强化全面风险管理机制以及坚持可持续金融创新战略等角度,提出＂十二五＂时期商业银行可持续发展策略建议。     

非线性网络的故障诊断

本文讨论了将K故障证实法推广于具有不可及节点的非线性网络的多故障诊断问题。提出了一种新的故障检验和分析方法,通过诊断实例,说明了本方法的可行性。