Battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles: Expert views about prospects for advancement

In this paper we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for advances in battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles. We find disagreement among the experts on a wide range of topics, including the need for government funding, the probability of getting batteries with Lithium Metal anodes to work, and the probability of building safe Lithium-ion batteries. Averaging across experts we find that U.S. government expenditures of $150 M/year lead to a 66% chance of achieving a battery that costs less than $200/kWh, and a 20% chance for a cost of $90/kWh or less. Reducing the cost of batteries from a baseline of $384 to $200 could lead to a savings in the cost of reducing greenhouse gases of about $100 billion in 2050.     

Attention to social comparison information and brand avoidance behaviors

This research links brand avoidance behaviors to attention to social comparison information (ATSCI). We posit that high (vs low) ATSCI consumers will suffer from more social-evaluative uncertainty, i.e., more uncertainty regarding others’ reactions to their brand choices. To alleviate this problem, high ATSCI consumers will avoid distinctive or conspicuous brands and brand icons that might draw the attention of others, playing safe in their brand choices, rather than risking social disapproval. Two preliminary studies provide support for the theoretical assumptions, confirming that ATSCI is positively associated with brand consciousness, brand social-evaluative uncertainty, and brand avoidance motivated by social-evaluative concerns. Study 1 examines brand identification and shows that although high and low ATSCI consumers identify themselves with equally prestigious brands, the former avoid identifying with distinctive brands. Study 2 demonstrates that unlike their low ATSCI counterparts, high ATSCI consumers avoid conspicuous brand logos even in the case of highly prestigious brands.     

Averting Regulatory Enforcement: Evidence from New Source Review

This paper explores firms' response to regulatory enforcement. New Source Review (NSR), a provision of the Clean Air Act, imposes stringent emissions limitations on significantly modified older power plants. In 1999, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sued owners of 46 plants for NSR violations. We study how electricity companies respond to both the perceived threat of future action, and the action itself. A discrete choice model estimates plants likelihood of being named in lawsuits increases with large historic emissions and investments. On the eve of the lawsuits, emissions at plants with a one standard deviation greater probability of being sued fell approximately 10%.     

“Probability of risk aversion” and other applications of derivatives of the certainty equivalent

“Probability of risk” aversion is principally concerned with reactions to scaling up of probabilities of non-zero values of a non-positive random variable by a common factor. Decreasing probability-of-risk aversion is defined and shown to be equivalent to ordinary risk aversion. Implications of this for insurance are pointed out. The sort of scaling involved is the same as that involved in “self-protection,” and it is shown that, for any expenditure on self-protection, say x, a concave utility function will prefer a coinsurance policy, costing x, which leaves probabilities unchanged, but scales down loss amounts by the same proportion as probabilities are scaled under self-protection. Properties of several comparative concepts of decreasing risk aversion are established. Derivatives of the certainty equivalent (CE) are used to elucidate well-known comparative static results in models of expected utility maximization. Finally, the study proves that concavity of the CE implies convexity of the coefficient of absolute risk aversion and examines the role of curvature of the CE in exploring relationships between properties of risk vulnerability, properness, and standardness.

Apologies and Transformational Leadership

This empirical investigation showed that contrary to the popular notion that apologies signify weakness, the victims of mistakes made by leaders consistently perceived leaders who apologized as more transformational than those who did not apologize. In a field experiment (Study 1), male referees who were perceived as having apologized for mistakes made officiating hockey games were rated by male coaches (n = 93) as more transformational than when no apology was made. Studies 2 (n = 50) and 3 (n = 224) replicated this effect in two vignette studies to enhance internal and ecological validity. Contrary to expectations in Study 3, there were no apology×leader gender interactions. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

A game-theoretic model of coalition formation among primates

This paper models the coalition formation process among primates as a sequential game. The population consists of individuals having distinct social ranks which is determined by the individual’s resource holding potential. Each member of the population is interested in gaining access to a food resource, either individually or via a coalition. At any given stage of the game, a player can either propose a specific coalition or he can be proposed to in order to join one. Hence, the strategy of a player consists of a sequence of decisions regarding who to propose to for the formation of a coalition and which proposals to accept or reject. We derive the preferences of the players over the various coalition structures under the assumption that the probability of a coalition to obtain the resource is given by a logistic distribution as a function of relative strengths of the players. We show that, given the primates’ strategic behavior, a variety of different coalition structures can emerge in equilibrium.      

Objective measures as a predictor of late payments by high‐risk borrowers

Manufactured homes (also known outside the US as prefabricated homes) are a viable housing option for low‐income buyers, but traditional mortgages are not available for purchase of manufactured homes because of a perception of higher risk of default among purchasers of manufactured homes. Research suggests that creditscoring models which incorporate objective data such as income, debt‐to‐income ratio and credit history result in an accurate and objective predictive tool to estimate likelihood of late payments and default among traditional home buyers. This study showed that these same models can be applied similarly to purchasers of manufactured homes. A Tobit model was developed to evaluate which factors most accurately predict default and late payment behaviour among borrowers who purchased a manufactured home. The model showed that when decomposed into the probability of making a late payment and number of late payments, credit score and income are both significant predictors in both sets of borrowers of both the probability of making a late payment and the number of late payments. The higher the credit score, the less likely the borrower is to make a late payment.     

Exploring determinants of meeting planners’ commitment to the business relationships with destination management companies

Although there is a demand for research on a business-to-business relationship between meeting planners and destination management companies, the current hospitality and tourism literature is insufficient in its attempt to understand the dynamics of this unique relationship. Recently, in the meeting industry, destination management companies have been recognized to experience a more challenging business environment due to the abundance of online vendor information which activates meeting planners’ disintermediation of destination management company services. To provide more practical implications for these key meeting players, this study urges that the key factor that encourages meeting planners to continue using destination management companies is trust. Therefore, this study examines determinants of the trust–commitment relationship as a means for meeting planners to achieve a more sustainable relationship with destination management companies. Applying and extending social exchange theory, this study also explores the determinants of the future relationship (commitment or termination). Findings of this research will provide the industry with suggestions for their relationship development.