Local persistence and the PPP hypothesis

This paper examines the statistical properties of the bilateral real exchange rates of the U.S. vs. France, Germany, and the U.K. during the Post-Bretton-Woods period, and draws implications on the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis. Contrary to traditional studies that consider only unit root and stationary processes to describe the real exchange rate behavior, this paper considers an in-between process, the locally persistent process. The empirical results demonstrate the following two findings: (1) Locally persistent processes describe the real exchange rate movements better than unit root and stationary processes, which implies that PPP reversion occurs and PPP holds in the long-run. (2) The confidence intervals for half-life deviations from PPP under local persistence tend to be narrower than those obtained by assuming the ADF and the local-to-unity models.     

Coming attraction

Francesca Cornelli, Richard D'Aveni, Andrew Kakabadse, Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Markus Reitzig, Fons Trompenaars and Kim Warren share their latest research.     

The Permanent Export Hypothesis and Foreign Trade of a Centrally Planned Economy: A Case Study of North Korea

Huge outstanding debts of Third World Centrally Planned Economies(CPEs) notwithstanding, their trades with industrialized countries have been continuing briskly. In order to safeguard against an aggravation of current debts of the CPE, however, an industrialized country determines annually the maximum amount of imports permitted for a CPE on the basis of the CPE's permanent exports. This paper attempts to develop a permanent export model and apply it to the foreign trade of North Korea. [F 14]     

Beyond convenience: the future for independent food and grocery retailers in the UK

The UK's independent food and grocery retail sector's competitive advantage of 'convenience' has been eroded in recent years as major retailers increase opening hours and develop their own convenience trading formats. As a result, large numbers of independent retailers are closing. A UK-wide survey was undertaken to identify other sources of competitive advantages, and the changes needed to stop or reverse the decline in this sector. Exploratory semi-structured interviews led to the development of a questionnaire on six major issues affecting the sector. 'Snowball' sampling, using industry partners, provided 142 respondents. The provision of a 'social shopping experience' emerged as a key competitive advantage that could be developed. Improving vertical and horizontal trading alliances, and the wider use of information technology, provided other options.     

The use of accounting information for the valuation of dual-class shares listed on China's stock markets

This study examines whether accounting data are useful in helping explain the market value of listed firms in China. In particular, we focus our investigation on companies that have issued dual-class shares sold to domestic investors (A-shares) and foreigners (B-shares). Domestic accounting standards (DAS) are used for the financial statements of A-shares while international accounting standards (IAS) are used for B-shares. Our results show that IAS earnings information is incorporated in the prices and returns of B-shares. In contrast, A-share investors appear to place most weight on DAS earnings and only recently has there been an association with IAS information. Book values are value relevant for B-share prices but not for A-share prices. Sensitivity tests show that accounting information is more likely to be impounded in share prices and returns for firms with high individual (i.e. non-government) share ownership. Based on our results, we argue that China's move towards the adoption of IAS will be useful for A-share investors, especially in light of the country's recent accession to the WTO and the consequent opening-up of the economy.     

销售要找到＂关键人物＂

作为一个商业新手，你不得不为每一笔销售而拼尽全力。如果情况变成有一群稳定的、连续的、热情的准客户群主动找上门来，是不是很美妙呢？来自于客户和其他企业家的推荐能帮你把你的新公司列入备选名单。但要想达到上述效果，只是散发名片、在家人和朋友中间口口相传是远远不够的。你必须与影响者（influencers）建立关系那些有能力影响对你公司看法的人、或那些和你的最佳准客户一对一地打交道时能进行直接推荐的人。     

The Effects of Tariffs and Export Subsidies on Entry Barriers and Investment

This paper explains the effects of unilateral tariffs and export subsidies on entry decisions in an imperfectly competitive industry, and suggests that carefully targeted trade policies play a strategic role in shifting the industry structure and the terms of subsequent competition. The model provides a new justification for tariffs which is different from the traditional infant industry argument; the tariff affects foreign firms' reactions as well as those of the domestic firms. [410]     

An Empirical Analysis on Capital Flows: The Case of Korea and Mexico

This paper discusses causes of capital flows in Korea and Mexico. Both countries received substantial amounts of foreign capital in the late 1980s and early 1990s. International capital helped these countries achieve a higher standard of living and faster economic growth. However, undesirable macroeconomic effects such as appreciation of real exchange rate and widening current account deficits usually accompany foreign capital inflows. The vector autoregressive (VAR) method is applied to investigate the underlying shocks causing the capital inflows. The main findings are that the U.S. business cycle and shocks to foreign interest rates account for more than 50% of capital inflows to both countries in the past two decades.     

Efficiency of the Banking Industry Structure in Korea*

This paper analyzes whether the efficiency of the Korean banking industry has improved since the bank restructuring in 1997, and whether a bank with high efficiency has a larger market share. This paper uses an efficient structure hypothesis model to examine the relationship between the banks' efficiencies and their profitability. The data envelopment analysis method is applied to measure the efficiency and profitability of the banking industry in order to minimize possible bias due to the inflow of public funds for the bank consolidation. The two‐step Heckman selection method is used to correct for survivorship bias in the model. The derived result indicates that banks with higher efficiencies tend to record higher profit. Moreover, higher pure technological efficiency and scale efficiency have a positive effect on a bank's market share and concentration.