A qualitative cross-impact approach to find the key technology

This article presents a qualitative analysis method based on fuzzy relations for a cross-impact model designed for a technology impact assessment. The cross-impact knowledge is often uncertain or fuzzy when dealing with future events. Assessing the cross-impact relationships among future technologies creates a more uncertain or fuzzy situation because of the time and the uncertainty involved in evaluating future technologies. In addition, experts prefer to use linguistic terms or fuzzy values in their predictions. Thus a cross-impact matrix is represented as fuzzy relations on causal concepts. We therefore develop inference algorithms based on fuzzy relations and show a simple technology assessment example to illustrate this approach. This approach is useful in finding the key technology because it considers not only the direct impact but also the indirect impact.     

To Give Is to Receive

On June 21,1962,the Korea Trade- Investment Promotion Agency(KO- TRA)was established to promote trade and investment for the South Korean government and increased world coop- eration. We were lucky to interview Kwag Bok-Sun,the Director General of the Korea Trade Center(the Beijing Office of KOTRA),a wise and knowledgeable     

A Decomposed Negative Binomial Model of Structural Change: A Theoretical and Empirical Application to U.S. Agriculture

We developed a single-equation decomposed negative binomial regression model (NBRM) of the U.S. farm sector to simultaneously evaluate structural changes in the U.S. agricultural sector and the strength of several economic forces that influenced the changes in farm structure during the 1960–96 period. We found all these forces reinforced economic incentives to increase the size and decrease the number of small farms. Only agricultural programs and machinery prices countered these forces.
Nous avons élaboré un modèle de régression binomiale négative (NBRM) décomposéàéquation unique pour le secteur agricole des États-Unis afin d'évaluer simultanément les changements structurels de ce secteur ainsi que la puissance de plusieurs forces économiques qui ont influencé les changements de structure des exploitations agricoles au cours de la période 1960–96 . Nous avons conclu que toutes ces forces ont renforcé les stimulants économiques en faveur d'une augmentation de la taille des exploitations et d'une diminution du nombre de petites exploitations. Seuls les programmes agricoles et le prix de la machinerie ont contrecarré ces forces .     

Creating market anticipation: An exploratory examination of the effect of preannouncement behavior on a new product’s launch

Preannouncements are strategic marketing communications directed at market participants including investors, suppliers, distributors, and buyers. Most empirical literature focuses on antecedents influencing a firm’s preannouncement behavior and on outcomes related to deleterious responses by competitors. This study differs and follows the large body of extant research that examines preannouncing behavior as a deliberate marketing communication process aimed at influencing market participants in the firm’s favor. The authors develop and test a model of preannouncement behavior that affects the success of a new product launch through market anticipation, competitive equity, and new product development resources. The findings indicate that preannouncement behavior engenders new product success through its positive effect on market anticipation—a favorable industry-wide bias in advance of new product introduction—and emphasizes the use of preannouncements as business-to-business marketing communications aimed at influencing current and prospective supply chain partners in the firm’s favor. Kim Schatzel (schatzel@umd.umich.edu) (PhD, Michigan State University) is an assistant professor of marketing at the University of Michigan, Dearborn. Her business experience includes more than 20 years of corporate and new venture work including tenure as the founder and CEO of a multinational $250 million automotive components firm and three start-up technology-based companies. She is interested in the study of new product development, business-to-business marketing communications, and firm reputation issues. She has published articles in theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Business Research, and theJournal of Product Innovation Management. She is also highly committed to teaching excellence and has won several awards for undergraduate, graduate, and executive teaching. Roger Calantone (rogercal@msu.edu) holds the Eli Broad University Chair in Business at Michigan State University and is also the director of the Broad Information Technology Management Program (ITMP). He is interested in the study of new product innovation and technology decisions in industrial firms. Currently, his research is focused on new product decisions, industrial market segmentation, global logistics, and the use of neural network and autonomous learning models to valuate product components. He is the author of more than 200 refereed academic articles and proceedings and is coauthor of several books. His publications have appeared in journals such as theJournal of Marketing, the Journal of Marketing Research, Marketing Science, Management Science, Decision Sciences, and theStrategic Management Journal.     

The coupon-induced tax clientele effect in bond prices

A pricing model for default-free bonds under differentia! taxation of coupon income and capital gains is presented which explicitly considers coupon-induced tax clienteles. Subsequent analysis provides indirect evidence in support of the existence of the coupon-induced tax clientele effect, while direct evidence is provided by analyzing differences in marginal tax rates estimated across different coupon levels for sets of US Treasury bonds with the same maturity date. The results are also generally consistent with the traditional notion that marginal tax rates are inversely related to coupon levels.     

A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept

This paper suggests a technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process. This approach focuses primarily on the utilization of the information that has been skipped in conventional Delphi survey data. That is, through a simple statistic, the interrelationships among sequential technology developments can be extracted in a formal structure of a semi-Markov model from the original Delphi panel's estimates. A simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships. This technique provides a flexible and useful tool for R&D planners or project managers, especially in postanalysis of Delphi forecasting. To make good use of the approach, a computer-based interactive Delphi data analysis system (IDEAS) is implemented in IBM PC.     

Equal opportunity and poverty reduction: How should aid be allocated?

This paper analyzes a model of aid allocation equalizing the opportunity between recipient countries to reach a common poverty reduction goal. We propose a fair and efficient aid allocation based on a multicriteria principle. The model considers structural handicaps in recipient countries in terms of lack of human capital and economic vulnerability, their initial poverty, and the natural gap between the growth rate required to reach a development goal and the observed one. We show that our proposed aid allocation favors poor and vulnerable countries with our multicriteria principle. It substantially differs from the observed allocation. Analyses also shed light on the impact of the donors' aversion to the low natural growth gap in recipient countries on the optimal aid allocation and the marginal efficiency of aid.     

Cash Marketing Styles and Performance Persistence

Much agricultural economics research has been dedicated to determining the best time for producers to sell their commodities. Unlike this past research, we look at how producers actually sell commodities. The extent to which producers display an active or mechanical marketing style is measured using individual farmer sales. The activeness of a producer's marketing strategy is measured by how much the timing of their strategy varies from year to year. Results show no relationship between activeness and net prices received. Furthermore, the results show no evidence of performance persistence by individual producers.     

Future labor income growth and the cross-section of equity returns

This paper examines the equilibrium relation between future labor income growth and expected asset returns; it proposes revisions in the expectation of future labor income growth as a macroeconomic state variable and suggests a three-factor model, including a factor related to this variable, along with the consumption growth factor and the market factor. The proposed future labor income growth factor is positively associated with the Fama-French factors and subsumes their explanatory power in explaining the cross-section of stock returns. These results provide a possible economic explanation for the roles of the Fama-French factors: they are compensation for higher exposure to the risk related to changes in the value of human capital. This paper also compares the performance of the proposed three-factor model with other competing models and finds that the proposed model specification better captures cross-sectional variation in average returns than any of the competing asset pricing models considered.     

Macroeconomic risk and the cross-section of stock returns

We develop a conditional version of the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) using the conditioning variable from the cointegrating relation among macroeconomic variables (dividend yield, term spread, default spread, and short-term interest rate). Our conditioning variable has a strong power to predict market excess returns in the presence of competing predictive variables. In addition, our conditional CCAPM performs approximately as well as Fama and French’s (1993) three-factor model in explaining the cross-section of the Fama and French 25 size and book-to-market sorted portfolios. Our specification shows that value stocks are riskier than growth stocks in bad times, supporting the risk-based story.