Wage inflation and labour conflicts in the Netherlands : An empirical investigation using the co-integration approach

The ‘wage space’, which is defined as the sum of price inflation and labour productivity growth, has played a major role as an indicator of allowable wage increases in the post-war wage negotiations in the Netherlands. This paper shows that: (a) wages and the wage space are co-integrated; (b) the deviation between wages and the wage space may act as an error correction term in the wage equation when both variables are identified as I(2); and (c) political consensus and the threat of labour conflicts (rather than actual strike activity) may be identified as the ‘mechanism’ behind this error correction in the wage equation.     

Prudent expectations equilibrium in economies with uncertain delivery

In an economy with private information, we introduce the notion of objects of choice as lists of bundles out of which the market selects one for delivery. This leads to an extension of the model of Arrow–Debreu that is used to study trade ex ante with private state verification. Under the assumption that agents are prudent, equilibrium is characterized by the fact that agents consume bundles with the same utility in states that they do not distinguish. This is a weaker condition than the restriction of equal consumption imposed by Radner (Econometrica 36(1), 31–58, 1968), therefore, some no trade situations are avoided and the efficiency of trade increases.     

Easing the assessment of emerging technologies in technology observatories. Findings about patterns of dissemination of emerging technologies on the internet

This paper considers the Web as a big data container that can be used by Technology Observatories and administrations to track emerging issues and more specifically emerging technologies. It considers information that is available on the Internet for free from different sources, and proposes a framework that can be useful to characterise them and to detect patterns of dissemination. This framework is made up of 30 metrics obtained from different kinds of sources (general web, patents, scholars?…). Some of them are obtained directly as the number of hits retrieved by queries on a search engine, and other ones calculated by means of ratios. This paper contains the development of a complete case that utilises this framework to characterise emerging technologies included in the well-known Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, in this case the 2015 release¹ and to analyze patterns of dissemination of these technologies on the Internet.     

Selling to the moneyed masses

Over the past decade, the distribution of household incomes has shifted so much that a much larger proportion of consumers now earn significantly higher-than-average incomes--while still falling short of being truly rich. As a result, what used to be a no-man's-land for new product introductions has in many categories become an extremely profitable "new middle ground." How can marketers capitalize on this new territory? The key, say the authors, is to rethink the positioning and design of offerings and the ways they can be brought to market. Take, for instance, how Procter & Gamble redefined the positioning map for tooth-whitening solutions. A decade ago, dental centers were popularizing expensive bleaching techniques that put the price of a professionally brightened smile in the 400 dollars range. At the low end, consumers also had the choice of whitening toothpastes that cost anywhere from 2 dollars to 8 dollars. P&G wisely positioned itself between the two ends, successfully targeting the new mass market with its 35 dollars Whitestrips. In product categories where it's clear the middle ground has already been populated, it's important for companies to design or redesign offerings to compete. An example is the Polo shirt. How do you sell a man yet another one after he's bought every color he wants? Add some features, and call it a golf shirt. Here, marketers have introduced designs based on the concept of "occasional use" in order to stand out. Finally, companies wishing to reach the "almost rich" can change how they go to market. Perhaps no mass retailer has made a stronger bid for the mass affluent than Target Stores, which has pioneered a focus the company itself characterizes as upscale discount. The strategy has made Target an everyday shopping phenomenon among well-heeled urbanites and prosperous professionals.     

THE (IR)RELEVANCE OF THE NRU FOR POLICY MAKING: THE CASE OF DENMARK

We reconsider the central role of the natural rate of unemployment (NRU) in forming policy decisions. We show that the unemployment rate does not gravitate towards the NRU due to frictional growth, a phenomenon that encapsulates the interplay between lagged adjustment processes and growth in dynamic labour market systems. We choose Denmark as the focal point of our empirical analysis and find that the NRU explains only 33% of the unemployment variation, while frictional growth accounts for the remaining 67%. Therefore, our theoretical and empirical findings raise doubts as to whether the NRU should play such a key instrumental role in policy making.     

Valuing GM technologies using real options: the case of drought tolerant wheat in Australia

ABSTRACT

In this article we seek to estimate the value of a partially-developed crop technology from the perspective of the firm developing the technology. Firms need this value estimation to decide whether their technology will earn a sufficient return in the market to justify investing in it. However, determining the (ex-ante) value of the technology before it is commercialised is challenging as the technology is not yet in the market and hence the demand function has not yet been defined. An alternative valuation method is required. We use risk premiums, Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis and we demonstrate this combination of valuation tools on wheat that is currently being developed in Australia to be drought tolerant. The results indicate that this drought tolerant wheat variety is likely to be adopted by farmers in most regions and has a pre-commercialisation value that justifies continued investment in its development. We also identified South Australia as a region in which the new variety would not be sufficiently valuable to farmers to see them adopt it and we consider possible explanations for this outcome.     

Information on sellers and buyers characteristics: added value to explain price formation at primary fish markets in managed French scallop fisheries

The aim of this article is to explore, through a hedonic approach, the factors that might explain the price variability for the French-managed fishery of scallop at primary fish markets. In addition to factors classically identified in the current literature like intrinsic product characteristics or markets situation, the characteristics of operators are tested. The relationships of loyalty between sellers and buyers, and market assiduity are notably considered.     

Foreign aid preferences and perceptions in donor countries

We present original survey data on preferences for foreign aid in 24 donor countries from 2005 to 2008. On publicly-funded foreign aid (Official Development Assistance, or ODA), we find patterns that are consistent with a standard model of democratic policy formation, in which donations are treated as a pure public good. Controlling for perceptions of current ODA, we show that individual preferences for ODA are (i) negatively correlated with relative income within a country-year; and (ii) positively correlated with inequality at the country level. We extend the analysis to explain variation in the gap between desired aid and actual ODA, arguing that lobbying by high-income special interest groups can divert resources away from the median voter’s preferred level of aid. Consistent with this, we observe that ODA is significantly lower where policymakers are more susceptible to lobbying. Finally, we present a novel test of competing “crowding out” hypotheses. Self-reported private aid donations are negatively correlated with actual ODA, and positively correlated with perceived ODA. This finding is consistent with an emerging argument in the literature, whereby ODA crowds out private aid by enabling charities to forego fundraising activities and crowds in private aid through a signaling channel.