On Markov error‐correction models,with an application to stock prices and dividends

This paper considers Markov error‐correction (MEC) models in which deviations from the long‐run equilibrium are characterized by different rates of adjustment. To motivate our analysis and illustrate the various issues involved, our discussion is structured around the analysis of the long‐run properties of US stock prices and dividends. It is shown that the MEC model is flexible enough to account for situations where deviations from the long‐run equilibrium are nonstationary in one of the states of nature and allows us to test for such a possibility. An empirical specification procedure to establish the existence of MEC adjustment in practice is also presented. This is based on a multi‐step test procedure that exploits the differences between the global and local characteristics of systems with MEC adjustment. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transatlantic Trade-Offs in the Age of Balanced Budgets and European Monetary Union

We develop a model of monetary and fiscal policies appropriate for considering U.S.-European policy interactions in an era of near-balanced budgets and European monetary union. We study the determinants of policy trade-offs and incentives for central banks and governments across the Atlantic. Smaller, more open economies face more favorable trade-offs, since openness enhances policy effectiveness via the exchange-rate channel. Changes in Europe's monetary arrangements do not affect U.S. trade-offs, although they alter the trade-offs facing European policy-makers. Fiscal trade-offs depend crucially on the extent to which fiscal policy is distortionary. Changes in taxes and spending move both employment and inflation in the desired direction following a worldwide supply shock when spending is financed with distortionary taxes.     

Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model, which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for hierarchical and for Minnesota-type priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.     

Testing for the Presence of Financial Constraints in US Agricultural Cooperatives: An Investment Behaviour Approach

This study examines the presence of financial constraints in US agricultural cooperatives. We test the cooperative capital constraint hypothesis with a panel data econometric analysis of agricultural cooperatives’ investment behaviour. Regression results suggest that agricultural cooperatives’ capital expenditures are significantly affected by the availability of internal funds. Results also indicate that the sensitivity of investment to cash flow is correlated with cooperative structural characteristics.     

Business cycle measurement with some theory

A method to evaluate cyclical models not requiring knowledge of the DGP and the exact specification of the aggregate decision rules is proposed. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use some to identify structural shocks in the data and others to evaluate the class or contrast sub-models. The approach has good properties, even in small samples, and when the class of models is misspecified. The method is used to sort out the relevance of a certain friction (the presence of rule-of-thumb consumers) in a standard class of models.     

Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models

This paper proposes a contemporaneous-threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex-ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. A key feature of the model is that the transition function depends on all the parameters of the model as well as on the data. Since the mixing weights are also a function of the regime-specific noise covariance matrix, the model can account for contemporaneous regime-specific co-movements of the variables. The stability and distributional properties of the proposed model are discussed, as well as issues of estimation, testing and forecasting. The practical usefulness of the C-MSTAR model is illustrated by examining the relationship between US stock prices and interest rates.     

Form of Ownership and Financial Constraints:Panel Data Evidence From Flow of Funds and Investment Equations

This paper analyzes the effects of the form of ownership on the substitutability between internal and external sources of finance in Italy. In particular, we test whether financial constraints are more severe for independent firms compared to members of large national business groups and subsidiaries of foreign multinational corporations. The results obtained from flow of funds and investment equations estimated for a panel of Italian companies imply that independent firms face more severe financial constraints. In fact, not only members of national groups and subsidiaries of multinational corporations find it easier to substitute cash flow with external finance when the former falls but they do not display excess sensitivity to cash flow and debt in their investment decisions.     

Once NEET,always NEET? A synthetic panel approach to analyze the Moroccan labor market

In many regions of the world, the persistent, and growing, proportion of young people who are currently Not in Employment, Education or Training—a group increasingly referred to as NEET—is of global concern. This is no less true of Morocco: about 30% of the Moroccan population between age 15 and 24 are currently NEET. Drawing from various rounds of Moroccan Labor Force Surveys, this paper contributes to understanding the complex dynamics of labor markets in developing countries. First, it identifies the socioeconomic determinants of Morocco's NEETs. Second, employing a synthetic panel (SP) methodology in the context of labor market analysis, the paper describes how the condition of NEETs changes over time. One striking, and worrisome, pattern that emerges from the 2010 SP data is that, even after 8 years, a majority of the NEETs remained outside either the labor market or education, with very little chance of moving out of their situation. Their chronic stagnancy confirms the powerful effect that initial conditions have on determining young people's future outcomes. It also highlights the absence of corrective mechanisms and policy interventions within the Moroccan political economy landscape that could help to change NEETs' outcomes along the line.     

I do not own a car any more: An analysis of possessions’ disposal and changes in consumers’ identities

This research aims to understand the process of cars' disposal, its context, its influences and its impacts on the meanings for consumers and their identities, as well as the new behaviours of these consumers when living without their car(s). We conducted, analysed and interpreted 20 in‐depth interviews with consumers that had previously owned at least one car and had no financial reasons for disposing of their car(s), but had decided to do it, and started to live without them, adopting alternative methods of transportation. Our findings show that these consumers faced a complicated process regarding the disposal of their car(s) but, due to the changes in their circumstances, they re‐signified relevant concepts that were connected to the ownership of a car: Their perception of freedom, comfort, safety and status changed during and after the disposal of their car(s). We also noticed that there were implications in terms of changes in their attitudes and behaviour as both citizens and consumers. As a contribution to the literature, our findings indicate that the re‐signifying of concepts related to possession of the object as well as changes in attitudes and behaviours that consumers undergo in the postdisposal stage, must be included in the model proposed for evaluating consumer behaviour in product disposal.     

Production smoothing, firms' heterogeneity, and financial constraints: evidence from a panel of UK firms

In this paper we provide an empirical analysis of heterogeneityin firms' inventory behavior, using a panel of UK manufacturingfirms. We first investigate how the relative variance of productionand sales differs across firms. We then use variants of thelinear quadratic inventory model in order to analyze potentialheterogeneity in firms' incentives to smooth production. Theresults suggest that incentives to smooth production are notprevalent This conclusion also holds when firms are partitionedaccording to whether they are more or leu likely to face finanrialconstraints.