The causality between FDI and sector-specific production in Turkey: evidence from threshold cointegration with regime shifts

This article considers bidirectional nonlinear cointegration relation between FDI and industrial output in Turkey. The data cover the monthly period 2005:1–2013:10 for the time series of total industrial production, 36 sub-industrial sectors’ production and FDI. Following nonlinear threshold cointegration and VECMs, the article yields that (i) total industrial production and nine sub-industrial productions have positive long-run impact on FDI with significant error corrections, (ii) six sub-industrial productions have short-term influence on FDI, (iii) FDI has long-run positive impulse on total industrial production and nine sub-industrial productions with some significant error corrections and (iv) FDI affects four sub-industrial productions in the short run as well as in the long run. The results of VECMs from (i) also reveal that the all short-term adjustment parameters are found significant and powerful in 10 typical regimes (Regime-1s) and in 5 extreme regimes (Regime-2s). Finally, the outcome of VECMs from (iii) yields that short-term adjustment parameters are found significant and powerful in two typical regimes and in four extreme regimes. Eventually, considering FDI’s positive impact in the short and long run, this article suggests that policymakers promote specifically the FDI inflows to the sectors of intermediate goods, manufacture of beverages, manufacture of rubber and plastic and manufacture of other nonmetallic mineral products.     

A driver focused truck crash prediction model

This paper advances a driver focused truck crash prediction model. The model investigates the contribution of driver factors on the number of state reportable crashes in which the driver was involved. The findings suggest that the following factors are significantly related to the likelihood of a crash occurrence: driver age, weight, height, gender, and employment stability as well as previous driver and vehicle violations and past crashes. The results have significance regarding the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration imperative to improve safety.     

Frauen in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung

Ein einheitlicher Rentenbeitrag trotz l?ngerer Lebenserwartung der Frauen, der Ausbau der Kindererziehungszeiten und die Hinterbliebenenrenten stellen faktische Begünstigungen von Frauen in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung dar. Wie sollten derartige Umverteilungen ordnungspolitisch korrekt finanziert werden? W?hrend Kindererziehungs- und Hinterbliebenenleistungen (zumindest teilweise) aus Steuermitteln finanziert werden, gilt dies bislang nicht für den Transfer zugunsten der Frauen aufgrund von durchschnittlich l?ngeren Rentenlaufzeiten. Die Autoren pl?dieren grunds?tzlich für eine Mischfinanzierung der Kosten.     

Board gender quotas and outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from France

We show that board gender quota laws reduce the propensity of French firms to undertake outward foreign direct investment. For this, we use firm-level data for the period 2007 to 2015 and a difference-in-difference approach. The exogenous increase in the share of women directors decreases the share of foreign subsidiaries by 7 percentage points when the share of women directors is at its highest. The share of foreign subsidiaries is affected by the decrease in probability of having a foreign subsidiary, which indicates disinvestment. The effects on outward foreign direct investment we detect are strongest for the poorly managed firms, pointing to tough managerial monitoring by gender diverse boards as the driving force behind results.     

Government spending and the exchange rate

This paper investigates the effects of govenment spending on real and nominal exchange rates within the context of an open economy equilibrium rational expectations model. The model predicts that both real and nominal exchange rates appreciate in response to anticipated and unanticipated increases in government spending. Empirical evidence from Germany for the period 1975:2–1989:4 provides some weak support for the predictions of the model.     

Average marginal tax rates in the UK economy

Using a known methodology, this paper calculates the average tax rate (ATR) and three different average marginal tax rate (AMTR) measures for the UK. The three different AMTR measures are greater than the ATR in the same year because of the progressive tax system in the UK. Barro's AMTR measure weighted by total income is greater than Barro's AMTR measure weighted by number of returns because of the unequal distribution of income, and Barro's AMTR measure weighted by total income exceeds Seater's AMTR measure because total income before tax in Seater's AMTR measure is greater than total income after tax in Barro's AMTR measure.