Consumer credit-risk models via machine-learning algorithms

We apply machine-learning techniques to construct nonlinear nonparametric forecasting models of consumer credit risk. By combining customer transactions and credit bureau data from January 2005 to April 2009 for a sample of a major commercial bank’s customers, we are able to construct out-of-sample forecasts that significantly improve the classification rates of credit-card-holder delinquencies and defaults, with linear regression R²’s of forecasted/realized delinquencies of 85%. Using conservative assumptions for the costs and benefits of cutting credit lines based on machine-learning forecasts, we estimate the cost savings to range from 6% to 25% of total losses. Moreover, the time-series patterns of estimated delinquency rates from this model over the course of the recent financial crisis suggest that aggregated consumer credit-risk analytics may have important applications in forecasting systemic risk.     

The Effects of Consumer-Directed Health Plans on Health Care Spending

We use unique data from an insurer that exclusively offers high-deductible, "consumer-directed" health plans to identify the effect of plan features, notably employer contributions to the spending account, on health care spending. Our results show that the marginal dollar contributed by the employer to the spending account is entirely spent on outpatient and pharmacy services. In contrast, out-of-pocket spending was not responsive to the amount the employer contributes to the spending account. Our results represent the first plausibly causal estimates of the components of consumer-driven health plans on health spending. The magnitudes of the effects suggest important health care spending consequences to higher employer contributions to spending accounts. Our findings are most directly relevant to health reimbursement arrangement plan designs, though our results are still of value to health savings account plan designs.     

The strategic and cultural legitimacy of HR professionalization in Hong Kong

In Hong Kong, human resources (HR) practice has reached a point of professionalization not yet apparent in other parts of China creating opportunities for best practice diffusion across rapidly developing cities, provinces, and regions. The aim of this paper is to ascertain the strategic and cultural legitimacy of human resource management (HRM) in Hong Kong from the perspective of the occupation’s status as an emerging profession. Combining established theory on professions with documented insights from normative associational ideals, this paper derives four major sources of HR professionalization, which it entitles strategy, communication, administration, and discipline. Assuming that tasks performed by the most senior, qualified and experienced practitioners hold greatest empirical sway over the prospect of occupational association, this study finds that a combination of strategic and communication practices emerge as the two most likely routes to HR professionalization. Based on survey responses from a representative sample of 172 certified practitioners, the findings support the notion of HR as a strategic asset, raising important implications for the professional status of the occupation within an Asian management context.     

The effect of earnings surprises on information asymmetry

We examine the effect of earnings surprises on changes in information asymmetry. We hypothesize and find that asymmetry is lower (higher) in the quarter following positive (negative) earnings surprises compared to firms that meet the consensus analyst earnings forecast. The relations between earnings surprises and information asymmetry are stronger when the surprises are more likely to capture investors’ attention. Examining the source of these changes, we show that decreased information search activities is the most important factor for asymmetry declining after positive surprises; for negative surprises, decreased uninformed trading plays a dominant role increasing asymmetry.     

What explains recent changes in international monetary policy attitudes toward inflation? Evidence from developed countries

This paper identifies source(s) contributing to the recent international shift in monetary policy attitudes toward inflation. Data from 18 developed countries suggests that this shift is connected to the universal increase in policy responses to economic openness in the 1990s.     

Are students customers? Tourism and hospitality students’ evaluation of their higher education experience

ABSTRACT

Research has suggested that higher education students assume multiple roles during their studies. Moreover, the student-as-customer model has been discussed for years and needs more in-depth discussions than other roles. Few studies have investigated education experiences from this perspective. This research contains two studies. Study one investigates faculty members’ perceptions on students’ roles in higher education and found students should not be considered purely as customers. Other roles were found. Study two investigates students’ perception of their roles in university education and how the education experiences influence their satisfaction towards university choice. A majority of the students see themselves as the “recipient of knowledge”. The six dimensions of higher education experience include “student-centred service” (SCS), “diversity and global citizenship” (DGC), “coproduction of learning experience”, “reliance on teachers” (ROT), “responsibility”, and “whole person development” (WPL). SCS, DGC, ROT, and WPL were found to have significant impact on student satisfaction.     

Motivations and perceived value of volunteer tourists from Hong Kong

This study examines the motivational factors and perceived value of Hong Kong volunteer tourists. The results of a focus group and in-depth interviews reveal five main motives for travelers to partake in volunteer trips: cultural immersion and interaction with the local people; desire to give back and show love and concern; a shared experience with family members and an educational opportunity for children; religious involvement; and escape from everyday life. The perceived value of these volunteer travelers includes personal growth and development, relationship enhancement, and change in perspective on life. The factors influencing their future decision to participate in volunteer tourism include time, financial ability, safety and health issues, arrangements and scale of the tour, and reputation of the organizer.     

Does the look matter? The impact of casino servicescape on gaming customer satisfaction,intention to revisit,and desire to stay

Despite huge investment made by casinos on their physical structures, little has been know if physical environment actually affects psychological responses of gaming customers. This paper explores how dimensions of servicescape influence customer satisfaction and behavioral intentions in the casino environment. Using Bitner's model of physical surroundings, we hypothesized how ambience, navigation, seating comfort, interior decor, and cleanliness affected cognitive and affective satisfaction of gaming customers. We further proposed that gaming customer satisfaction would affect their desire to stay and intention to revisit. Data from 513 gaming customers of Macau offered support to most of our hypotheses. Implications for research and managerial practices were also discussed.     

与狮同行

参与一年一度的Cannes Lions戛纳国际广告节。是每一位广告人难得的经验。今年有机会置身其中,最兴奋的,就是有幸上台亲手接过金狮子的荣誉。回顾今次行程。获益良多．能够一次观赏到来自世界各地的出色作品．感觉就像众多甜品放在面前,琳琅满目,每件作品也想慢慢解馋,慢慢消化,另一方面。却受时间所限。怕过分享受．会错过很多精彩作品。当然,观赏之余,亦提供一个与来自其他地区的广告人交流的机会。了解多一点,眼界与思维也国际化起来。所以,今次绝对是全方位大考验。挑战接收力、消化力和体力。