New Evidence on Optimal Asset Allocation

Brocato and Steed (1998) showed that portfolio rebalancing based on NBER business cycle turning points substantially improves in‐sample Markowitz efficiency. In a similar vein, we investigate potential improvements from rebalancing based on turning points in the monetary cycle. We find that the monetary cycle has greater influence than the business cycle on the variance/covariance structure of multiple asset classes. Furthermore, we find substantial improvements in in‐sample efficiency beyond a buy‐and‐hold strategy and the business‐cycle approach. Importantly, our indicator of monetary cycle turning points has a practical advantage over NBER business cycle turning points, in that it relies only on ex ante information. In out‐of‐sample tests, we continue to find superior portfolio performance after transactions costs using the monetary cycle to time portfolio rebalancing.     

Leadership and gender in groups: An experiment

We conduct a laboratory experiment to study gender differences in leadership. We strip the concept of leadership down to its most basic elements. Questions of style and evaluations of a leader based on style of leadership adopted are made irrelevant. Our leader is an average player who is distinguished merely by occupying the leadership position. Legitimacy is conferred on the leader by the special information possessed. Followers voluntarily choose whether or not to follow the better‐informed leader. The effectiveness of the leader is reduced to two simple factors: is the leader willing or not to voluntarily place him/herself in a vulnerable position to achieve an outcome beneficial to both the leader and his/her followers? Do followers trust their leaders to make the right choice? We provide experimental evidence that female leaders and followers are more cooperative than the males in most circumstances. Female leaders show a hesitation to lead in mixed‐gender environments with gender signalling in circumstances where followers' refusal to follow can significantly hurt them. The behaviour of the followers is the same toward the leaders regardless of their gender.     

The relevance of alternative paradigms as guidelines for consumer policy and organized consumer action

Within the context of a social systems approach, the author first presents a typology of consumer problems and consumer policies.Consumer problems are characterized at five levels as functional or structural. Functional problems can be solved by policies directed at the individual consumer, groups of consumers, or individual firms. Structural problems can be solved by policies directed at the general framework within which consumers make their decisions.Three paradigms are then presented which — each in a different way — highlight the social and political influence of consumers, thus providing alternative rationales for solving functional and structural problems.Finally, the main results of an empirical study are presented, showing how the three paradigms are used as guidelines for organized consumer action in Denmark. The author concludes that only two of the three paradigms should — in a complementary fashion — be considered relevant guidelines for consumer action.

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Die Bedeutung alternativer Paradigmata als Leitlinien für Verbraucherpolitik und kollektive Verbraucheraktionen

Zusammenfassung Der Beitrag faßt Verbraucherprobleme als Einschränkungen der Bedürfnisbefriedigung von Konsumenten vor, während und nach dem Kauf auf und beginnt mit einer Typologie von Verbraucherproblemen, die in erster Linie funktionelle und strukturelle Probleme unterscheidet. Funktionelle Probleme entstehen durch Informationsmängel oder durch Störungen in der Kommunikation zwischen Konsumenten und Produzenten, können sich aber auch aus bestimmten Marketingpraktiken der Anbieter ergeben. Solche Probleme können durch Maßnahmen gelöst werden, die sich an einzelne Konsumenten, Gruppen von Konsumenten oder an einzelne Firmen richten. Strukturelle Probleme werden durch Bedingungen hervorgerufen, an die sich Konsumenten kurzfristig anpassen müssen. Im Unterschied zu funktionellen Problemen sind sie eher genereller Natur. Sie können durch Maßnahmen gelöst werden, die sich an ganze Branchen, an Verbände, Arbeitnehmerorganisationen oder an politisch Tätige wenden, und sind in der Regel das Ergebnis kollektiver Entscheidungsprozesse oder kollektiven Handelns der Konsumenten.Zur Beurteilung der Notwendigkeit verbraucherpolitischer Maßnahmen bietet die einschlägige Literatur drei verschiedene Grundpositionen an, nämlich erstens das Paradigma der verbraucherkontrollierten Produktion (dieses Paradigma kann Verbraucherpolitik nicht rechtfertigen und muß in einer Politik des laissez-faire die beste Lösung von Verbraucherproblemen sehen), zweitens das Paradigma der Interdependenz von Konsum und Produktion (es liefert einige Begründungen für verbraucherpolitische Maßnahmen vor allem zur Überwindung von Informationslücken und zur Marktpflege) und schließlich das Paradigma des produzentenkontrollierten Verbrauchs (es rechtfertigt insbesondere verbraucherpolitische Maßnahmen, die sich mit solchen Verbraucherproblemen beschäftigen, deren Lösung nicht im Produzenten-Interesse liegt).Eine Studie des Autors in Dänemark zeigt, daß die Verbraucherbewegung dieses Landes vorrangig vom Paradigma der Interdependenz von Konsum und Produktion geleitet wird und daß die Resourcen vorrangig zur Lösung funktioneller Probleme verwendet werden. Wesentliche Schlußfolgerung des Autors ist, daß das Paradigma des produzentenkontrollierten Verbrauchs ebenso als Leitlinie herangezogen werden sollte. Die beiden Paradigmata schließen sich nicht gegeneinander aus, sondern sollten als wechselseitige Ergänzung aufgefaßt werden.

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Hans Rask Jensen is Associate Professor of Marketing, Sønderborg School of Economics and Business Administration, Grundtvigs Allé 100, DK-6400 Sønderborg, Denmark.     

Technical efficiency,herd size,and exit intentions in U.S. dairy farms

The U.S. dairy industry has seen major restructuring in recent decades. A sharp decline in the number of U.S. dairy farms and an increase in average herd sizes have accompanied exits, which have been concentrated among smaller herds. Given that more productive farms are better positioned to increase operation size and to continue operation, we hypothesize that the more technically efficient farms are better able to expand and also have stronger incentives to continue production. Using data from the USDA's 2010 ARMS Phase III, Dairy Production Practices and Costs and Returns Report, we estimate technical efficiency using stochastic production frontier analysis with endogenous inputs. The efficiency estimate is then incorporated into the analysis of exit intention and herd size. The results confirm our hypotheses that smaller and less efficient farms are more likely to exit and that more efficient dairy farms tend to expand herd size. Moreover, farms without successors but with older and more educated operators are more likely to exit.     

The Farm Credit System as a Government-Sponsored Enterprise

This article examines the impact of government-sponsored enterprise status for the Farm Credit System on allocative efficiency in agricultural credit markets. The Farm Credit System was established originally to overcome market failures in these markets and to provide long-term funding at rates lower than private credit sources. Using a supply and demand model and an options model, the impact of subsidized interest rates is discussed. My results show that the default risk premium in interest rates is transferred from agricultural borrowers to taxpayers. There is evidence of deadweight losses and market distortions due to government-sponsored enterprise status for the Farm Credit System.     

Contract Type and the Cost of Provision: Evidence from Maintenance Service Contracts*

More than half a billion dollars are spent each year on the maintenance of Australia's urban water and sewerage networks. Expenditure is governed through a mix of in‐house and outsourced maintenance service contracts. We re‐examine issues relating to the relationship between the cost of maintenance service provision and the type of contract used. We take advantage of the fact that water retailers in Melbourne use a mix of contract types – including fixed‐price (FP) and cost‐plus (C+) contracts – for the provision of water and sewerage network maintenance services. Our results suggest that the C+ contract results in substantial savings.