DOES POPULATION AGEING PROMOTE FASTER ECONOMIC GROWTH?

Can divergent demographic trends account for differences in per capita output across countries? We address this question by offering evidence that the process of population ageing is positively and significantly related to cross‐country economic performance. We define and estimate the effect of demographic change in two ways. First, a growing cohort of working age persons (15–64) as a share of the total population is found to have a large positive effect on GDP per capita. Second, an increase in the number of prime age persons (35–54) relative to the younger working age population (15–34) is found to have a positive but curvilinear effect with respect to per capita GDP. We find that changes in per capita GDP peak when the ratio of the prime‐to‐younger age population reaches an optimum of prime age workers for every younger aged worker. Beyond or below this optimal ratio, per capita output is lowered.     

Technical change: It should be positive and make sense!

We present the results of eight models that differ with respect to the time behavior of technical inefficiency and the presence of country heterogeneity. When taken into account, heterogeneity raises average technical change estimates, however technical progress rankings become counter-intuitive.     

Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries—A re-examination

This paper re-examines the relationship between trade intensity and business cycle synchronization for 21 OECD countries in the period 1970-2003. Instead of using instrumental variables, we estimate a multivariate model including variables capturing specialization and similarity of economic policies. We confirm that trade intensity affects synchronization, but the effect is much smaller than previously reported. Other factors, like specialization and convergence in monetary and fiscal policies, have a similar impact on business cycle synchronization as trade intensity. The effect of trade on synchronization is not driven by outliers. However, the impact of trade on synchronization is not robust across deciles.     

Evaluating the economy embedded in the Brazilian ethanol–gasoline flex-fuel car: a Real Options approach

The introduction of the flex-fuel cars in the Brazilian market in 2003 changed considerably the consumer decision-making process. Prior to this date, it was necessary to choose the automobile type only by gasoline or by ethanol fuel; today it is possible to choose a car type with both fuel options. This flexibility generates economic advantages for his owner, but what are the financial benefits of a flex-fuel car in comparison with a car using only gasoline? Geographically, where is the owner of the benefits from this flexibility located? This article presents an empirical application of the Real Options Theory in the analysis of the flex-fuel car option for five geographic Brazilian regions: Northern, Northeastern, Central-Western, Southeastern and Southern. The regional price differences as well as the consumer preferences of these regions were met. For this purpose, historical fuel prices were considered stochastic and following a Mean Reverting Stochastic process. The prediction and option values were generated by a Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that the option embedded on the Brazilian flex-fuel car adds considerable value to the owner in all regions and car models considered, with the Southeastern Region receiving most benefits by the flex option.     

The effect of social security,health, demography and technology on retirement

This article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of the elderly and investigates the factors that may account for the increase in retirement in the second half of the last century. We develop a lifecycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy – which became much more generous – and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement.     

Supply chain risk analysis: a shipbuilding industry case

A lack of empirical studies on Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) is observed, especially in the industries of large projects. Therefore, this paper conducts a risk analysis on the Brazilian Shipbuilding Industry by generating an initial risk profile. A panel was conducted with executives from major shipyards, and the primary risks were identified, assessed, and evaluated. Findings corroborate the academic literature, reinforcing that companies recognise the importance of SCRM, but the concept is incipient and far from being successfully implemented in real life. Despite the fact that the shipyards identified important risks, the focus was on internal factors. Because the industry was exposed to risks from the external environment, no risk mitigation actions existed, resulting in the bankruptcy of many shipbuilders. This research is an initial step toward investigating SCRM techniques, offering academics a novel empirical approach that can serve as a systematic risk management tool for supply chain planning.     

Augmenting the eye of the beholder: exploring the strategic potential of augmented reality to enhance online service experiences

Driven by the proliferation of augmented reality (AR) technologies, many firms are pursuing a strategy of service augmentation to enhance customers’ online service experiences. Drawing on situated cognition theory, the authors show that AR-based service augmentation enhances customer value perceptions by simultaneously providing simulated physical control and environmental embedding. The resulting authentic situated experience, manifested in a feeling of spatial presence, functions as a mediator and also predicts customer decision comfort. Furthermore, the effect of spatial presence on utilitarian value perceptions is greater for customers who are disposed toward verbal rather than visual information processing, and the positive effect on decision comfort is attenuated by customers’ privacy concerns.     

Inequality of Opportunity in Brazil: A Corrigendum

This note acknowledges and corrects a programming error in our paper “Inequality of Opportunity in Brazil” (Review of Income and Wealth, 53(4), 585–618, 2007). Once the error is corrected, our bounds approach to the identification of individual model parameters in the presence of omitted variable biases is much less useful than indicated in the original paper. In the specific context of the measurement of inequality of opportunity, this implies that the decomposition of overall inequality of opportunity into direct and indirect effects is not reliable. However, the parametric approach introduced in our paper remains useful for obtaining a lower‐bound estimate of overall ex‐ante inequality of opportunity, as proposed by Ferreira and Gignoux (2011).     

The Myth of Fair Prices: A Graphical Analysis

The issues of fair trade and in particular fair price policies, have been neglected in most international trade courses. The authors show how the latter can be explained to undergraduate students applying the simple graphical methods normally used in general equilibrium trade theory. They show that fair pricing strategies can be looked upon as a suboptimal device for redistributing the gains from trade as compared with a transfer of funds.