Bayesian Graphical Models for STructural Vector Autoregressive Processes

This paper proposes a Bayesian, graph‐based approach to identification in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In our Bayesian graphical VAR (BGVAR) model, the contemporaneous and temporal causal structures of the structural VAR model are represented by two different graphs. We also provide an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate jointly the two causal structures and the parameters of the reduced‐form VAR model. The BGVAR approach is shown to be quite effective in dealing with model identification and selection in multivariate time series of moderate dimension, as those considered in the economic literature. In the macroeconomic application the BGVAR identifies the relevant structural relationships among 20 US economic variables, thus providing a useful tool for policy analysis. The financial application contributes to the recent econometric literature on financial interconnectedness. The BGVAR approach provides evidence of a strong unidirectional linkage from financial to non‐financial super‐sectors during the 2007–2009 financial crisis and a strong bidirectional linkage between the two sectors during the 2010–2013 European sovereign debt crisis. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Zur Problematik des „Volkseinkommens“ und seiner statistischen Berechnung

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Alan Greenspan and Adrian Wooldridge: Capitalism in America: A history

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management -     

Regulation, Deregulation, and Free Market: The Food Manufacturing Industry in Zimbabwe

This article investigates the relationship among environment, strategy, and organizational characteristics and performance in an industry at various stages of deregulation in a developing economy. The focus of the study is organizational adaptation under different market conditions. The article seeks to establish the contingency perspective of adaptation. The research findings suggest that once an organization has chosen its strategy, organizational characteristics must be consistent with that strategy irrespective of the environment in which the organization operates. The results, with respect to organizational variables, indicate that the environment is neither a quasi-moderator nor a homologizer. However, with respect to organizational performance, the environment influences the form of the strategy–performance relationship hence it is a quasi-moderator. The article then discusses the implications of these findings for managers and policy makers within the context of a developing economy and for academic research in general.     

Regulating collateral-requirements when markets are incomplete

In this paper we examine the effects of default and collateral on risk sharing. We assume that there is a large set of assets which all promise a risk less payoff but which distinguish themselves by their collateral requirements. In equilibrium agents default, the assets have different payoffs, and there are as many linearly independent assets available for trade as there are states of the world. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for equilibria to be Pareto-efficient in the presence of uncertainty. We explore some examples for which the collateral equilibrium allocation is identical to the Arrow–Debreu allocation, either when agents have a high preference for the durable good, or when the endowment distribution of the durable good is relatively homogeneous. We examine a series of examples to understand which collateral-levels prevail in equilibrium and under which conditions there is scope for regulating margin-requirements, that is, restricting the sets of tradable assets through government intervention. In these examples equilibrium is always sub-optimal but regulation never leads to a Pareto-improvement. While the competitive equilibria are constrained efficient, there do exist regulations which make large groups of agents in the economy better off. These regulations typically restrict all trades to take place in the low-collateral loans and benefit the poor and the rich agents in the economy through their effects on the equilibrium interest rate and the equilibrium prices of the durable goods.     

Rationality in supplier selection decisions: The effect of the buyer's national task environment

Our study sheds light on two fundamental questions in supply management: First, does adherence to highly rational decision processes help buyers make better supplier selection decisions? Second, is the influence of procedural rationality on decision effectiveness moderated by buyers’ (differently dynamic) task environments? We empirically test these questions using a sample of 150 supplier selection decisions taken in China and 150 decisions taken in Germany, countries that expose buyers to dynamic decision environments and stable decision environments, respectively. Our findings suggest that the influence of decision process rationality is stable across decision makers’ task environments. Both in China and in Germany, such process rationality is positively related with higher decision quality, and no significant differences in relationship strengths emerge between the two country samples.     

Opportunity,fair process and relationship value: career development as a driver of proactive work behaviour

In line with recent findings from organisational justice theory, we hypothesised that employee proactive behaviour and careerist orientation is predicted by the interplay of perceived favourability of career development opportunities, the perceived fairness of the procedures used to decide them, and employee organisational commitment. Employees (N = 325) of a large financial services organisation responded to a self‐completion questionnaire. As predicted, when career development opportunities were viewed unfavourably, perceived procedural justice was significantly and positively related to individual proactive behaviour and significantly and negatively related to careerist orientation but only when organisational commitment was high. It appears that high procedural justice may only ‘offset’ the negative effects of unfavourable career development opportunities when employees identify with, and are committed to, their organisation. Further support is presented for a relational, rather than instrumental, model of procedural justice when reflecting on employee reactions to their employers’ policies and decision‐making. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.