Shaping long-run expectations in problems of coordination

When far-sighted agents may adjust their behavior only gradually, the issue of equilibrium selection becomes one of tension between history and expectations. This paper analyzes whether, in this context, a government policy maker may intervene successfully and redirect expectations away from the inertia of undesired history. The possibilities and limitations of such an approach to `expectation management' are studied within a game-theoretic framework which involves both the government and the population.     

Competitive equilibrium hyperinflation under rational expectations

This paper shows that a competitive equilibrium model, where a representative agent maximizes welfare, expectations are rational and markets are in equilibrium can account for several hyperinflation stylized facts. The theory is built by combining two hypotheses, namely, a fiscal crisis that requires printing money to finance an increasing public deficit and a predicted change in an unsustainable fiscal regime.We thank an anonymous referee for very helpful comments. A. B. Cunha acknowledges financial support from the Brazilian Council of Science and Technology (CNPq).     

On the comparison of Schwartz and Smith’s two- and three-factor models on commodity prices

Since Schwartz and Smith (2000) published their study on two-factor model on commodity prices, many studies have used this model and others have extended it. The authors also proposed the three-factor model due to the poor fitting of the two-factor one on long-term futures prices. At that time the authors had only long-term prices from a private source to calibrate, test and compare these models. No public data on long-term future contracts were available. On the other hand, during the last decade the commodity prices soared as did the liquidity of long-term contracts. This means that the interest of the agents in the management of their risk on long-term positions increased the same way and this is the motivation for this study. In this article, we revisit the comparison between two- and three-factor models using public data for short- and long-term contracts (we use up to the 67-month-ahead contract). We also provide a detailed derivation of the three-factor model differently from that of the original article. Following the original article of Schwartz and Smith, we used oil futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange to calibrate the model. The results show a better fit of the three-factor model for the term structure of prices and volatilities mainly for long maturities contracts, while the two-factor model in most portions of the curve underestimates the risk premiums. This type of analysis is important not only for daily agents negotiating the physical commodities through long-term contracts but also for investment decisions on development of real projects.     

Servant Leadership,Proactive Work Behavior,and Performance Overall Rating: Testing a Multilevel Model of Moderated Mediation

ABSTRACT

Purpose: The goal of this paper is to investigate whether salesperson proactive behavior mediates the relationship between sales manager servant leadership and salesperson overall performance rating by the sales manager. Moreover, it examines whether salesperson customer orientation and political skill moderate the sales manager servant leadership ? salesperson proactive behavior ─ salesperson overall performance. Design/methodology/approach: Empirical analysis is based on dyadic data from 181 industrial salespeople and their sales managers in a range of different industries (including both manufacturing and service industries). To analyze the multilevel moderated mediation process, this investigation uses Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling (MSEM). Findings: Sales manager servant leadership was positively related to salespeople overall performance rating through their proactive behavior except when their customer orientation was low. Moreover, this relationship between sales manager servant leadership and overall performance rating through proactive work behavior was stronger the greater the salespeople consumer orientation and political skill. Research implications: The study suggests that sales manager servant leadership is indirectly related to salesperson overall performance rating through salesperson proactive behavior. The findings also support subsequent research on salesperson values, skills, and behaviors as moderators in the servant leadership – proactive behavior – overall performance rating relationship. Understanding how these salesperson factors interact with sales management leadership to produce organizational outcomes (e.g., stress, engagement, organizational commitment) are questions that sales researchers may wish to pursue via further study. Practical implications: Sales managers should employ servant leadership to stimulate salespeople proactive work behavior. This study clearly indicates the salespeople need to adopt customer orientation and to have political skill. Hence, sales managers need to try to improve the customer orientation and the political skill of their salespeople through selection procedures or training programs. Originality/value: The relationship between sales manager servant leadership and salesperson overall performance through proactive work behavior has not been addressed and tested in the literature to date.     

Investment-specific technical progress,capital obsolescence and job creation

This paper shows that faster disembodied technological progress – if it is investment-specific – might reduce job creation because the obsolescence cost of capital increases, which reduces the net return of a job. This effect could be called the obsolescence effect. It is also shown that the increase in the rate of decline of the U.S. relative price of investment – which can be used as a proxy for the rate of investment-specific technical progress – may have increased the obsolescence costs of capital, which might account for the observed fall in U.S. vacancy–unemployment ratios and job finding rates after the mid-seventies.     

A delay estimation technique for single and double-track railroads

To route and schedule trains over a large complex network can be computationally intensive. One way to reduce complexity could be to “aggregate” suitable sections of a network. In this paper, we present a simulation-based technique to generate delay estimates over track segments as a function of traffic conditions, as well as network topology. We test our technique by comparing the delay estimates obtained for a network in Los Angeles with the delays obtained from the simulation model developed by Lu et al. [Lu, Q., Dessouky, M.M., Leachman, R.C., 2004. Modeling of train movements through complex networks. ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation 14, 48–75], which has been shown to be representative of the real-world delay values. Railway dispatchers could route and schedule freight trains over large networks by using our technique to estimate delay across aggregated network sections.     

The Relationship Between Spiritual Well-Being and Ethical Orientations in Decision Making: An Empirical Study with Business Executives in Australia

The purpose of this study was to determine the applicability of Buddhist practices in today’s workplaces. The findings were supported by interviews with Buddhist masters and Buddhist business practitioners, as well as literature review, through phenomenological analysis. As a means of presenting the main reasons why Buddhist practices should be considered in contemporary workplaces, a SWOT analysis is presented. In this analysis, a number of strengths for using Buddhist practices in workplaces are listed such as pro-scientific, greater personal responsibility, and healthy detachment, while potential weaknesses such as non-harming, equanimity, and no competition are also reviewed. Both the strengths and the weaknesses could be listed in reverse if applied to a different extent. Among the opportunities were issues such as re-educating the world of business, enhancing personal ownership and a healthier society, while the threats comprised issues such as creating different imbalances, disinterest, and stationary development.     

Unemployment insurance with a hidden labor market

We consider the problem of optimal unemployment insurance (UI) in a repeated moral hazard framework. Unlike existing literature, unemployed individuals can secretly participate in a hidden labor market. This extension modifies the standard problem in three dimensions. First, it imposes an endogenous lower bound for the lifetime utility that a contract can deliver. Second, it breaks the identity between unemployment payments and consumption. And third, it hardens the encouragement of search effort. The optimal unemployment insurance system in an economy with a hidden labor market is simple, with an initial phase in which payments are relatively flat during unemployment and with no payments for long-term unemployed individuals. This scheme differs substantially from the one prescribed without a hidden labor market and resembles unemployment protection programs in many countries.     

‘Do versus Buy’ Decisions in the Demand for Knowledge Intensive Business Services

The search for the maximum use of scale and agglomeration economies and the need to operate firms in the most flexible way have provided a strong impulse for companies to increase their use of external intermediate services. Because of their strategic role, the use of business services that are intensive both in labour qualification and in technological requirements is key for these policies. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the patterns followed by companies in the two relevant decisions on this issue: firstly, whether to use knowledge intensive business services or not and, secondly, whether (and to what extent) to buy these services from another firm or to provide them inside the organisation. In both cases, we intend to identify the factors that affect the ‘do versus buy’ decision with respect to total KIBS as well as particular categories. A specific feature in our study is that it focuses on the behaviour of firms working in a region without a well-developed supply of KIBS. Applying discrete response models to the data obtained in a survey elaborated by the authors, the most relevant variables for the use of KIBS are satisfaction with previous outsourcing experiences and location of the firm in a large urban centre, but they do not affect their external provision. The size of the firm, its export orientation and its technological complexity have opposite effects on use and outsourcing.     

A positive theory of government debt

A government that cannot commit to future policy choices faces a trade-off that explains the level of debt. On the one hand, there is an incentive to increase debt and delay taxation, so as to reduce current distortions. On the other hand, inflating current prices lowers the real value of nominal debt and so there is a motive to reduce it now. The size of long-run debt will depend on the interaction of these two opposing incentives. The critical determinant is the willingness of households to substitute away from goods being taxed by inflation. Numerical simulations show that the model matches some qualitative and quantitative properties of U.S. policy variables, including the fact that wars are frequently financed with a mix of instruments. The theory interprets the unusual post-World War II inflation and fast liquidation of accumulated debt as being due to higher long-run debt and expenditure in the period leading up to the war.