Uniform Service,Uniform Productivity? Regional Efficiency of the Imperial German Postal,Telegraph, and Telephone Service

Using the regional productivity of the Reichspost, the postal service of the German Empire, I investigate whether a public monopolist operates with uniform regional productivity. Using data envelopment analysis efficiency scores, we derive the relative productivity of the post, telegraph, and telephone sectors from 1891 to 1908. Results show a fairly stable system with substantial raw productivity differences between postal districts, and that the expansion of the service offset technological productivity increases for the mail service.     

Zwei Jahre im Krisenmodus — die kommunalen Finanzen bleiben trotzdem stabil

Wirtschaftsdienst - Die kommunalen Finanzen stehen seit Beginn der Coronakrise unter besonderer Beobachtung. Die deutsche Politik hat zurecht erkannt, dass bei der Bekämpfung der Krise eine...     

COGNITIVE EMPATHY IN CONFLICT SITUATIONS

Two individuals are involved in a conflict situation in which preferences are ex ante uncertain. Although they eventually learn their own preferences, they have to pay a small cost if they want to secretly learn their opponent's preferences. We show that there is an interval with an upper bound less than 1 and lower bound greater than zero such that, for sufficiently small positive costs of information acquisition, in any Bayesian Nash equilibrium of the resulting game of incomplete information the probability of acquiring information about the opponent's preferences is within this interval.     

Dynamics of self-rated health and selective mortality

Self-rated health status (SRHS) is one of the most frequently used health measures in empirical health economics. This article analyzes the first seven waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and finds that (1) all available lags have decreasing but significant predictive power for current SRHS and (2) SRHS and future mortality are strongly related which leads to a specific selection problem known as survivorship bias. A parsimonious joint model with an autocorrelated latent health component in both the SRHS and the mortality equation is suggested. It is better able to capture the empirical facts than commonly used models including random effects and/or state dependence and better able to correct the survivorship bias than commonly used strategies such as inverse probability weighting.     

Wage subsidies, work incentives, and the reform of the Austrian welfare system

We analyze the employment and income effects of a needs-based minimum benefit system (“Bedarfsorientierte Mindestsicherung”) which has recently been introduced in Austria. The aim of this reform was to reduce poverty as well as to increase work incentives for recipients of social assistance. On the basis of a behavioral microsimulation model we show that this new system slightly increases employment but reduces incomes for the poorest households remaining unemployed. As an alternative, we analyze a budgetary neutral reform proposal which reduces financial incentives for marginal employment and provides a wage subsidy rewarding working longer hours. This alternative reform would yield larger positive employment effects, but more households would suffer from income losses. Overall, income inequality and poverty are affected little, however, both under the new social welfare system and the alternative reform proposal.     

Evolution of trading strategies in a market with heterogeneously informed agents

We present an agent-based simulation of an asset market with heterogeneously informed agents. Genetic programming is applied to optimize the agents’ trading strategies. After optimization, insiders are the only agents able to generate small systematic above-average returns. For all other agents, genetic programming finds a rich variety of trading strategies that are predominantly based on exclusive subsets of their information. This limits their price impact and prevents them from making systematic losses. The resulting low noise renders market prices as largely informationally efficient.     

On learning equilibria

Bullard (1994) and Schönhofer (1999) show that endogenous business cycles may emerge in an inflationary overlapping generations model where households predict future inflation rates by running a least squares regression on prices. We show that given the same beliefs but under an alternative, more natural, estimation procedure based upon inflation rates the monetary steady state will be globally stable for a large set of savings functions. We also study an evolutionary competition between the two estimation procedures. Although the dynamics are stabilized for a large set of parameter values, endogenous business cycles may still emerge in this heterogeneous beliefs framework.     

Relevance of barriers and facilitators in the use of health technology assessment in Colombia

Objectives: Several studies, mostly from developed countries, have identified barriers and facilitators with regard to the uptake of health technology assessment (HTA). This study elicited, using best-worst scaling (BWS), what HTA experts in Colombia consider to be the most important barriers and facilitators in the use of HTA, and makes a comparison to results from the Netherlands.

Methods: Two object case surveys (one for barriers, one for facilitators) were conducted among 18 experts (policymakers, health professionals, PhD students, senior HTA-researchers) from Colombia. Seven respondents were employees of the national HTA agency Instituto de Evaluación Tecnológica de Salud (IETS). In total, 22 barriers and 19 facilitators were included. In each choice task, participants were asked to choose the most and least important barrier/facilitator from a set of five. Hierarchical Bayes modeling was used to compute the mean relative importance scores (RIS) for each factor, and a subgroup analysis was conducted to assess differences between IETS and non-IETS respondents. The final ranking was further compared to the results from a similar study conducted in the Netherlands.

Results: The three most important barriers (RIS >6.00) were “Inadequate presentation format”, “Absence of policy networks”, and “Insufficient legal support”. The six most important facilitators (RIS >6.00) were “Appropriate timing”, “Clear presentation format”, “Improving longstanding relation”, “Appropriate incentives”, “Sufficient qualified human resources”, and “Availability to relevant HTA research”. The perceived relevance of the barriers and facilitators differed slightly between IETS and non-IETS employees, while the differences between the rankings in Colombia and the Netherlands were substantial.

Conclusion: The study suggests that barriers and facilitators related to technical aspects of processing HTA reports and to the contact and interaction between researchers and policymakers had the greatest importance in Colombia.     

A brief instrument to measure health-related quality-of-life in patients with bone metastasis: validation of the German version of Bone Metastases Quality-of-Life-10 (BOMET-QoL-10)

Aims: This prospective, epidemiologic study was designed to translate the original Spanish Bone Metastases Quality-of-Life-10 (BOMET-QoL-10) questionnaire and undertake a validation of the translated German version of BOMET-QoL-10 in Germany to assess health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) in patients with bone metastases (BM).

Methods: The translation process included forward and backward translations, and a linguistic validation. Patients aged ≥18 years with histological confirmation of cancer, diagnosed with BM, life expectancy ≥6 months, and fluency in German were eligible for this study (enrolled consecutively in 33 outpatient centers in Germany). Patients were given the German version of BOMET-QoL-10, together with the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Quality of Life Questionnaire QLQ-C30 and EORTC QLQ-BM22 questionnaires at inclusion, 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months after inclusion. A debriefing questionnaire was administered at inclusion to determine patient acceptability and understanding.

Results: Data include 364 patients with BM (median age?=?68 years; females?=?71.7%). The BOMET-QoL-10 is brief and clear (median completion time?=?5?minutes; >90% of patients completed the questionnaire without assistance). The BOMET-QoL-10 forms only one overall scale. All 10 items showed a substantial correlation with the first factor (factor loading, range?=?0.58–0.86). BOMET-QoL-10 exhibits high internal consistency and reproducibility (Cronbach’s alpha?=?0.91; intra-class correlation coefficient?=?0.76). BOMET-QoL-10 showed significant correlations (range?=?0.69–0.79) both with EORTC QLQ-C30 and EORTC QLQ-BM22 within the functioning (physical, social, interference) and symptom (fatigue, pain) scales, displayed significant sensitivity to change in EORTC QLQ-BM22 scores, and proved the potential ability to detect change in HRQoL in patients with different disease status.

Limitations: There was a high proportion of females in this study, which might represent a limitation.

Conclusions: The German version of BOMET-QoL-10 is a valid, reliable, brief, and clear instrument able to measure HRQoL in patients with BM.     

Likelihood approximation by numerical integration on sparse grids

The calculation of likelihood functions of many econometric models requires the evaluation of integrals without analytical solutions. Approaches for extending Gaussian quadrature to multiple dimensions discussed in the literature are either very specific or suffer from exponentially rising computational costs in the number of dimensions. We propose an extension that is very general and easily implemented, and does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Monte Carlo experiments for the mixed logit model indicate the superior performance of the proposed method over simulation techniques.