Endogenous business cycles and Harrodian instability in an agent-based model

The article presents an original stock-flow consistent macroeconomic agent-based model with the aim to reexamine Harrod’s instability principle as an explanatory element of macroeconomic dynamics. The main findings are that bottom-up economic models can be subject to Harrodian instability and can produce endogenous cycles without introducing innovation waves, monetary wage spirals, or financial instability. Upward instability is stopped by the ceiling of full employment, and downward instability can be tamed by introducing an autonomous expenditure that feeds aggregate demand.     

A Markov Switching Factor‐Augmented VAR Model for Analyzing US Business Cycles and Monetary Policy

This paper develops a Markov switching factor‐augmented vector autoregression to investigate the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy for distinct stages of the US business cycle. We assume that autoregressive parameters and covariance matrices of the error terms are regime dependent, driven by an unobserved Markov indicator. Endogenously determined transition probabilities are governed by an underlying probit model that features a large set of possible predictors. The empirical findings provide evidence for differences in the transmission of monetary policy shocks that mainly stem from heterogeneity in the responses of financial market quantities.     

Ethical reasoning in business‐to‐business negotiations: evidence from relationships in the chemical industry in Germany

This article explores managers’ ethical reasoning for behaviors in price negotiations using evidence from 15 in‐depth interviews conducted with sales and purchasing representatives in the chemical industry in Germany. Applying transaction cost economics, we find that negotiators in commoditized market‐like exchanges either refer to deontological norms such as not to lie, or they neglect a role for ethics, arguing that distributive negotiation is per se opportunistic. In contrast, exchanges of products with higher asset specificity lead to stronger informational integration which is supported with teleological justifications. Some negotiators use teleological justification to build business on trust rather than on economic safeguards as their firm norms would require. For negotiators, our results suggest considering institutional context and adjusting ethical reasoning to the negotiation situation. Firms need to recognize and find ways to address the potential conflicts of their internal norms with their frontline managers’ attempts to act in the firms’ best economic and ethical interests.     

Cost-utility analysis of alemtuzumab in comparison with interferon beta,fingolimod, and natalizumab treatment for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in Austria

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS), a chronic progressive, demyelinating, inflammatory disease, affects 2.5 million people worldwide. Approximately 63% of cases are classified as relapsing–remitting MS (RRMS) at the time of diagnosis. The aim of this cost-utility analysis is to evaluate alemtuzumab vs interferon beta (intramuscular [IM] interferon beta-1a, subcutaneous [SC] interferon beta-1a, SC interferon beta-1b, and SC pegylated interferon beta-1a) in previously treated, and vs SC interferon beta-1a, fingolimod, and natalizumab in untreated RRMS patients to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio among the treatment alternatives as prices, the route, and the frequency of administration of considered products vary significantly.

Methods: The primary outcome was the modeled incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; €/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained). Markov modeling with a 10-year time horizon was carried out. During each 3-month cycle, patients maintained the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score or experienced progression, developed secondary progressive MS (SPMS), or showed EDSS progression in SPMS; experienced relapses; suffered from an adverse event (AE); changed treatment; or died. A published network meta-analysis (NMA) was used for indirect comparison. The possibility of a therapy switch was considered. Clinical input data and resource utilization data were derived from the literature. Costs were extracted from price lists published in Austria and were calculated from the payer’s perspective.

Results: In treatment naïve patients, alemtuzumab is associated with costs of €132,663 and 5.25 QALYs in a 10-year time horizon. Costs for SC interferon beta amount to €164,159 and generate 4.85 QALYs. Also, in the pre-treated patients, alemtuzumab dominated comparators by accumulating higher total QALYs (4.88) and lower total costs (€137.409) compared to interferon beta-1a (€200.133), fingolimod (€240.903), and natalizumab (€247.758).

Conclusion: The analysis shows that alemtuzumab is a cost-saving alternative to treat RRMS in pre-treated and therapy naïve patients. From the patient perspective, alemtuzumab improves quality-of-life.     

Optimal Management Under Institutional Constraints: Determining a Total Allowable Catch for Different Fleet Segments in the Northeast Arctic Cod Fishery

Many real world fisheries have an individual vessel quota system with restrictions on transferability of quota or entrance of new vessels into the fishery. While the standard economic reasoning is that these institutional constraints lead to welfare losses, the size of those losses and optimal second-best policies are usually unknown. We develop a dynamic bioeconomic model, in which a scientific body provides an optimal TAC given restrictions on (i) transferability between vessel segments and (ii) entrance of new vessels. Further, we also quantify welfare losses arising from not maximizing economic welfare, but physical yield—which is actually the case in many fisheries. We apply the model to the Northeast Arctic cod fishery, and estimate not only the cost and harvesting functions of the various vessel types, but also the parameters of the biological model as well as those of the demand function. This allows us to determine optimal second-best policies and quantify corresponding welfare effects for our case study fishery.     

Managerial optimism and investment choice

This paper analyzes whether it might be desirable for a firm to hire an overoptimistic manager to commit to a certain R&D strategy. I consider a Cournot model with an ex‐ante R&D stage where firms can invest in cost reduction before product market competition takes place. I show that firms want to hire overoptimistic managers and argue that a manager's type may serve as a substitute for strategic delegation via contracts. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Supplier Portfolio Management for IT Services Considering Diversification Effects

By means of service-oriented architectures the IT support of processes can be designed as a portfolio of individual IT services provided by different suppliers. The processes are designed based on selection decisions between IT services that potentially have to be included. Many companies formulate a multitude of requirements for investments in IT services at ever shorter intervals. However, the scope of the desired investments usually exceeds the available budget. Thus, companies face the challenge of allocating the limited budget to investments in the most promising combination of IT services. This is hardly possible without methodical support. In addition, the allocation is often done intuitively and subject to the decision-makers’ affinity with IT. Therefore, this paper develops a quantitative, multi-period procedure model for the purpose of maximizing the enterprise value in accordance with value based management, which considers the dependencies of the periodical selection decisions. In the following, a decision logic for the heuristic solution to the selection problem is presented and its application is demonstrated by means of an illustrative case example.