Where states and markets meet: the financialisation of sovereign debt management

Financial markets play an indispensable role in the management of sovereign debt, that is, the mechanics of how and from whom governments borrow. This paper suggests a novel, two-dimensional concept to measure the financialisation of sovereign debt management (SDM): (1) the reliance on financial markets as a governance mechanism and (2) the adoption of a sense-making framework grounded in financial economics. We split this concept into nine indicators and apply it to data from 23 OECD countries between 1980 and 2010. Our analysis illustrates the predominant commonalities across countries, but at the same time, country-specific differences. We interpret them as two sides of the same coin in the light of an overarching trend of increasing alignment to financial markets. This article is not only one of the first cross-national as well as longitudinal studies of the dynamics in SDM; it also reveals that the relationship between finance and governments in the SDM is by no means one-sided.     

Forecasting with Global Vector Autoregressive Models: a Bayesian Approach

This paper develops a Bayesian variant of global vector autoregressive (B‐GVAR) models to forecast an international set of macroeconomic and financial variables. We propose a set of hierarchical priors and compare the predictive performance of B‐GVAR models in terms of point and density forecasts for one‐quarter‐ahead and four‐quarter‐ahead forecast horizons. We find that forecasts can be improved by employing a global framework and hierarchical priors which induce country‐specific degrees of shrinkage on the coefficients of the GVAR model. Forecasts from various B‐GVAR specifications tend to outperform forecasts from a naive univariate model, a global model without shrinkage on the parameters and country‐specific vector autoregressions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decaf or double shot? The strength of franchisor control over HRM in coffee franchises

The franchise relationship presents a unique composition of autonomy and control. Franchisee autonomy is located somewhere between employed managers and independent business owners, while the franchisor regulates core processes such as marketing and product development. While heavy franchisor control over certain functions is customary and in fact integral to the franchise model, the delineation of HRM responsibilities in the franchise relationship is less clear. Using qualitative data from three Australian coffee chains, we examine the role of the corporate HR and the degree to which HRM activities are centralised, and develop a typology of franchisor HRM control. We find substantial variation between cases and demonstrate that it is the franchisor's strategic decision to prioritise brand protection or liability avoidance that ultimately determines whether their control over HRM can be described as ‘decaf’ weak or ‘double shot’ strength.     

Learning to manage: development experiences of hospital frontline managers

In high performing human resource management (HRM) systems, much responsibility for managing employees and associated processes is typically devolved to frontline managers (FLMs). Research indicates that undeveloped FLM HRM ability can impact performance, particularly in health‐care organisations. We present the incidence and characteristics of HRM‐oriented learning and development programs for FLMs in hospitals with high performing systems of HRM, and experiences of FLMs directly participating in them. We combine data from 50 Australian hospital accreditation reports with interviews from eight ‘high performance HRM’ cases. We find: almost all high performers develop FLM HRM ability; development programs are extremely diverse between hospitals and succession planning is deficient. While primarily focused on understanding ability, the study contributes to the ability, motivation, opportunity framework, proposing a model and new interrelationships between these variables in the FLM context.     

The consequences of land-use change and water demands in Central Mongolia

After two decades of decreasing agricultural activities, in 2008 the Mongolian government started the “Third Campaign of Reclaiming Virgin Lands”, aiming at massive expansion and intensification of the agricultural sector. This policy motivated the study presented here, for which we used an integrated modelling approach to investigate the feedbacks between land-use dynamics, agricultural management and biophysical conditions, with a strong focus on assessing availability of water for irrigation. Our simulation results clearly show that under the current extend of irrigated agriculture in several years water demands exceeded water availability, indicating an overexploitation of water resources, mainly in the period 1995–2006. Consequently, the targeted expansion of agricultural water use will either severely deplete water resources with potential negative effects on other users and the environment, or policies are needed to mitigate or avoid potential adverse effects. As simultaneously Mongolian authorities struggle to implement integrated water resources management (IWRM), the latter might provide monitoring concepts and regulations needed to minimise the potential gap between water demands and availability. In this context, integrated modelling could be a scientific tool to support future land and water management decisions, as researchers already started to integrate views and demands of Mongolian authorities into scenario and model development (identified during stakeholder workshops), and will continue to do so during the coming years of collaborative research.     

Conserving biodiversity with tradable permits under changing conservation costs and habitat restoration time lags

Tradable permits are a common environmental policy instrument that has recently been applied also to the conservation of biodiversity. Biodiversity conservation differs in many respects to the classical applications of tradable permits like emissions control. One particularity is that, even if the permit system maintains a constant total amount of species habitat, habitat turnover (the destruction of a habitat and restoration elsewhere) affects the ecosystem. Another particularity is that the restoration of habitats often takes much time, leading to time lags between the initiation of restoration activities and the time when restored habitat is available for trading. We use an agent-based model of a tradable permit market to study the influence of heterogeneous and dynamic conservation costs and habitat restoration time lags on key variables of the market, such as the costs incurred to the market participants and the amount of habitat turnover. Our results show that there may be trade-offs between these key variables. We also find that restoration time lags can lead to fluctuations in permit prices that reduce the efficiency of the permit market. We conclude that temporal lags deserve a careful analysis when implementing tradable permit systems for the preservation of natural habitats and biodiversity.     

The Macroeconomics of Financial Crises: How Risk Premiums and Liquidity Traps Affect Policy Options

The paper offers an overview of what structural models of the IS-LM and Mundell-Fleming variety can tell about the macroeconomics of economic crises. In addition to demonstrating how the emergence of risk premiums in money and capital markets can generate liquidity traps at positive interest rates and may drive economies into recessions, it shows the following: (1) Fiscal policy works even in a small, open economy under flexible exchange rates when the country is stuck in a liquidity trap; (2) Near the fringe of liquidity traps, there may be perfect traps, in which neither monetary nor fiscal policy works when used in isolation but policy coordination is called for; and (3) Massive financial crises in the domestic money market may even destabilize the economy.     

What matters in a price negotiation: Evidence from the U.S. auto retailing industry

While there is a great deal of theoretical and experimental literature on what factors affect bargaining outcomes, there is little empirical work based on data from real markets. In this paper we analyze negotiations for new cars, a $340 billion industry in the United States in 2010. Our results suggest that search costs, incomplete information, and bargaining disutility have an economically significant effect in real-world negotiations: we estimate that relative to an uninformed consumer, a consumer with basic information about the seller’s reservation price and his own outside options captures 15% of the average dealer margin from selling an automobile. We also find that a buyer’s search cost and bargaining disutility have significant effects on bargaining outcomes. Finally, our results show that while search is common, there remains a substantial group of consumers who do not engage in any of the search behaviors we measure. We hypothesize that these buyers are not aware of how easy and effective certain activities in improving negotiation outcomes can be.     

On the Edge of Buying: A Targeting Approach for Indecisive Buyers Based on Willingness-to-Pay Ranges

Targeting the “right” consumers is a core part of marketing. Whereas existing techniques to identify these consumers use demographic or psychographic variables or behaviors such as response probabilities, a proposed new targeting approach builds on consumers’ incremental responses to identify them by their willingness-to-pay (WTP) ranges. These WTP ranges reveal a consumer as a definite buyer, a definite non-buyer, or an indecisive buyer. The proposed theoretical framework indicates that indecisive buyers offer the highest incremental responses to targeted marketing mix activities and thus should be the most preferred targeting group. A sequence of three laboratory experimental studies validates the proposed approach for targeted price discounts and non-price tactics. In addition, a large-scale field experiment involving a consumer engagement campaign that includes observed purchase behavior demonstrates the high external validity and applicability of this approach.