The interplay between risk adjustment and risk rating in voluntary health insurance

Many regulated health insurance markets include risk adjustment (aka risk equalization) to mitigate selection incentives for insurers. Empirical studies on the design and evaluation of risk-adjustment algorithms typically focus on mandatory health insurance schemes. This paper considers risk adjustment in the context of voluntary health insurance, as found in Chile, Ireland, and Australia. In addition to the challenge of mitigating selection by insurers, regulators of these voluntary schemes have to deal with selection by consumers in and out of the market. A strategy for mitigating selection by consumers is to apply some form of risk rating. Our paper shows how risk adjustment and risk rating interact: (1) risk rating reduces the need for risk adjustment and (2) risk adjustment reduces premium variation across rating factors, thereby increasing incentives for consumers to select in and out of the market.     

Measures of the Amending Power of Government and Parliament. The Case of Italy 1988–2002

On the basis of a unique data set consisting of all the amendments to the Italian financial laws from 1988 to 2002, we empirically test whether and how the amending power is an instrument of the parliament or of the government and whether the use of this power was modified by the change of the electoral system in 1994. We show that, in both electoral systems, governments controlled the agenda and parliaments never exploited this power to increase the deficits beyond the planned value. The structural break of the Italian budgetary policy was determined by the Maastricht fiscal rules.     

Empirical validation of simulated models through the GSL-div: an illustrative application

A major concern about the use of simulation models regards their relationship with the empirical data. The identification of a suitable indicator quantifying the distance between the model and the data would help and guide model selection and output validation. This paper proposes the use of a new criterion, called GSL-div and developed in Lamperti (Econ Stat, 2017.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2017.01.006), to assess the degree of similarity between the dynamics observed in the data and those generated by the numerical simulation of models. As an illustrative application, this approach is used to distinguish between different versions of the well known asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs proposed in Brock and Hommes (J Econ Dyn Control 22(8–9):1235–1274, 1998.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1889(98)00011-6). Once the discrimination ability of the GSL-div is proved, model’s dynamics are directly compared with actual data coming from two major stock market indexes (EuroSTOXX 50 for Europe and CSI 300 for China). Results show that the model, once calibrated, is fairly able to track the evolution of both the two indexes, even though a better fit is reported for the Chinese stock market. However, I also find that many different combinations of traders’ behavioural rules are compatible with the same observed dynamics. Within this heterogeneity, an emerging common trait is found: to be empirically valid, the model has to account for a strong trend following component, which might either come from a unique trend type that heavily extrapolates information from past observations or the combinations of different types with milder, or even opposite, attitudes towards the trend.     

Assessing the Value of Growth Option Synergies from Business Combinations and Testing for Goodwill Impairment: A Real Options Perspective

Goodwill is an intangible asset, and therefore hard to measure and difficult to account for. This article argues that the two‐stage impairment test for acquired goodwill under SFAS 142 has several limitations. Most important, it measures aggregate rather than acquired goodwill, making it very difficult to separate acquisition‐related goodwill from aggregate enterprise goodwill after a business combination. As a consequence, any potential deterioration of acquired goodwill value could be concealed by increases in internally generated goodwill. As an alternative, the authors propose a real options approach to managing a business unit portfolio as a better framework for conducting the goodwill impairment test. A real options approach to testing goodwill for impairment—as opposed to the standard fair value assessment based on DCF analysis—not only accounts for deterioration in the value of goodwill, but also captures upward potential. It enables tracking of the changes in goodwill value from one period to the next, providing a less biased estimate of its real value at each point in time.     

Multiple equilibria in a cash-in-advance two-sector economy

We consider a two-sector infinite horizon economy with a fractional cash-in-advance constraint on consumption expenditures. This formulation allows us to consider a steady-state velocity of money that is strictly greater than one and, therefore, provides a more plausible framework than the standard formulation in which all the consumption purchases are paid cash. We prove that the steady state is bound to be indeterminate and multiple equilibria occur when the share of the liquidity constraint is low enough and that a capital-intensive investment good or a strongly capital-intensive consumption good improve considerably the scope for indeterminacy. As a consequence, we show that without any restriction on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption, multiple equilibria might occur if the velocity of money is greater than a critical bound that is compatible with empirical estimates.     

How much equity capital did the Tokyo Stock Exchange really raise?

Even though the channelling of equity capital from savers to listed firms is one of the primary functions of a stock market, not much effort has been devoted to the problem of measuring the phenomenon. External equity financing, traditionally associated with the issue of new shares, depends also on the sale of already issued shares. This additional form of collection of equity capital becomes relevant when the firms of the market are connected by cross-shareholdings (as in Japan): the phenomenon of equity carve-out is a relevant example of equity financing obtained through the sale of existing shares. The paper presents a model for computing the equity capital raised by companies listed in a given stock exchange over a specified period of time, which is non trivial when firms are connected by cross-shareholdings. A numerical computation of the net amount of equity financing in the Tokyo Stock Exchange in the period 1971–1992 is reported: it shows that the net (or true) measure is significantly different and, in most cases, lower than the conventional one.     

Gastric liposarcoma: CT appearance

Two cases of liposarcoma of the stomach are described. At computed tomography (CT) the neoplasms showed features of an aggressive malignant tumor, with no fatty values within. We discuss the differential diagnosis of such lesions and conclude that, although rare, liposarcoma should be considered as a possible diagnosis when a large exophytic gastric mass is detected at CT.     

Technical efficiency,specialization and ownership form: evidences from a pooling of Italian hospitals

We evaluate how the productive structure and level of specialization of a hospital affect technical efficiency by analyzing a six-year panel database (2000/2005) drawn from hospital discharge records and Ministry of Health data. We adopt a distance function approach, while measuring the technical efficiency level with stochastic frontier techniques. After controlling for environmental variables and hospital case-mix, inefficiency is negatively associated with specialization and positively associated with capitalization. Capitalization is typical of private structures which, on average, use resources less efficiently with respect to public and not-for-profit hospitals. Finally, by looking at scale elasticities, we find some evidence of unexploited economies of scale, leaving room for centralization.     

Beta Regimes for the Yield Curve

We propose an affine term structure model which accommodatesnonlinearities in the drift and volatility function of the short-terminterest rate. Such nonlinearities are a consequence of discretebeta-distributed regime shifts constructed on multiple thresholds.We derive iterative closed-form formula for the whole yieldcurve dynamics that can be estimated using a linearized Kalmanfilter. Fitting the model on US data, we collect empirical evidenceof its potential in estimating conditional volatility and correlationacross yields.     

On the microstructure of price determination and information aggregation with sequential and asymmetric information arrival in an experimental asset market

Summary. Experiments were conducted on an asset with the structure of an option. The information of any individual is limited, as if only the direction of movement of the option value known for a single period without information of the value from when movement was initiated. However, if all information of all insiders were pooled, the value of the option would be known with certainty. The results are the following: (1) Information becomes aggregated in the prices as if fully informative rational expectations operated; and (2) The mechanism through which information gets into the market is captured by a path dependent process that we term The Fundamental Coordination Principle of Information Transfer in Competitive Markets. The early contracts tend to be initiated by insiders who tender limit orders. The emergence of bubbles and mirages in the markets are coincident with failures and circumstances that prevent the operation of the Fundamental Principle.The financial support of the national science foundation and the Caltech Laboratory for Experimental Economics and Political Science are gratefully acknowledged. The authors have benefited from helpful comments of David Grether, Kerry Back, Ivana Komunjer and Pete Kyle.