Accurate Short-Term Yield Curve Forecasting using Functional Gradient Descent

We propose a multivariate nonparametric technique for generatingreliable short-term historical yield curve scenarios and confidenceintervals. The approach is based on a Functional Gradient Descent(FGD) estimation of the conditional mean vector and covariancematrix of a multivariate interest rate series. It is computationallyfeasible in large dimensions and it can account for nonlinearitiesin the dependence of interest rates at all available maturities.Based on FGD we apply filtered historical simulation to computereliable out-of-sample yield curve scenarios and confidenceintervals. We back-test our methodology on daily USD bond datafor forecasting horizons from 1 to 10 days. Based on severalstatistical performance measures we find significant evidenceof a higher predictive power of our method when compared toscenarios generating techniques based on (i) factor analysis,(ii) a multivariate CCC-GARCH model, or (iii) an exponentialsmoothing covariances estimator as in the RiskMetrics^TM approach.     

An investigation of wholly‐owned foreign subsidiary control through transaction cost economics theory

This paper investigates the management control systems used by multinational corporation headquarters to control wholly‐owned foreign subsidiaries. Our theory development is based on transaction cost economics. First, we conduct a series of exploratory interviews, providing an insight into the context, and second, we provide empirical evidence based on cross‐sectional survey data. Our results indicate that activity traits (uncertainty, asset specificity and post hoc information impactedness) have significant implications on control choices, in particular the control archetype combinations chosen by headquarters, although not all results are consistent with theory predictions. Our findings are supported by extensive alternative testing.     

Individual Differences in the Disposition Effect

The authors model the role of personality traits in explaining the disposition effect building on realization utility theory and Big 5 model and moving from an aggregate level to interindividual differences. The experimental analysis, combining NEO Revised Personality Inventory measures with individual financial data from a trading simulation run by 230 individuals in China and Italy, shows that the disposition effect is driven by 2 distinct psychological processes, one related to holding losers and the other to selling winners. These 2 behavioral mechanisms are uncorrelated and influenced by different personality traits. Controlling for different demographic variables, the authors show (a) a greater sensitivity of the rewarding system that motivates “extroverts” to quickly sell the stock at gain to receive a burst of utility; (b) a tendency for “conscientious” subjects to suppress impulsivity, patiently waiting for higher cumulative returns; and (c) the importance of “openness to experience” to better value information to achieve higher outcomes.     

Interregional Migration of Human Capital and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from Italian Provinces

Since the mid‐1990s interregional migration flows in Italy have dramatically increased, especially from the South to the North. These flows are characterized by a strong component of human capital, involving a large number of workers with secondary and tertiary education. Using longitudinal data for the period 2002–2011 at NUTS‐3 territorial level, we document that long‐distance (i.e., South‐North) net migration of high‐skill workers has increased the unemployment at origin and decreased it at destination, thus deepening North–South unemployment disparities. On the other hand, long‐distance net migration of low‐skill workers has had the opposite effect, by lowering the unemployment at origin and raising it at destination. Further evidence also suggests that the diverging effect of high‐skill migration dominates the converging effect of low‐skill migration. Thus, concerns for an ‘internal brain drain’ from Southern regions look not groundless.     

Endogenous skill cycles

This paper explores the ability of a class of one-sector models to generate endogenous skills cycles. Skills cycles are here defined as endogenous fluctuations of the composition of equilibrium allocation of labor services. We consider a one sector economy in which there exist one type of capital stock and a finite number of different labor services, which are assumed to be heterogeneous along the skill/productivity dimension. We apply the Hopf bifurcation theorem and provide necessary conditions on the model’s parameters for having a closed orbit as the economy’s stable set. We also develop a numerical example (based on the United States economy) showing how this closed orbit can appear under reasonable parameter values.