On Choosing and Bounding Probability Metrics

When studying convergence of measures, an important issue is the choice of probability metric. We provide a summary and some new results concerning bounds among some important probability metrics/distances that are used by statisticians and probabilists. Knowledge of other metrics can provide a means of deriving bounds for another one in an applied problem. Considering other metrics can also provide alternate insights. We also give examples that show that rates of convergence can strongly depend on the metric chosen. Careful consideration is necessary when choosing a metric.     

Food price increases and net food importing countries: lessons from the recent past

Recent increases in food and other commodity prices have highlighted concerns that many poor countries are net food importers and higher food prices would worsen their trade balances. In this article, we analyze the changes in food trade balances associated with the 32% increase in food prices from 2000/2001 to 2004/2005. We find a small deterioration in food trade balances of low‐income countries and an improvement in middle‐income countries. The deterioration is most severe for countries in conflict and small island states, so attention should be placed first on these countries and on a few very‐low‐income countries that are also vulnerable. Because low‐income countries as a group had much lower agricultural GDP growth rates than middle‐income countries, the answers to food vulnerability in low‐income countries should probably be addressed within the context of incentives for agricultural production.     

Estimating the impact of farmer field schools in sub‐Saharan Africa: the case of cocoa

This study measures the economic impact of the first phase of the Cocoa Livelihood Program (CLP‐I), a current World Cocoa Foundation (WCF) project, sponsored by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and aimed at improving the livelihood of over 200,000 small cocoa producers in sub‐Saharan Africa via training, crop diversification, and farmer‐based organizations. Using data collected from 2,048 pre‐ and post‐CLP‐I interviews of cocoa producers in Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, and Cameroon, the results show that yield enhancements attributable to CLP‐I are 32%, 34%, 50%, and 62% in Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, and Cameroon, respectively. Using a total program cost of $151–$200 per beneficiary and estimated annual benefits of $109–$322 per beneficiary over 25 years, the benefit‐cost ratios are estimated to range from $18 to $62 for every dollar spent on human capital development. These results suggest the WCF should endeavor to increase the number of farmers who receive all, not some, of the components of the program. This would not only help ensure that each producer obtains as much human capital as possible from each of the training programs but increases the probability of reaching the CLP goal of doubling the income of cocoa‐growing households.     

Formation of diacrylic acid during acrylic acid storage

Diacrylic acid (β-acryloxypropionic acid) forms spontaneously in bulk acrylic acid by a Michael-addition reaction. Fresh samples of acrylic acid containing 0.08–2.9% (m/m) levels of water were stored at constant temperatures of 15, 25, 35, and 45°C up to 65 days. An empirical equation to predict diacrylic acid formation was generated from the data.     

Leverage and growth: Effect of stock options

Previous literature documents a negative relationship between leverage and firm growth. This paper finds that once the incentives provided by stock options are accounted for, leverage does not affect firm growth. The paper also finds that the sensitivity of CEOs’ wealth to stock price (i.e. option delta) instead of leverage has a negative relationship with growth. These findings suggest that incentive contracts that tie managers’ wealth to firm value prevent managers from overinvesting. Thus in presence of options the role of debt as a disciplining mechanism has become less important.     

Agricultural Export-Diversification and Economic Growth in Caribbean Countries: Cointegration and Error-Correction Models

This article uses cointegration and error-correction models to analyze the causal relationship between agricultural export diversification and economic growth in eight selected Caribbean countries using annual data from 1961 to 2000. The empirical results show that in the short run, agricultural export diversification Granger causes economic growth in Barbados and Belize. Noncausality exists for the other countries. In the long run, agricultural export diversification also Granger causes economic growth in the Dominican Republic. On the contrary, agricultural export diversification is the outcome of the economic growth process in Belize, Costa Rica, Haiti, and Jamaica, in the long run. Noncausality exists in Trinidad and Tobago. There is no evidence of bi-directional causality in any of the countries in either the short or long run.     

Age of first hunting experience: Results from a nationwide recreation survey

Abstract

Hunting participation, as indicated in the 1983 Nationwide Recreation Survey, is examined to determine the relationship between age of first hunting experience and adult level of participation. A statistically significant association between these two variables is found. In addition, more than 83 percent of those who hunt began their involvement by 18 years of age. The findings have implications for future hunting participation and the provision of programs for hunters.     

A generalized algebraic model for optimizing inventory decisions in a centralized or decentralized multi-stage multi-firm supply chain

First of all, a number of integrated models with/without lot streaming under the integer multiplier coordination mechanism is generalized by allowing lot streaming and three types of inspection for some/all upstream firms. Secondly, the optimal solutions to the three- and four-stage models are individually derived, both using the perfect squares method, which is a simple algebraic approach so that ordinary readers unfamiliar with differential calculus can easily understand how to obtain the optimal solution procedures. Thirdly, optimal expressions for some well-known models are deduced. Fourthly, expressions for sharing the coordination benefits based on Goyal’s (1976) scheme are derived, and a further sharing scheme is introduced. Fifthly, two numerical examples for illustrative purposes are presented. Finally, some future research works involving extension or modification of the generalized model are suggested.