What are the real prospects for total EC integration?

Nothing can stop the momentum behind the movement for total European integration, or so it would seem. But what about the impact of Gemn reunijication, strong nationalistic feelings, and the socialist tradition in Europe? The authors look at what impact these might have on the move toward creation of a Single Market.     

Technology transactions: networks over markets

There is a widespread belief in the business community that firms can rely on the market for buying and selling technological opportunities. The argument is: with so much technology development going on in the world, ‘there must be somebody somewhere who has the technology we need.’ According to this belief, acquiring new technology just boils down to finding the supplier, possibly with the help of a specialized intermediary. Several large firms have indeed developed ambitious mechanisms for acquiring the needed technological know-how as they proceed to make and market a new product. We contend that this concept of the technology transfer process is erroneous, as it conflicts with actual practice. The very high transaction costs entailed leave considerable room for opportunistic behavior and are more likely to occur when the parties do not know each other. An effective way to reduce transaction costs, therefore, is to limit technology transfers to the firm's partners, i.e. organizations with which the firm has already interacted in the past. Our research provides evidence that successful technology transfers typically take place between suppliers and buyers who had business relationships before considering a technology agreement. In addition, we report findings that companies using intermediaries (technological opportunities catalogues, databases, fairs, etc.) have been disappointed in their attempts to find new technologies from unknown sources. Because of the high risk of opportunistic behavior, it is practically impossible to assess the value of a technology without knowing who sells it. Similarly, the technology transfer capabilities of a company are difficult to appraise without prior knowledge through business interaction. To a certain extent, it may be better to buy any technology from a partner that one knows well than to buy a supposedly good technology from a firm with which one has had no experience. To put it bluntly: the identity of the partner may actually matter more than the technology being traded! Consequently, the relevant framework for technology transfer is built on a ‘network concept’ rather than the ‘market concept’. Firms wishing to acquire new technology should turn first to their network of trusted business partners, looking for available technological opportunities instead of trying to buy technology from unrelated organizations.     

The Volatility and Transmission of Equity Returns among the G-7 Countries: the post-Bretton Woods experience

This paper models the volatility of national stock market returns of the G-7 countries using ARCH and GARCH modeling techniques. Then, via the use of vector autoregression analysis, the international transmission of volatility among the countries is explored for the period between April 1973 and July 1990. Variance decompositions are calculated in order to quantify the impacts of volatility shocks in one market on the others. Impulse response functions are used to inspect the dynamic responses of domestic and foreign volatility shocks. Results indicate that volatility transmission among the G-7 countries is the norm in the post-Bretton Woods era. Further, we find that volatility shocks are generally absorbed within six to nine months.     

The effect of audit firm size on audit prices: A study of the Australian Market

The effect of audit firm size on prizes is a complex function of competition in the market for audit services, product differentiation, and scale economics to large firms. In this study, a competitive market is supported in Australia with product differentiation to Bif Eight accounting firms. Specially, Big Eight accounting firms have significantly higher audit prices than non-Big Eight firms. This results holds for ‘large’ and ‘small’ auditees. A test is also made of price cutting in the Australian market. Price cutting is defined as lower initial audit fees than continuing engagement fees for a comparable audit. Test results do not evidence price-cutting behavior by accounting firms. There is in fact weak evidence that initial audit fees are higher than continuing engagement fee levels. Higher initial fees suggest that accounting firms may recover at least some of the audit start-up costs immediately.     

The signalling process in initial public offerings

This study uses a sample of Singapore IPOs to examine the signalling process at the time of a new issue of shares. The multiple regression analysis results support three testable implications of the Grinblatt and Hwang model. We show that (1) the value of the firm is positively related to the fractional holding of the issuer, (2) the degree of underpricing is an increasing function of the variance, and (3) firm value is positively related to the degree of underpricing.     

WORLD OUTLOOK

The slowdown in the world economy, which followed last year's oil price collapse and which awakened fears that the world was on the threshold of a new recession, is coming to an end. Output growth in the first half of the year was stronger than we had previously expected and a gentle acceleration is forecast over the next eighteen months. In contrast to this improvement on output, there has been little or no progress on the major problems of the world economy, including the USA's twin structural deficits, budget and trade, and the international debt crisis. Moreover, with the US facing elections in just over a year's time, no economic initiative is likely until 1989. Hence the prevailing view that the US and world economies will "muddle through" for another year. But in 1989 a new US administration is likely to face up to the trade and budget imbalances and many US forecasters believe that the required fiscal tightening will lead to recession. As we explain below, this is not our view and the forecast embodies steady 3 per cent growth in the world economy over the medium term. Inflation has now passed the low point brought about by the oil price collapse. On our forecast of output, inflation is expected to remain close to its present underlying rate of 4 per cent.