Information Uncertainty and Post-Earnings-Announcement-Drift

Abstract:  We examine whether rational investor responses to information uncertainty (IU) explain properties of and returns to the post-earnings-announcement-drift (PEAD) trading anomaly. Consistent with a rational learning explanation, we find that: (1) unexpected earnings (UE) signals that are characterized as having greater IU have more muted initial market reactions; (2) extreme UE portfolios are characterized by securities with higher IU than non-extreme UE portfolios; and (3) within the extreme UE portfolios, high IU securities are more prevalent and earn larger abnormal returns than low IU securities. Further tests show that prior evidence of greater PEAD profitability for higher idiosyncratic volatility securities is explained by the greater information uncertainty associated with these securities.     

Structure of Sectoral Decomposition of Aggregate Poverty Changes in Cameroon

Abstract: This paper reviews theoretical frameworks for sectoral decomposition and assesses the within‐ and between‐sector contributions to changes in aggregate poverty in Cameroon informed by the Shapley Value decomposition rule. Between 1984 and 1996 poverty remained a rural phenomenon in Cameroon. It became more widespread, deeper and severer in both rural and urban areas, but more so in urban than rural areas. While the within‐sector effects disproportionately accounted for the increase in poverty in the period 1984–96, the between‐sector contributions in both rural and semi‐urban areas played a mitigating role on the worse effects of the increase in poverty. These findings infer the potential positive feedback effects of migration such as remittances, and/or increases in rural consumption expenditure in the face of rural underemployment, as effective strategies used by migrants to lift their families and villages out of the worse effects of poverty. The implication of this interpretation is that decision‐makers need to better understand the factors that push or pull potential migrants. Rural–urban mobility could, therefore, be viewed as a strategy used by households to moderate the worse effects of poverty and a vector of shared growth. The implications for public policy, in terms of open unemployment and associated social and insecurity problems at the receiving end, point to the wisdom of addressing the push‐factors via targeting more in favour of rural areas.     

The Relative and Incremental Explanatory Power of Earnings and Alternative (to Earnings) Performance Measures for Returns*

We analyze the ability of earnings and non‐earnings performance metrics to explain the variability in annual stock returns for industries where we identify, ex ante, an allegedly preferred (for valuation purposes) summary performance metric. We identify three industries where earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and cash from operations (CFO) are preferred, and three industries where specific non‐GAAP performance metrics are preferred. As a benchmark, we also examine the ability of EBITDA and CFO to explain returns for seven industries for which earnings is the preferred metric. Results for the benchmark earnings industries show that earnings dominates EBITDA and CFO in explaining returns. All other results are inconsistent with the view that perceptions of preferred metrics are reflected in actual aggregate investment behaviors.     

Testing for deliberate underpricing in the IPO premarket: a stochastic frontier approach

We reevaluate the IPO underpricing phenomenon using the stochasticfrontier methodology. The advantage of the stochastic frontieris that it can be used to measure the level of deliberate underpricingin the premarket without using after-market information. Thisis accomplished through the estimation of a systematic one-sidederror term that measures 'inefficiency' or the difference betweenthe maximum predicted offer price and the actual offer price.Data for the analysis are comprised of 1,035 IPOs of commonstock issued by firm commitment between 1975 and 1984. IPOsappear to be deliberately underpriced in the premarket in bothhot-market and nonhot-market periods. Moreover, the determinantsof the maximum IPO price have different effects in the two timeperiods.     

THE CHANGING RISK PROFILE OF U.S.-BASED MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS EXPOSED TO EUROPEAN COMMUNITY MARKETS

In this study we investigate the risk characteristics of U.S.-based multinational corporations (MNCs) that conduct much of their business in the European Community. Specifically, we assess the efficacy of a multifactor return-generating model that incorporates the influence of U.S. and European markets. Our results demonstrate that the European market is a significant factor in explaining the time-series behavior of MNC returns, and that the European market influence is stronger since the adoption of the Single European Act. In addition, the reduction in the sensitivity of MNCs to the U.S. market since the Single European Act is cross-sectionally associated with changes in their proportional levels of European sales. The results suggest that the returns of other MNCs expanding into increasingly integrated regional blocs may experience similar changes in their systematic risk profile.     

Drug discovery and development in four Canadian biotech companies

In this paper, we discuss the R&D process in the pharmaceutical/biotechnology industry from the viewpoint of four leading Canadian biotech startups. Based on a series of interviews with these firms, we outline the role of joint ventures and strategic alliances with university laboratories and with large established pharmaceutical firms in furthering these small firms' ambition of themselves becoming large and established. We find that the evolution of this industry has made this goal much harder to reach and we discuss the creative ways in which these firms have adapted and thrived.     

Modeling volatility and changes in the swap spread

We investigate the determinants of changes in U.S. interest rate swap spreads using a model that explicitly allows for volatility interactions between swaps of different terms to maturity. Changes in the swap spread are found to be positively related to interest rate volatility, to changes in the default risk premium in the corporate bond market, and to changes in the liquidity premium for government securities. Swap spread changes are negatively related to changes in the level of interest rates and changes in the slope of the term structure. We also find that there is a strong and significant volatility interaction among spreads for swaps of different maturities and that the process for the conditional variance of the spread is highly persistent across all maturities.     

The effect of spillovers on the provision of local public goods

This paper analyzes the provision of local public goods with positive spillovers across jurisdictions. If spillovers are symmetric, the non-cooperative game played by jurisdictions admits a unique equilibrium, and an increase in spillovers reduces the total provision of public goods. Smaller jurisdictions always reduce their contribution, but larger jurisdictions can increase their contribution. When spillovers are asymmetric, equilibrium is unique if spillovers are low, while multiple equilibria exist for high spillover values. In the case of two jurisdictions, an increase in the flow of spillovers to one jurisdiction benefits agents from that jurisdiction but harms agents in the other jurisdiction. Beyond the case of two jurisdictions, the effect of changes in spillovers cannot be signed. An increase in the spillovers flowing to a jurisdiction can actually result in an increase in the supply of public goods by that jurisdiction and harm agents residing in it, while benefiting agents in the other jurisdictions. The results of the paper reveal the complexity of interactions that will plague the design of institutions for multijurisdictional local public good economies with spillovers.