Trust or not: Heuristics for making trust-based choices in HR management

The present two studies examine how the participants (i.e., 150 managers) make trust-based employee selection in hypothetical situations, based on five cues of trustworthiness derived from previous surveys. In Study 1, each executive participant is presented with a pair of candidates with different cue profiles so that the choice would favor one of them based upon each of the four following heuristics: Franklin's rule, likelihood expectancy, take-the-best (TTB), and minimum requirement (MR). Study 2 adopting a within-subject design jointly compares the four heuristics. The results show that simple heuristics (MR and TTB) outperform the more complex strategies (Franklin's rule and likelihood expectancy) in their predictive accuracy. The MR heuristic, a heuristic tallying the frequency of passes against a set of minimal rather than optimal or satisfactory requirements, performs even better than the TTB heuristic, particularly when the number of the cues identified as MRs is small.     

Accountability as aporia,testimony, and gift

This paper contributes to the understanding of accountability in its relation with responsibility. It applies Derrida's work on responsibility, testimony, and gift to the problematic of accountability. Accountability's entanglement in the tension between, morality and ethics, singular and general responsibilities is examined, and Derrida's analysis of the aporia of responsibility is expressed and explored in terms of an aporia of accountability: It is argued that accountability relies on responsibility but that the rendering of accountability tends to undermine responsibility. In seeking to make a positive contribution to the question of how accountability might contribute to raising levels of responsibility for the other, the wholly other, the paper critically builds on existing Levinasian perspectives on this question, and develops the suggestion, inspired by Derrida's work, that in appropriate circumstances the reconfiguring of accountability as testimony and as gift might help enhance responsibility.     

Markov Aging Process and Phase-Type Law of Mortality

Abstract

In this article, we propose a finite-state Markov process with one absorbing state to model human mortality. A health index called physiological age is introduced and modeled by the Markov process. Under this model the time of death follows a phase-type distribution. The model possesses many desirable analytical properties useful for mortality analysis. Closed-form expressions are available for many quantities of interest including the conditional survival probabilities of the time of death and the actuarial present values of the whole life insurance and annuity. The heterogeneity or frailty effect of a cohort can be expressed explicitly. The model is also able to explain some stylized facts of observed mortality data. We fit the model to some Swedish population cohort data and life tables compiled by the U.S. Social Security Administration. The fitting results are very satisfactory.     

Pricing Annuity Guarantees Under a Regime-Switching Model

Abstract

We consider the pricing problem of equity-linked annuities and variable annuities under a regimeswitching model when the dynamic of the market value of a reference asset is driven by a generalized geometric Brownian motion model with regime switching. In particular, we assume that regime switching over time according to a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite number state space representing economy states. We use the Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure for fair valuation in the incomplete market setting. The paper is complemented with some numerical examples to highlight the implications of our model on pricing these guarantees.     

Discrete credit barrier models

The model introduced in this article is designed to provide a consistent representation for both the real-world and pricing measures for the credit process. We find that good agreement with historical and market data can be achieved across all credit ratings simultaneously. The model is characterized by an underlying stochastic process that takes on values on a discrete lattice and represents credit quality. Rating transitions are associated with barrier crossings and default events are associated with an absorbing state. The stochastic process has state-dependent volatility and jumps which are estimated by using empirical migration and default rates. A risk-neutralizing drift is estimated to consistently match the average spread curves corresponding to all the various ratings.     

The impact of the global financial crisis on the cross-currency linkage of LIBOR–OIS spreads

This article examines the impact of global financial crisis on cross-currency linkage of the LIBOR–OIS spread, a financial stress measure in interbank markets. The impulse response analysis is conducted in a multivariate setting, adopting the bias-corrected bootstrap as a means of statistical inference. The overall evidence suggests that the crisis has substantially changed the nature of the cross-currency interactions in liquidity stress. Also global money markets have failed to contain stress in US dollar funding and the role of the Japanese yen as a liquidity source appears to be significant, while these two currencies drive the cross-currency system of liquidity stress.     

Cost comparisons of reduced-impact and conventional logging in the tropics

Comparisons of the costs of reduced-impact (RIL) and conventional logging (CL) based on new data from Gabon and 10 previously published studies revealed that some tropical forest operators should adopt RIL out of financial self-interest but many may require other motivation. Among the comparisons in which costs were expressed per cubic meter of harvested timber, three reported lower costs for RIL, one showed identical costs with CL, and six reported RIL to be more costly.     

Sterling’s rise: A case of delayed overshooting?

In this article Francis Breedon discusses how sterling’s rise over the last 6 months can be explained in terms of a delayed overshooting reaction to past monetary policy. Although the timing is still hard to judge, it seems that this effect should now begin to wear off, allowing sterling to fall – particularly against the DM. As far as future monetary policy is concerned, this delayed overshoot is another argument for the Treasury and Bank of England undertaking a more activist exchange rate policy, perhaps following the example of another open economy on the fringes of EMU – Switzerland.     

Employer Policies and Organizational Commitment in Britain 1992–97

An important current of thinking in the last decade has emphasized the need for a shift from control to commitment as the central objective of management employment policies. This paper is concerned to assess whether there was a significant increase in British employees' commitment to their organizations in the 1990s, using comparative data from two large-scale and nationally representative surveys carried out in 1992 and 1997. It finds that there was no evidence of an increase in commitment over the period. As in the early part of the decade, employees had only a weak level of attachment to their organizations. The analysis examines a number of factors that have been seen as important determinants of such commitment: changes in the level of skill, task discretion, controls over work performance, and forms of employee involvement. While there were changes in some of these factors that encouraged higher commitment, these were largely cancelled out by a notable decline in the discretion that employees were allowed to exercise over their work.